Most farm loans get a hard look once a year, at renewal. The weather, crop and cattle prices, and the farmer's bank balance change every week. Agricultural credit early warning means watching those weekly signals for every farm in the loan book, so a lender sees a borrower slipping months before a payment is missed, while there is still working capital left to fix it.
This guide is for anyone who lends to farms or answers for those loans: ag loan officers and ag lending managers, credit analysts, portfolio risk and loan review teams, special assets officers, chief credit officers at community banks and Farm Credit associations, and the leaders deciding whether to automate the watching. No background needed.
Imagine you are the ag lending manager at a community bank in Grand Island, Nebraska, responsible for 1,184 farm borrowers and $1.06 billion of farm loans. On the morning of Monday, October 12, 2026, one name sits at the top of this week's list: Voss Land & Cattle, a cow-calf customer near Grant in Perkins County. Nothing is past due. Its $1,850,000 operating line was rated 4, Acceptable, at renewal on March 1, and comes up again on March 1, 2027, 140 days away.
The bank's own records have been moving all summer. The pasture has been in extreme drought for 11 weeks. Since August the family has paid $148,600 for hay, against $11,200 a year earlier. On October 1 they deposited $356,160 from a sale barn for 212 bred cows, a third of the herd that secures an $868,000 cattle note, and the note was not paid down. The line is 96% drawn, against a usual 55% in October.
Early warning score · Voss Land & Cattle · Oct 12, 2026
Extreme drought on all pasture, 11 weeks
+20
212 bred cows sold, cattle note unpaid
+18
Line 96% drawn; October norm 55%
+15
Working capital down 69% since December
+13
Deposits down 41% on a year earlier
+9
$148,600 of hay bought since August
+8
Three overdrafts in September
+8
Wheat claim assigned to the bank
−6
418 calves to sell in November
−4
Score, up from 34 in July
81
4 · Acceptable on file6 · Special mention proposed140 days before renewal.
Re-projected at this year's herd and prices, the farm earns $428,280 to cover $498,000 of term loan payments: 0.86x, down from 1.31x last year. You move it to special mention; the watch-list committee sees it on October 20, and your loan officer is to visit and count the herd by October 23.
Early warning catches a third of the pledged herd sold and the money spent, 140 days before renewal, while 418 calves are still to sell and their proceeds can still go to the cattle note.
Agricultural credit early warning: how lenders spot a farm slipping between annual reviews
The signals that move first, the numbers lenders and the regional Federal Reserve banks publish, the ratios that show a farm slipping, the drought map, prices, crop insurance and payment timing, and the rules that apply once a farm is in trouble. No product is named in this part.
01 · In plain words
How a farm's trouble builds between one renewal and the next
A farm borrows in a rhythm. Each winter or spring the bank renews an operating line that pays for seed, fertilizer, feed and fuel. The farmer draws on it through the year and pays it down after harvest or after the calves are sold. Alongside it sit longer loans for land, cattle and machinery, usually paid once a year. At renewal a loan officer gathers the balance sheet and last year's results, projects the coming year, and gives the loan a risk rating. Then, for most farms, the file closes for another twelve months.
The things that decide whether the farm can pay do not wait twelve months. A drought settles over the county in June and the pasture stops growing. Corn falls below what it costs the farm to raise it. The farmer buys hay in August, sells cows in September, and runs the line higher than ever in October. Each shows up somewhere: on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor map, in the futures markets, in the bank's records of deposits and line balances, in a crop insurance claim. No rule makes anyone put them together.
Early warning is putting them together, farm by farm, often enough to matter. It asks, every week or every month: which borrowers' repayment capacity has changed since their last review, and why? The answer is a short, ranked list of farms to call, each with its reasons. The work after that is ordinary credit work: a visit, a new cash flow, a conversation about selling grain or applying cattle proceeds to the cattle note, sometimes a lower risk rating and a place on the bank's watch list.
