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Crude Evaluation

Crude evaluation for refinery planners: the model’s value stays on top, and the cargo is pushed through the plant to show what the model cannot see.

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Follow one heavy cargo from offer to committee ↓
The problem

A break-even in hours, and an assay nobody asked the age of

An offer reaches the trading desk with a clock on it. The planner runs a case against the base basket and gets a break-even. The model is right about what it knows: yields, product prices, blend limits. It rests on whatever assay is loaded, and few people ask how old that is.

The rest is phone calls. Process and corrosion say what they remember. If there is time, someone searches run logs and shift notes for the last time this crude ran. A heavy crude beside a light paraffinic one gives an average gravity that looks normal while the tank behaves badly. The committee sees a slide and a number, the cargo runs, and nobody holds the paper up against the logs afterwards.

Built forCrude plannersPlanning managersProcess engineersCorrosion engineers

The Problem Today

A model values a crude in hours, but the proof about it sits in assays, logs and shift notes nobody has time to read.

$96.7M
a year for each $1 a barrel at 265,000 barrels a day our estimate

Read by hand today

  • Assays
  • Run logs
  • Shift notes
  • Lab results
  • Averages hide the blendSame gravity at two shares, far more heavy crude
  • Last run is not in the modelA past upset lives in a shift note, if anyone looks

The Solution

  1. Push the cargo throughEach model case runs across the unit limits, each sum shown
  2. Last time we ran itPast runs and near relatives, found in logs, lab results and shift notes
  3. How old is the assayAge and source shown, and seller certificates set against it
  4. The committee decidesThe planner proposes, two engineers concur, a second person signs

Built-in controls

  • Agents never change the slate
  • The signer opens each record before signing
  • Unit questions go to the engineer who owns the unit

What You Get

Planners take the value to committee with its blind spots beside it, and the reasons stay on the record.

$718K
cost of the last run of this crude, our sum on sample prices our estimate
  • Thin records said plainlyNo record is never read as no problem
  • One queue for each month’s cargoesRoutine ones signed on an opened sample
  • A look back after each cargoWhat the paper said against what the logs said
One offer, one committee

Crude evaluation of one heavy cargo: four limits past the line, then none

A heavy, sour, acidic grade is offered in two parcels of 1,000,000 barrels at a discount. The model likes it at 30% of the slate. The committee sits in two days.

demoThe refinery, the crudes, the cargo, the people and the prices are sample data. Every crude name and code is fictional.

  1. 0109:20

    +$1.85 a barrel at 30%, and four limits past the line beside it

    Crude planner

    The model’s value sits on top as the model gave it: break-even $62.82 against $60.97 delivered, $3,700,000 on paper for two parcels. Below it the cargo is pushed through the crude train and the units. Desalter salt out reads 173% of its limit, the hot preheat stability 125%, the overhead chloride 126%, and the hydrocracker’s feed nitrogen 102%. The model sees none of those four.

  2. 0209:22

    The assay behind the $1.85 is 9.6 years old

    Crude planner

    The model still runs the 2016 assay. Seller certificates since then show the crude heavier and more sour each time: down 1.1 API, up 0.29 wt% sulfur, salt up 8 PTB. The assay itself never tested organic chloride or asphaltene stability. Over the site’s age limit, no proposal can leave the planner’s desk until a fresh check is ordered, so he orders one.

  3. 0309:23

    Last time, the preheat held until the light paraffinic crude joined the tank

    Run historian

    The 2021 run is drawn day by day. For 15 days the heavy grade sat in the tank with a medium sweet crude and the desalter held. Then the light paraffinic crude went into the same tank and the stability reading fell to 1.08. Three days of desalter upset followed, then the preheat lost 29 °F. The historian also names the thin spots: one other run is a single line.

  4. 0409:24

    Charge cut from 265,000 to 225,000 b/d for 34.6 hours

    Crude planner

    He opens the unit run log the chart is drawn from. It gives the tank change at 23:00, the rag layer, the charge cut and the furnace inlet falling. Lost charge, slops, extra fuel and cleaning two exchangers come to $718,000, our sum on sample prices. The model valued that run at $1.30 a barrel. The cost sits beside the value as a record, not netted against it.

  5. 0509:27

    15% in one parcel: none past the limit, two within 2%

    Crude planner

    He chooses the 15% case and ticks his reasons: run history, unit limit, assay age, blend stability. The tank plan puts the heavy grade with a medium sour crude and keeps the light paraffinic crude in another tank, heavier crude in first. Stability reads 1.41 against a 1.40 floor, and the flow sheet calls that number thin: one lab test from 2021. The cut gives up $1,600,000 of model value on paper.

  6. 0609:31

    Two concurrences, each after opening the records on that engineer’s units

    Process and corrosion engineers

    The unit process engineer opens the 2021 run log, the desalter removal curve and the stability test, then concurs: heavy share and stability read against the 2021 run. The corrosion engineer opens the circuit inspection and the damage review and concurs on overhead and acid. A limit past the line would have needed a written exception instead of a plain concurrence.

  7. 07Committee, 14:21

    Signed at 15%, one parcel, $60,970,000, with her reason on the record

    Planning manager

    The chair cannot sign until she opens the model case, the assay, the 2021 run log and the hydrocracker guarantee herself. The paper is frozen at the ruling. She signs with her reason: the 2021 record outweighs the paper value. It goes to scheduling, and the record downloads with who agreed to what.

  8. 08After signing

    +$2.10 a barrel at 15%, and nothing past the line

    Crude planner

    Back on the flow sheet, the signed case is pushed through again: 0 past the limit, 2 within 2% of the line, 5 close, 12 clear. The hot preheat sits at 99% and the hydrocracker at 98%, and the panel says which of these the model cannot see. A watch list carries the two close ones into the run.

