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WorkflowShutdown, Turnaround & Outage

Turnaround Cost Estimating

Turnaround cost estimating that recuts past final reports into one breakdown, walks a bridge bar by bar to the estimate, and leaves each judgment to a named person.

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Follow one control estimate, move by move ↓
The problem

Turnaround cost estimating on reports that never counted cost alike

Each past final report kept cost its own way: by contractor, by discipline, by unit, by contract lot. A rate per job read straight from one is not a rate from another, so the next estimate gets factored up from the last report or two with a single ratio.

When scaffold was billed through the mechanical contractor, the mechanical rate carries it. Price the new scaffold from its take-off and it is counted twice. Emergent work, discovery and contingency sit in one bucket, so nothing sizes them, and when finance challenges the number the answers come from memory and old files.

Built forTurnaround cost engineersEstimating leadsFinance business partnersContracts specialistsInternal auditors

The Problem Today

Each past turnaround kept cost its own way, so the next estimate rests on rates nobody can compare.

16%
average turnaround overrun in one benchmarking database published
1–3 wks
to recut one final report by hand into a standard breakdown our estimate

Recut by hand today

  • Reports
  • Invoices
  • Contracts
  • Rates
  • Cost kept five waysContractor, unit, discipline and lot never line up
  • Scaffold counted twiceHidden in mechanical, then priced again from the take-off

The Solution

  1. Recut past reportsEach cost line placed in one breakdown, each move cited
  2. Bridge to the estimateScope, price, productivity, rates and contingency, bar by bar
  3. Turn the dialsThe range redraws as a person changes an assumption
  4. Gaps said plainlyWhere history cannot answer, agents say so and name who might

Built-in controls

  • Finance opens the bars it signs
  • Agents never apply a move
  • Agents never set the funding level

What You Get

Finance gets one estimate it can open bar by bar, with the doubts written down where it can read them.

  • Events that comparePast turnarounds recut into one nine-line breakdown
  • Scaffold priced onceFrom its own take-off, out of the mechanical rate
  • Two names on the estimatePrepared by the engineer, countersigned by finance
One control estimate, move by move

Turnaround cost estimating, eight days after scope freeze

A refinery’s coming turnaround takes 14 units down for 38 days. Agents have read six final reports and 28,340 cost records. The control estimate now has to reach finance with each bar open to its source.

demoPlant, estimators and every dollar shown are sample data.

  1. 01Before the move

    The bridge opens at $169.3M, and says why it should read $168.4M

    Turnaround cost engineer

    The walk starts at the last full-site turnaround’s final report, $92.6M as reported, and climbs bar by bar to the base and the range, with a dial under each assumption. Under the P50 sits one line: $168.4M once M-0147 is signed. One proposed move still changes the estimate, and the cost recutter names it before anyone touches a dial.

  2. 02Recut

    Five ways of counting cost, recut into one breakdown of nine lines

    Turnaround cost engineer

    Six final reports kept cost by contractor, discipline, unit, contract lot and work breakdown. The recut puts each line in one breakdown, and past totals stay as they were. Mechanical rate per job runs $20.3K to $26.9K as reported and $18.6K to $22.0K in one breakdown, tightening further only as proposed moves are signed. So far $36.7M is proposed in 186 moves, and $15.9M is settled.

  3. 03Scope bar

    Scaffold left in the mechanical rate counts twice on 376 added jobs

    Estimating lead

    The scope bar prices added items in three parts. Mechanical jobs use the rate per job, and scaffold for them comes from its own take-off. With $4.2M of scaffold still inside the mechanical rate, the bar carries it twice: 376 × $1,817 = $0.68M. The lead can check that sum and its three sources before anyone decides the move.

  4. 04The move

    1,128 invoice lines with one service code add up to $4,196,310

    Turnaround cost engineer

    The move opens beside its evidence: the mechanical contractor’s invoices, its contract and the final report page. Each scaffold bill carries the same service code, and the contract let the scaffold firm work under mechanical. Once signed, the rate per mechanical job falls from $16,696 to $14,879. Another 38 lines of access and rigging, $312,480, could be either, so they stay put, flagged.

