SystemStudent Success, Advising & Experiential Learning

Early Alert & Student Retention

An early alert system that opens a case only when two independent sources agree, cites every warning sign to its record, and sends nothing until the coach approves

Every student at risk reached within two days, each warning sign cited to its record.

See one case, screen by screen ↓
target2business daysfrom a knot to a first contact the coach approves
demo112signalsfrom a single source, watched overnight on this sample day, with nothing sent to any student
demo1.87×the all-student case-open rate for evening sections, so the Equity agent paused rule R-07 for them
typical69.1%of the fall 2024 U.S. starting cohort were still at their starting institution a year later
In short

What is Early Alert & Student Retention?

Early Alert & Student Retention is an early alert system for college advisors and success coaches. Agents read instructor flags, LMS logins, the gradebook, holds and attendance every night, open one retention case per student only when two independent sources agree, and draft the outreach and the fix for each blocker. The student's own coach approves every message, and the office that owns a blocker signs its release.

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Updated

The problem

Why an early alert system reaches students too late

An early alert system is only as good as the signals it puts together, and at most colleges those signals sit in five systems owned by five offices. A student stops logging in to the learning management system, scores 54% on a midterm, and finds a library hold that blocks spring registration. The progress report lives in the advising CRM, the logins in the LMS, the grade in the gradebook, the hold in the student information system, the attendance in the card-scan system. Instructors flag unevenly, coaches carry caseloads near 300, and by the time someone puts the facts together the student has stopped coming.

Two things make it worse. One flag is a weak signal and a strong label: many tools open a case and send an automated message on a single missed lab, so students learn to ignore the messages and faculty stop flagging. And the blocker belongs to another office, so a $380 charge that Student Accounts could move to a payment plan in an hour waits while the coach finds the policy and emails the office. Early Alert & Student Retention puts eight agents in front of that work: they watch, corroborate, cite and draft, and the student's own coach decides.

typical55.0%retention for community college students who started in fall 2022, the lowest of any sector
typical45.7%retention for part-time community college starters in the same cohort
typical296studentsthe median advising load per advisor
Where the business days go between the first warning sign and a first contactestimated
By hand9.5 days
With the solution1.4 days
  • Noticing the warning signs across five systems3 → 0.1 d
  • Deciding whether one flag is a real concern1 → 0.1 d
  • Writing the outreach, and translating it into the student's language0.5 → 0.1 d
  • Finding the blocker's policy and the office that owns it2 → 0.1 d
  • Waiting for the owning office to release the hold3 → 1 d

Estimated split for one student whose warning signs come from three sources, by hand and with the agents, in business days. The 'after' column is about a day and a half, inside the two-business-day first-contact standard; our estimate, kept modest.

How it works

How one student becomes one case

Five Watchers read their own sources, a Corroborator opens a case only on two, a Resolver drafts the fix; the coach approves.

What comes in
Five sources, every night5 strands · flags, logins, grades, holds, attendance
Agents at work
Five Watchersone per source
Then
Corroboratortwo independent sources
Then
Resolveroutreach + blocker fix
Equity agentpauses an over-flagging rule
A person decides
Coach approves, the owning office signsevery message, every hold release
What comes out
Student reached
Blocker cleared
Evidence pack
One case, step by step

One student, through the early alert system from three warning signs to a cleared hold

Jordan Teague, Brandvale ID 0418236, is a first-year pre-nursing student on North Campus who prefers Spanish. Here is what happens on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, week 6 of the fall term, screen by screen, in the working solution.

  1. 01Overnight

    Five sources read overnight, one Watcher each

    Five Watchers

    One Watcher per source read 54,210 LMS events, 31 instructor flags, 18 new holds and 9,840 attendance scans. The Corroborator opened 38 cases across the college, 5 on Renée Okafor's caseload, and merged 3 duplicate signals. The West Campus attendance feed did not arrive at 2:00 AM, so those strands are drawn as unknown.