The hard part is telling trouble from weather. A drought covers whole counties, and most farms inside it are insured, liquid and paying on time. Flag every farm in the drought and the list is useless. Flag none and the one farm that sold its cows to buy hay is found at renewal, when its working capital is gone. Good early warning reads drought, prices, insurance, payments and the farm's own habits together, and explains each flag in words a loan committee can check.
From renewal rating to watch list: one farm loan's year
Renewal and ratingMarch 1: the operating line is renewed at $1,850,000 and rated 4, Acceptable, on last year's 1.31x term debt coverage.
The season unfoldsThe pasture goes into extreme drought in July. Hay is bought in August. The line climbs.
The weekly watchWeather, prices, accounts, financials and insurance read together; the farm is flagged in October with seven reasons. This guide is about this step.
Review and watch listA watch-list review re-projects the year; the rating moves to special mention and the committee confirms an action plan.
Renewal, restructuring or worseBy March the farm has a destock plan and a new cash flow, or a restructured loan, or a file for special assets.
Step 3 is the subject of this guide. The farm, bank and figures in this example are fictional.
Deposits, first-quarter past dues and other farm credit surprises
A healthy deposit can be bad news
A cattle check or a grain check lands in the farm's account and the balance looks strong. If the cattle or grain were the bank's collateral and the money was not applied to the loan, the farm has just spent its security. The FDIC's examination manual expects procedures that make sure sale proceeds are applied to the debt they secure before the money is released for anything else.1
Past dues spike every first quarter
Many farm loans fall due once a year, around the turn of the year. Across all insured banks, farm production loans 30 to 89 days past due ran 0.76% in the first quarter of 2026 and 0.38% in the second.2 A late payment in January means less than the same late payment in June.
2026 farm income leans on Washington
USDA forecasts $47.4 billion of direct government payments in 2026, 70% more than in 2025, much of it one-time assistance.3 A cash flow that balances only because of a payment that will not repeat is weaker than its ratio says.
A crop insurance claim can skip the lender
Under the standard federal crop policy, an insurer pays a lender only if an assignment of indemnity is on the insurer's own form. Without it the insurer "will not make any payment to a lienholder", even when the lender's lien is recorded elsewhere.4
Working capital, term debt coverage, carryover and special mention
Working capital
Current assets less current liabilities: the farm's own cash cushion for the coming year. Lenders often divide it by acres or by gross revenue.
Term debt coverage
The cash a farm has left after expenses and family living, divided by the year's payments on its longer loans. 1.25x means $1.25 for every $1.00 due.
Carryover debt
Operating debt a farm could not repay from the year's production, rolled into the next line or into a longer loan.
Special mention
A rating for a loan with "potential weaknesses that deserve management's close attention", one step above a classified loan.1
Where a farm's trouble shows first: weather, markets, accounts, financials and programs
In shortEvery warning a lender can act on comes from one of five places. Weather and markets move first but say little about any one farm. The bank's own account records are specific to the farm and update daily. Financial statements are the most complete and the most out of date. Insurance and government program notices decide whether a bad year turns into a loss.
Family
What it shows
Where it comes from
How often
Weather and yield
Drought on the farm's own acres and pasture, weeks at each category, rainfall, the county's yield outlook
U.S. Drought Monitor, NOAA stations, USDA crop reports
Each crop and livestock price against the farm's own breakeven from its last cash flow
Futures settlements, local cash bids, USDA price forecasts
Daily
Accounts
Line use against the farm's seasonal pattern, deposit balances, overdrafts, late payments, unusual payments (hay, feed) and sale-barn or elevator deposits
The bank's core and loan systems
Daily
Financials
Working capital, current ratio, debt-to-asset, term debt coverage, the year re-projected
Crop insurance coverage, claims and assignments, unpaid premium, USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) and ad hoc payments
Insurance notices, FSA letters, borrower records
As they arrive
The signals that move first are the least specific to one farm
How each signal family rates on four things an early warning needs
LowMediumHigh
Moves earlyUpdates oftenAbout this farmExplains whyDrought mapHighHighLowMediumPrices against breakevenHighHighMediumMediumLine use and depositsMediumHighHighLowLate paymentsLowHighHighLowInterim financialsMediumLowHighHighInsurance and program noticesMediumMediumHighHigh
Our reading of the sources5,1,4,2 · Our reading of how each source is published and what it measures. A late payment is the most certain signal and the last to arrive.