  5. 05Countersign

    The engineer agrees, the lead opens three sources, and the P50 settles

    Estimating lead

    The cost engineer agrees, giving the reason that the invoices support it. Someone else has to countersign, so the estimating lead opens the final report, the invoices and the contract first. Then the bridge redraws: base $151.6M, P50 $168.4M, P10 $151.2M and P90 $197.6M, with $20.1M of past cost now settled.

  6. 06Range

    Three past events land above the P50, and the range shows each one

    Turnaround cost engineer

    Each dot under the curve is a past event’s growth over base, applied to this base. Three of six land below the P50 and three above. P70 at $177.9M covers four of six, and P80 at $185.4M covers five. Funding at the P50 is a company choice a person sets. The curve comes from 5,000 draws, labelled as sample data.

  7. 07Rate question

    A $0.2M question on the scaffold contract holds sign-off

    Contracts specialist

    An amendment sets the scaffold firm’s step at 5%, but the copy on file has one signature, not two. The rate checker shows what the paper says beside what the estimate uses, and leaves the reading alone. If it does not apply, the contractor bar falls $0.2M, which is over the $0.1M line that holds an estimate, so the contracts specialist rules first.

  8. 08Finance reads

    Finance reads 11.1% contingency against 12.2% used in past events

    Finance business partner

    Signing stays locked until finance opens the price escalation and contingency bars. Contingency is $16.8M in four parts: emergent $4.6M, discovery $6.8M, known estimating uncertainty $3.4M and true contingency $2.0M. Past budgets held 7.8% to 9.1% and used 12.2% on average. At 13.8%, the average without the short record, this bar would be $20.9M, and that judgment stays open.

  9. 09Sign-off

    Four holds ticked, and one judgment printed beside them

    Finance business partner

    The sign-off card lists what had to be true first: the move that changes the P50 settled, the rate question ruled, and both bars opened by the checker. Beside them sits the open judgment on contingency, with the small moves that do not change the P50. Because the engineer prepared the estimate, only finance can countersign it.

The like-for-like bridge, bar by bar to a $168.4M P50

Each bar opens its reasoning, its sum and its sources. The base event is the only past turnaround with all 14 units down.

Last full-site turnaround, final reportAs reported$92.6M
Like-for-like clean-upCapital tie-ins, a flare header repair, support charged twice−$5.4M
Scope change3,982 to 4,871 kept items+$19.5M
Price escalation3.3% a year over 8.5 years+$33.9M
ProductivityCraft labor only+$4.8M
Contractor ratesCraft labor only, from signed contracts+$6.2M
Base estimate$151.6M
P50, with contingencyBase plus $16.8M of contingency in four parts, 11.1% of base$168.4M

demoSample data, from the working solution.

Scaffold in mechanical, a short record and an amendment with one signature

Findings the estimate would have carried to finance without anyone opening the paper.

Scaffold inside mechanical

Invoice lines with a scaffold service code sat under the mechanical contractor, so the rate per job carried them.

A record that is short

Six boxes of cost records never reached storage, so that event is shown and used to set no rate.

An amendment with one signature

The scaffold rate step rests on a copy signed by one party, so contracts rules before sign-off.

Contingency history that will not split

Only two events coded change requests, and they are small ones, so the four parts rest on them.

demoSample data, from the working solution.

Around the estimate

Past events side by side, the gaps and a second route through job packs

Six more screens the estimating team, finance and auditors open around the bridge.