    The Attendance Watcher never reports a missing feed as present or absent; it reports unknown.

  2. 02The same night

    One signal is watched, never sent

    Corroborator

    112 single-source signals opened no case, and each says why. Brianna Castillo has one BIO 141 flag and every other source fine. Mateo Ibarra has a MAT 121 flag and a MAT 121 gradebook reading, but both come from the same instructor, so rule R-06 counts them as one source. Every row reads "Nothing sent".

  3. 036:12 AM

    Three independent sources knot into case EA-26F-1148

    Corroborator

    In week 6, three of Jordan's five strands went bad, from three independent sources: no LMS login for 9 days, 54% on the BIO 141 midterm worth 20% of the grade, and a $380 library replacement charge that blocks spring registration. One missed lab is only watched, and the week-5 progress reports say "No concern". Under rule R-01 v3 the strands knot and the case opens.

  4. 04One click

    Every strand opens the line it came from

    Renée Okafor · Success coach

    Renée clicks the citation LMS-LOG-0418236 and the access log opens read-only, with the cited line highlighted: logins on September 17, 19 and 21 in BIO 141-03, the Lab 4 report submitted on the 21st, then nothing.

    2026-09-22 → 2026-09-30: no sessions for 9 days (rule R-02: 7 days during term)

  5. 056:14 AM

    The fix for the hold, and a text in Spanish with the English beside it

    Resolver

    The Resolver found Student Accounts policy SA-7, which lets a library replacement charge under $500 move to a payment plan with the registration hold released while the student has an open success case, and drafted the request. It wrote Jordan a text in Spanish, his preferred language from the student information system, with the English beside it. The checks under the draft: no grade, no balance, consent on file, outside quiet hours.

    The Resolver never sends a message, releases a hold, or puts a grade or a balance in a text.

  6. 0610:14 AM

    The coach approves both, and the student answers

    Renée Okafor · Success coach

    Renée reads the three cited records and approves the text and the hold-release request with reason code OA-1, approved as drafted. The two-way texting platform delivers it at 10:14 AM, and Jordan replies at 10:31 AM. Renée books Thursday, October 1, at 2:00 PM.

    Sí, el jueves a las 2 está bien. Gracias (Yes, Thursday at 2 works. Thanks)

  7. 0711:02 AM

    Student Accounts, not the coach, releases the hold

    Priya Raman · Student Accounts Manager

    The coach can ask; only Student Accounts can release. Priya releases the hold under SA-7 and opens payment plan PP-26-0912, three payments of $126.67, the first due November 15, before spring priority registration opens on November 2. Jordan's first contact came 4 hours after his case opened.

  8. 08Later that day

    The instructor sees the loop close, and nothing more

    Prof. Daniel Ortiz · Instructor, BIO 141

    Prof. Ortiz sees only his own sections and his own gradebook. When he flags Jordan for low grades, he is told what happened in plain words, without seeing the case. His other flags this term show their outcomes: watched, a coach is in touch, closed.

    Recorded. Your flag and your own gradebook count as one source (rule R-06), and a coach is already in touch.

  9. 09Every Monday

    A weekly equity brake on every rule

    Equity agent

    On Monday, September 28, evening sections opened cases at 11.4%, 1.87× the all-student rate of 6.1%, over the 1.25× threshold, so the Equity agent paused rule R-07 for them. The cause: West Campus evening rosters entered 3.4 days late on average. Marcus Bell's proposed fix, R-07 v5, was replayed on weeks 1–5: 56 of 141 evening cases would not have opened, and the ratio falls to 1.13×. Only the dean, Dr. Teresa Lindqvist, can approve it.