Show the numbers
Moves early
Updates often
About this farm
Explains why
Drought map
High
High
Low
Medium
Prices against breakeven
High
High
Medium
Medium
Line use and deposits
Medium
High
High
Low
Late payments
Low
High
High
Low
Interim financials
Medium
Low
High
High
Insurance and program notices
Medium
Medium
High
High
A useful way to think about it: weather and markets say which farms could be hurt this season, accounts say which farms are behaving differently from their own normal, and financials and program notices say how much cushion each one has. A drought county with every farm insured and paying on time is an exposure to watch. A single farm whose line is 40 points above its usual October level, with a sale-barn deposit that never reached the cattle note, is a call to make this week.
Compare a farm with itself. A grain farm that sells in spring draws its line deep into winter every year; a cow-calf operation pays down in the fall when the calves sell. Compared with the average of the book, both look odd at the wrong times. Compared with their own last five years, each one shows the month that is different. The FDIC's data shows the same seasonality across the industry: first-quarter past dues on farm production loans were roughly double the second quarter's in 2024, 2025 and 2026.2
03 · The 2026 farm economy
Farm income in 2026: steady on paper, held up by government payments and squeezed by costs
USDA forecast of September 3, 2026
In shortUSDA's September forecast puts 2026 net cash farm income at $176.4 billion, almost unchanged from 2025, while expenses rise 4.5% and direct government payments rise 70% to $47.4 billion. Crop farms are squeezed; cattle prices are high because the herd keeps shrinking.6 Farm debt reaches $605.1 billion, $399.0 billion of it secured by real estate.7 The average hides wide differences between farms, which is why an ag book needs watching farm by farm.
$47.4B
direct government payments forecast for 2026, up $19.5 billion (69.8%) from 2025.3
USDA ERS, September 3, 2026
$605.1B
farm sector debt forecast at the end of 2026, up 4.6%; the debt-to-asset ratio rises to 13.54% from 13.34%.8
USDA ERS, September 3, 2026
15.0%
fall in the farm sector's working capital in 2025. USDA forecasts a 3.5% rise in 2026; the Farm Credit Administration's September briefing called liquidity "the 2026 pain point".8,9
USDA ERS; Farm Credit Administration
One-time disaster and bridge aid is the largest government payment in 2026
Direct government payments to farms forecast for 2026, $ billions
Supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistanceFarmer Bridge Assistance and 2025 disaster aid26.5
ARC and PLC (price and revenue programs)2025 crops, paid in October 202615.6
Two of those lines matter most to a lender. The first, $26.5 billion of supplemental and ad hoc assistance, is mostly the Farmer Bridge Assistance program and disaster aid from the American Relief Act of 2025.3 Bridge Assistance paid a flat rate per planted acre in 2025: $44.36 for corn, $30.88 for soybeans, $39.35 for wheat, expected by February 28, 2026.10
The second, $15.6 billion of ARC and PLC payments, is the 2025 crop's price support, paid after October 1, 2026; for the 2025 crop only, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act gave every enrolled farm the higher of the two programs.11 Neither is guaranteed to repeat.
Expenses and government payments both rise faster than crop sales in 2026
U.S. farm sector, $ billions, 2025 against the 2026 forecast
20252026 forecast
Production expenses471.6492.8
Crop cash receipts238.4253
Animal and product receipts303.7287.3
Direct government payments27.947.4
Source3 · 2025 crop and animal receipts are USDA's 2026 forecast less its stated change (our arithmetic). Cattle receipts rise 5.2% while total animal receipts fall.