What the 2021 run cost, line by line

Our sum on sample prices, from the run log and the work order. It records one run; it is no forecast, and it is kept apart from the model’s value.

Lost charge40,000 b/d × 34.6 hours, about 57,600 barrels at a $7.50 sample margin$432,000
Slops18,000 bbl × $4.00 sample$72,000
Extra furnace fuel13 °F average extra loss over 20 days, at $3.50 sample$46,000
Cleaning two exchangers$168,000
Total$718,000

estimatedOur estimate.

Around the cargo

Breakeven, blend sums and the crude library behind each signature

The rest of the planning desk’s screens on the same offer.

The $1.85, line by lineMarker, discount, freight, terminal and losses to $60.97 delivered, against the model’s break-even. Read from the case files, untouched.
The blend, worked outEach crude’s share and properties, and the sums for gravity, sulfur, stability and heavy share. Nearly the same average gravity across cases, very different heavy share.
One limit, four casesSalt out at the desalter, the sum at 15%, and each case against the 1.5 PTB limit. The unit’s process engineer owns the call, and a question goes to him.
The crude libraryApproved crudes with their latest assay, runs on record and stability data. Those over the age limit are marked, and two are on hold.
The decisions, in orderThe fresh check ordered, the proposal, both concurrences and the signature, each with who and when. Records opened and agent steps sit on their own tabs.
Rules a second person signsAssay age limit, stability floor, bulk sample size and retention. The planner proposes with a reason, the planning manager signs, and no rule loosens while a paper is open.

demoSample data, from the working solution.

Planner proposes, unit engineers concur, the chair signs

Nobody signs their own proposal, and each signer opens the records first.

Crude planner
Sees
The flow sheet, the last run and the assay
Signs
Proposes the case, with reasons and a tank plan; orders a fresh assay check
Unit process engineer
Sees
Desalter and preheat limits, the run log and removal curve
Signs
Concurs or objects; a limit past the line needs a written exception
Corrosion engineer
Sees
Overhead chloride, acid number, inspection and damage review
Signs
Concurs or objects on metal
Planning manager
Sees
The paper frozen at the ruling, and four records to open
Signs
Signs, sends back or rejects, with a reason; signs rule changes
Internal auditor
Sees
Every record, opening and signature
Signs
Nothing; downloads the evidence file
The agents

Six agents read cases, assays and logs, and none of them runs the model

The planning model stays the engine. The agents bring what sits around it.

Case reader

Reads each planning model case file: value, slate and assay used.

  • Never runs the model
  • Never edits a case
Assay checker

Finds the assay behind each value, its age and source, and sets seller certificates against it.

  • Never replaces an assay value
Run historian

Finds past runs and near relatives in run logs, lab results and shift notes, and names thin spots.

  • Never names a cause it cannot show
  • Never reads no record as no problem
Limit checker

Pushes each case through the unit limits and shows each sum.

  • Never changes a limit or the slate
  • Never says a crude is safe
Paper drafter

Drafts the committee paper from the case the planner chose, each value cited.

  • Never chooses the case
Look-back agent

Compares the paper with the logs after a run and proposes a note.

  • Never edits an assay or a limit

Case files, assays, run logs and inspection records, read where they sit

Standards text is licensed, and you load your own copies.

Planning model case filesValues, slates and the assay each case used
Assay library and seller certificatesWhole crude and cuts, with sample dates
Run logs and shift notesWhat happened the last time a crude ran
Lab results and historianSalt out, stability tests, furnace inlet
Inspection and damage reviewsCircuit readings and the sulfur and acid they assumed

What crude planners ask about crude evaluation

What is crude evaluation software for a refinery?

Crude evaluation software puts the evidence beside a crude’s model value before the committee buys it. This solution keeps the planning model’s value on top, then pushes the cargo through the refinery’s own limits, shows the assay’s age, finds the last time the crude ran, and records who agreed and why.

Does it replace our planning model?

No. The model stays the engine, and its numbers are read from its case files untouched. Agents do not run it or edit a case. What the screens add is what the model cannot see: limits outside it, the age of the assay, past runs and tank blends.

How does it handle opportunity crude evaluation?

Opportunity crudes are where the model and the plant disagree most. Each case is pushed through desalter, preheat, overhead and unit limits, with the sum for each. The run historian looks for past runs and near relatives, and says plainly when the record is thin.

What about crude oil compatibility in the tanks?

The blend sums read stability for the whole charge and for each tank where crudes actually meet, and take the lower. A tank plan in the proposal keeps a poor pairing apart and says which crude goes in first.

What if the crude assay is old?

Over the age limit, no proposal leaves the planner’s desk until a fresh check is ordered. Seller certificates are set against the assay so the drift is visible, and what the assay never tested is listed.

Who signs a refinery crude selection?

The planner proposes. Then the unit process engineer and the corrosion engineer concur or object, each after opening the records on their units. Last, the planning manager signs after opening her own set, with a reason that stays on the record.

Can the assistant say whether a unit can take a crude?

No. A question about whether a unit can take a crude goes to the engineer who owns that unit, with no figures back.

Refining & Petrochemicals

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Certificate of Analysis Review

Held before it loads, when the sample no longer describes the tank.

1-min demoCatalyst Management

Read the guarantee before it lapses, and claim the credit it owes from one clause and one sum.

1-min demoOff-Spec Fuel Claims

Every bottle asked for before it is thrown away, and counsel signing what goes out.

1-min demo

Bring one offer
and the logs from its last run.

We’ll push it through your own flow sheet and limits with you.

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