  10. 10Audit-ready

    Every signal, draft, approval and disclosure on the record

    Grace Whitfield · Director of Institutional Research

    Switched to Grace's role, every Approve, Release and Confirm button is gone. The trail for September 30 runs from the Watchers' readings at 2:10 AM through the Corroborator, the Resolver, Renée's approval, the delivery, Jordan's reply and Priya's release, and the evidence pack with the FERPA disclosure log downloads in one click.

Who it’s for

Built for everyone who answers for a student at risk.

The same week-6 morning, seen by the five people who carry it, from the coach's caseload to the census file: what their day looked like, and what it looks like now.

RO
Renée OkaforSuccess coach, North Campus pre-health and nursing pathway · 318 students, 23 open cases
Success coach
Before
Opens five systems to see one student, between appointments and drop-ins, and writes each check-in in English and Spanish herself.
Now
Starts with the newest knots on her caseload, each strand cited to its record, and approves a drafted text and the fix for the hold in one decision.
MB
Marcus BellDirector of Advising · 43 coaches on three campuses
Director of Advising
Before
Learns which cases are late after the student is gone, and owns a two-day first-contact standard he cannot see.
Now
Sees first contact on time across every coach, the overdue cases escalated to him, and the withdrawals that wait for his confirmation, never the drafting coach's.
TL
Dr. Teresa LindqvistDean of Student Success · owns the rules and the Title III retention goal
Dean of Student Success
Before
Has no week-by-week view of whether a rule labels one group of students more than another.
Now
Approves every rule change, and sees a paused rule, its cause and a replayed fix before she signs.
PR
Priya RamanStudent Accounts Manager · holds, payment plans and releases
Student Accounts Manager
Before
Gets hold questions by email from coaches, without the policy that allows the release.
Now
Receives each hold-release request with the policy cited and the coach's approval on it, and signs every release herself.
GW
Grace WhitfieldDirector of Institutional Research · reads and exports, never changes
Director of Institutional Research
Before
Is asked for retention numbers for grant and program-review reports without the cohort and the census file behind them.
Now
Reads persistence for students with and without a case, cited to the frozen census file, and exports the report.
Built on the engine

8 agents. Each with one job, and hard limits.

Five Watchers read their own sources, a Corroborator opens a case only on two, a Resolver drafts the fix; the coach approves.

Flag Watcher

Reads instructor progress reports and early flags every night, one strand reading per student per week, with the report cited.

  • Never treats one flag as a case
  • Never shows a flag to anyone but the coach and the instructor
LMS Watcher

Reads LMS access logs and submissions against the term calendar, about 6 million events a term, citing the log line.

  • Never reads message or discussion content
  • Never counts a break week as inactivity
Gradebook Watcher

Reads gradebook entries with each assessment's weight from the syllabus.

  • Never puts a grade in any message
  • Never reads a course outside the student's schedule
Holds Watcher

Reads student information system holds, the aid document checklist and next-term registration barriers.

  • Never changes or releases a hold
Attendance Watcher

Reads card scans and paper rosters for every section.

  • Never reports a missing feed as present or absent; it reports unknown
Corroborator

Opens one case per student when two independent sources go bad in the same week, and merges duplicate signals.

  • Never opens a case on one source
  • Never opens a second case for the same student
Resolver

Drafts outreach in the student's preferred language with the English beside it, and finds the fix for each blocker under the owning office's policy.

  • Never sends a message
  • Never releases a hold
  • Never puts a grade or a balance in a text
Equity agent

Every Monday compares case-open rates by student group, pauses a rule over 1.25× the all-student rate, replays proposed fixes on past weeks, and measures persistence against the census.

  • Never re-enables a paused rule
  • Never uses a protected characteristic as a signal
Success coach

Approves every message; Student Accounts signs every release. The agents propose; a named person decides.

Ask in plain words

Ask about any student, strand, rule or office

Ask about any student, strand, rule or office on your caseload, or say what to change. Every answer points to its records, and a change comes back for the right person to approve.

Why did Jordan Teague's case open?