Six past events, like for likeEach event’s final report, what was taken out, contingency held and growth over base, per item restated to the coming year. The base event is marked.
What history cannot tell usFour questions the agents will not fill with an average, which events can answer each, and who has been asked to find out.
A second route through job packsThe base priced from drafted packs and past jobs: $149.3M against the bridge’s $151.6M, with the gap unit by unit.
Three versions and what changedRough order of magnitude, budget and control estimate, each with its range and two names, the walk from budget to control, and the basis of estimate download.
Audit trailEach proposal, decision, opened source and signature in order, with the person or agent named. Entries cannot be changed, and evidence exports from here.
Decision rulesThe sample a checker opens, the move size that holds an estimate, the bars finance must open and the funding level. The lead proposes and finance countersigns.

demoSample data, from the working solution.

Four signers and one reader, each opening something different first

The person who prepares a call cannot countersign it, and the checker opens the evidence before the button appears.

Turnaround cost engineer
Sees
Each bar, its dial and sources, and one proposed move at a time
Signs
Decides moves, turns dials and submits the estimate
Estimating lead
Sees
The sources behind each move, and a sample from the lot of small ones
Signs
Countersigns moves and lots, and proposes settings
Contracts specialist
Sees
What a signed contract or quote says beside what the estimate uses
Signs
Rules on contract readings
Finance business partner
Sees
The price escalation and contingency bars, before the sign button appears
Signs
Countersigns the estimate and any settings change
Internal auditor
Sees
The whole trail, including who opened what before signing
Signs
Nothing; reads and exports evidence
The agents

Seven agents recut, price and range the estimate, and none applies a move

Each hands its work to the next agent or to a named person.

Final report reader

Reads past final reports and their cost records, and ties each figure to its page.

  • Never fills a blank with a guess
Cost recutter

Maps each cost line to one breakdown and proposes moves with citations.

  • Never applies a move
  • Never changes a total
Like-for-like normalizer

Takes out what does not compare and restates cost to the coming year from your index sheet.

  • Never removes a cost without a citation
Scope pricer

Prices kept scope items from job packs and past jobs, and compares the result with the bridge.

  • Never invents hours for a job with no match
Rate checker

Reads contracts and quotes and compares their rates with the estimate.

  • Never settles a contract reading
Range builder

Draws the range and sizes the four parts of contingency.

  • Never sets the funding level
  • Never hides a tail
History checker

Says what past events cannot answer, and who might know.

  • Never fills a gap with an average

What cost engineers ask about turnaround cost estimating

What is turnaround cost estimating?

Turnaround cost estimating sets the budget for a planned shutdown from past actuals, scope, prices and risk. Here agents recut past final reports into one breakdown, build a bridge from a base event to the new estimate and draw the range. A cost engineer decides, an estimating lead countersigns moves, and finance countersigns the estimate.

How is turnaround contingency sized?

In four parts: emergent work, discovery work, known estimating uncertainty and true contingency. The range builder sets them beside what past budgets held and used, and says plainly when only a couple of events can split the parts. Where the company funds on the range is a choice a person makes.

How far can we trust a turnaround estimate built this way?

Turnaround estimate accuracy is shown, not promised. Each past event is placed on this range, so finance sees how often history came in above the P50. Every bar shows its sum and sources, and anything resting on judgment stays open on the sign-off card.

Can it give a shutdown budget estimate before job packs are drafted?

Yes. Versions run from a rough order of magnitude through a budget estimate to the control estimate. Until packs are drafted, items are priced from past jobs on the same equipment, and the screen says how many packs are real.

What happens when an old report filed cost in the wrong place?

The cost recutter proposes a move with its citations and its effect on the estimate. A person agrees, edits or rejects it with a reason, and the estimating lead countersigns. Past totals stay as they were; only where a cost sits changes.

Does it write to our ERP or turnaround system?

It reads cost postings from the ERP and work orders from the maintenance system, both read only, takes final reports and contracts from document management and the scope list and job packs from the turnaround management system. Its own audit trail and evidence export stay with the estimate.

Whose price index and cost breakdown does it use?

Yours. The index sheet and the breakdown shown here are samples you replace, and rates come from your own signed contracts and quotes.

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Bring the final report
you could never compare.

We’ll recut it with you, line by line, and show which move your next rate would need.

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