Three independent sources went bad in week 6. LMS: no login for 9 days, last session Sep 21, 11:47 PM. Grades: 54% on the BIO 141 midterm, worth 20%. Holds: a $380 library charge blocking spring registration. Attendance is only watched (one lab) and the flags are clear, so they did not count. Rule R-01 v3.

Which of my cases need me today?

Seven. Six drafts to approve: Jordan Teague, Amara Nwosu, Luis Ferrer Ortega, Kayla Brooks, Minh Anh Tran and Ricardo Salinas. One closure to draft: Abdi Hassan, back on track. Ricardo's first contact is due today at 5:00 PM; his first draft was rejected Monday for length.

Why is rule R-07 paused for evening sections?

Evening sections opened cases at 11.4%, 1.87× the all-student 6.1%, over the 1.25× threshold. West Campus evening rosters are entered 3.4 days late on average, so present students read as absent. Marcus Bell proposed a 72-hour wait; the dean approves it after a replay.

Which holds on my caseload can be released under policy?

Two are open. Jordan Teague's $380 library charge under SA-7 (payment plan, hold released) and Hannah Okoro's $210 parking citations under SA-4. Sofia Marchetti's and Abdi Hassan's holds were already released. Student Accounts signs each release, not you.

Every screen

The working solution, as it ships.

13 screens from the working solution, on its sample data. Pick one to see it large.

The week-6 braid: five warning signs per student, and a case only where they knotEach row is one student on success coach Renée Okafor's caseload, with five strands across weeks 1–6: instructor flags, LMS logins, the gradebook, holds and attendance. A strand turns color when it goes bad; when two independent sources go bad in the same week they knot, and the row becomes a retention case. The open case sits beside the braid, each warning sign cited, with the drafted outreach under it.
One signal is watched, never sent112 single-source signals were watched overnight and opened no case. Each one says why: one instructor flag with every other source fine, a week without logins, a flag and a gradebook from the same instructor (one source under rule R-06), a source whose feed is unknown. Every row reads "Nothing sent".
Every strand opens the line it came fromA citation opens a read-only copy of the record with the cited line highlighted. Here the LMS access log shows Jordan Teague's last session on September 21 and the nine days with none after it, against rule R-02's seven days during term.
One retention case per student: the term so far, the records and how the agents built itCase EA-26F-1148 shows Jordan's braid at full size, the gradebook record with the BIO 141 midterm highlighted at 54/100, and the agents' run step by step: the five Watchers from 2:10 AM, the Corroborator at 6:12 AM with three independent sources, the Resolver at 6:14 AM with confidence 0.93, then the coach.
Outreach in the student's language, with the English beside itThe Resolver writes in the preferred language from the student information system and shows the English beside it, so the coach reads exactly what the student will read. The checks under every draft: no grade, no balance, consent on file, outside quiet hours. Approve and send, Edit, or Reject with a reason.
The coach approves, the text goes, and the student answersApproval is one click with a reason code, here OA-1 at 10:14 AM. The two-way texting platform delivers the text, and Jordan's reply at 10:31 AM lands in the same thread, in Spanish with the English under it.
Student Accounts, not the coach, releases the holdSigned in as Priya Raman, Student Accounts Manager. The release dialog names the $380 library replacement charge, policy SA-7, the coach's request at 10:14 AM and payment plan PP-26-0912, three payments of $126.67. Requests are answered within one business day.
The caseload, with every first-contact clock23 open cases among 318 students, each with the sources that agreed, when it opened, the two-business-day first-contact clock, the student's language and the next step. Chips filter by what needs the coach, and standard check-ins can be approved together after a preview.
The Director of Advising: late cases, load, and every withdrawal confirmed431 open cases across 43 coaches, first contact on time for 1,092 of 1,148 cases this term (95.1%), 7 overdue and escalated, and 3 closures marked "withdrew" that only the director can confirm, never the coach who drafted them.
Instructors flag their own sections and see the loop closeProf. Daniel Ortiz sees only BIO 141-03 and his own gradebook. A flag is one source: it never opens a case on its own, and the instructor is told what happened in plain words, without seeing the case.
A weekly equity check on every early alert ruleCase-open rates by student group against the all-student 6.1%. Every group is within the 1.25× threshold except evening sections, at 11.4% and 1.87×, so rule R-07 is paused for them. Marcus Bell's fix, replayed on weeks 1–5, brings the ratio to 1.13×; only the dean can approve it.
Who stayed, cited to the census fileFall 2025 pilot cases at the spring 2026 census: 79.8% of students reached within two business days persisted, 70.2% of those reached later, 87.5% of students with no case. Labeled as a comparison, not proof of cause, with exports for the Title III annual performance report, program review and an IPEDS retention check.
Every signal, draft, approval, release and disclosure on the recordWho, what, when, why and which evidence, for people and agents alike, filtered by people, agents or FERPA disclosures, with an evidence pack export for program review and grant reporting.
Governance

An early alert system that is cited, approved by a person and on the record.

Every role separated by dutyInstructors flag; coaches work their own caseload and approve outreach; Student Accounts releases holds; Financial Aid and the Registrar act on the blockers routed to them; the Director of Advising confirms withdrawals and rebalances load; the dean owns the rules; Institutional Research reads and exports; the administrator sets sources and versions and decides nothing about students.
A second person on every decision that mattersThe Resolver drafts and the coach approves every message. The coach requests and Student Accounts releases every hold. A coach drafts a "withdrew" closure and the director confirms it, never the coach who drafted it. A rule change is proposed and only the dean approves it.
Every warning sign cited to its recordEach strand opens the record it came from, read-only, with the line highlighted: the LMS access log, the gradebook entry, the hold. A feed that fails is drawn as unknown, and the Corroborator counts it as neither good news nor bad.
Access by legitimate educational interestAccess follows the college's annual FERPA notice: an instructor sees only their own sections and never a case, a coach sees only their caseload, every view of a case is logged, and every disclosure outside the advising team goes on the disclosure log.
An equity brake no agent can liftVersioned prompts and models for every agent, confidence thresholds below which a person reads the record, and reason codes on every approval and rejection. A rule the Equity agent pauses stays paused until the dean approves a fix that has been replayed on past weeks.
A full audit trail, exportable in one clickWho, what, when, why and which evidence, for people and agents alike, filtered by people, agents or disclosures, with an evidence pack for program review and Title III grant reporting. A confirmed withdrawal sends Financial Aid the last date of academic activity, cited to the LMS record.
Configuration

Your early alert rules and standards, not ours

The clocks, the messaging rules and how far the agents may go are settings, changed only by the administrator, each change saved as a new version and on the record. The signal rules themselves belong to the dean.

SettingDefaultChoose from
First contact2 business days from the moment a case opensStepped by one business day
Escalate to the Director of AdvisingWhen first contact is 3 days lateStepped by one day
Hold-release requests answered by Student Accounts1 business dayStepped by one business day
Withdrew closures confirmed by the Director of Advising3 daysStepped by one day
Equity threshold1.25× the all-student case-open rateStepped by 0.05×; a rule above it is paused for that group
Agent confidence threshold0.85 or 0.90, set per agentBelow it, a person reads the record
TextsConsent on file; no grade and no balanceBoth locked by policy; quiet hours 8 PM–8 AM on or off
Case records kept5 years after the student's last termDisclosure log locked on; legal hold; redact names on export by default
Connections

Works with the systems a student success office already runs on

Student information systemenrollment, holds, the aid checklist and the preferred language
Learning management systemaccess logs, submissions and the gradebook
Attendance systemcard scans and paper rosters on three campuses
Advising CRMprogress reports, flags, appointments and notes
Two-way texting platformtexts sent after approval, replies and consent
Student accounts (bursar) modulehold releases and payment plans
What it changes

The difference, in numbers.

Every figure is labelled: a target the solution is built to, an estimate, a typical published result, or a proven one.

target
2days
from a knot to a first contact the coach approves
Todayalerts read in weekly batches
With agents≤ 2 business days
estimated
41students
kept for each point of fall-to-fall retention, about $160K a year in tuition
target
Everyweek
every rule checked for over-flagging any student group, paused until the dean signs

Sources: National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, Persistence and Retention reports (69.1% of the fall 2024 cohort still at their starting institution in fall 2025; community college retention 55.0% for fall 2022 starters and 45.7% for part-time starters, June 27, 2024) · NACADA, median advising load of 296 students per advisor · FERPA, 34 CFR 99.31(a)(1) and 99.32 · Title IV return of funds, 34 CFR 668.22. Rules R-01 to R-08, policies SA-4 and SA-7 and reason codes OA and RJ are the working solution's sample rules, not any one college's. "demo" = seen in the working solution, on its sample data · "target" = design goal, measured in the live solution · "typical" = published figures · "estimated" = our split of the days. Brandvale Community College, its campuses, students and the people named on this page are fictional: characters and sample data in the working solution.

Questions

What student success offices ask about early alert systems.

What is Early Alert & Student Retention?

Early Alert & Student Retention is an early alert system for college advisors and success coaches. Agents read instructor flags, LMS logins, the gradebook, holds and attendance every night, open one retention case per student only when two independent sources agree, and draft the outreach and the fix for each blocker. The student's own coach approves every message, and the office that owns a blocker signs its release.

What is an early alert system in higher education?

An early alert system brings together the warning signs that a student may leave, such as a progress-report flag, days without an LMS login, a low grade, a registration hold or missed classes, so an advisor can reach the student while there is time to help. In this solution each warning sign is a strand cited to its record, and a case opens only when the strands from independent sources agree in the same week.

Does one instructor's flag open a case or send the student a message?

No. A single-source signal is watched and nothing is sent; on the sample day 112 were watched overnight and every one can be listed with its reason. Under rule R-06 an instructor's flag and the same instructor's gradebook count as one source, and a feed that fails is drawn as unknown rather than read as fine.

How does it help improve student retention in higher education?

It aims to reach every student at risk within the two-business-day first-contact standard, in the student's preferred language, with the blocker already routed to the office that owns it. In the sample data, 79.8% of fall 2025 pilot students reached within two business days persisted to the spring census, against 70.2% of those reached later; the screen labels this a comparison, not proof of cause.

Can early alert software over-flag some groups of students?

It can, which is why the Equity agent compares case-open rates by student group every Monday. A rule that flags a group at more than 1.25× the all-student rate is paused for that group, its cause is shown, and a proposed fix is replayed on past weeks before the dean decides. No agent can re-enable a paused rule, and no protected characteristic is used as a signal.

Which systems does the early alert system connect to?

The student information system, the learning management system and its gradebook, the attendance system, the advising CRM, a two-way texting platform and the student accounts (bursar) module. Each source shows its last run and state, and a failed feed is shown as unknown, never fine.

Do people stay in control, or do the agents decide?

People decide. Agents watch, corroborate, cite and draft; the coach approves every message with a reason code, Student Accounts releases every hold, the Director of Advising confirms every "withdrew" closure, and the dean approves every rule change. A rejected draft goes back to the Resolver with its reason, such as RJ-2, tone or length.

How does Early Alert & Student Retention go live?

The Agentic Solution Engine builds and deploys it from your requirements and documents: your signal rules, first-contact standard, office policies, message rules and role assignments. It goes live once every quality gate has passed, connected to your student information system, learning management system, attendance system, advising CRM and texting platform.

See it on
your students' signals.

We'll run Early Alert & Student Retention on a sample of your own progress reports, LMS activity, gradebooks and holds.