Show the numbers
2025
2026 forecast
Production expenses
471.6
492.8
Crop cash receipts
238.4
253
Animal and product receipts
303.7
287.3
Direct government payments
27.9
47.4
Crops squeezed, cattle strong, and the difference inside one county
Fertilizer costs rise 15.3% in USDA's 2026 forecast, and production expenses rise $21.2 billion.3 Final 2025 marketing-year prices were $4.16 a bushel for corn, $10.50 for soybeans and $5.06 for wheat, all below their effective reference prices.11 In January, University of Illinois economists expected 2026 crop returns to stay negative for many grain farms because costs implied break-even prices above the market.10
Cattle are the other side. On January 1, 2026 the country had 86.2 million cattle and calves and 27.6 million beef cows, and the 2025 calf crop of 32.9 million was down 1.6%.6 USDA's October forecast, unchanged from September, puts fed steer prices at $225 per hundredweight in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $238 for 2027.12 A Kansas City Fed respondent in Nebraska summed it up in August: "Farmers are struggling significantly while ranchers are doing well this year."13
What a strong cattle market hides. In a drought, a rancher can sell bred cows into a high market. The deposit looks healthy and the farm may report a profit. But the herd that secures the cattle note is smaller, next year's calf crop is smaller, and if the money paid for hay rather than the note, the lender's position is weaker on every measure that matters.
04 · What the Fed surveys say
The Kansas City, Chicago and Minneapolis Fed ag credit surveys: repayment, renewals and carryover in 2025 and 2026
Each survey by report and date
In shortThree regional Federal Reserve banks survey farm lenders every quarter, and in 2025 and 2026 all three reported weaker repayment, more renewals and extensions, and more carryover. They are the earliest public read on farm credit, months ahead of bank call report data. Each asks its own questions, so compare a district with itself over time.
Survey and date
Covers
What it found
Chicago Fed, AgLetter No. 2011, February 2026 (Q4 2025)
Seventh District: all of Iowa and parts of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Wisconsin
Repayment index 69, renewals and extensions 134; 5.6% of farm loans with major or severe repayment problems, the highest since the second quarter of 2020; 3.8% of operating customers not likely to qualify for new operating credit.14
Chicago Fed, AgLetter No. 2012, May 2026 (Q1 2026)
104 lenders; from this quarter, banks and Farm Credit institutions (banks only before)
Repayment index 63, down from a year earlier for the tenth quarter running; renewals and extensions 136, the highest since 2020; 17% of borrowers carrying more carryover debt into 2026; an Iowa lender: "cash flow projections for many operations are at or below breakeven for 2026."15
Chicago Fed, AgLetter No. 2013, August 2026 (Q2 2026)
79 lenders
Repayment 73, renewals 124; 3.7% of the portfolio with major or severe problems, against 2.9% a year earlier; loan-to-deposit ratio 80.7%, the highest since records began in the 1970s; operating loans at 7.12%.16
Kansas City Fed, May 15, 2025 (Q1 2025)
Tenth District: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming and parts of New Mexico and Missouri; 117 lenders
Loans "requiring restructuring to support liquidity needs increased to more than 10% from about 5%"; about 20% of borrowers had debt increases not covered by operating revenue.17
Kansas City Fed, February 11, 2026 (Q4 2025)
106 lenders
About 45% of farm borrowers had current ratios below 1.5; demand for non-real estate farm loans grew at the fastest pace in about ten years.18
Kansas City Fed, August 14, 2026 (Q2 2026)
142 lenders
Under 10% of balances with major or severe repayment problems and about 15% with minor ones, slightly worse in Kansas and Nebraska; crop margins a concern for every crop but soybeans; cattle producers less affected.13
Minneapolis Fed, February 12, 2026 (Q4 2025)
Ninth District: Minnesota, Montana, the Dakotas, northwest Wisconsin and Michigan's Upper Peninsula
64% of lenders saw farm incomes fall; 44% saw lower repayment rates; 42% more renewals or extensions; 22% raised collateral requirements; a Minnesota lender: "We were blessed with good yields but still seeing cash flow shortages."19
Chicago Fed lenders saw renewals and extensions run high while repayment stayed weak
Seventh District diffusion indexes (100 = no change from a year earlier; below 100 = fewer lenders saw higher), by quarter
Loan renewals and extensionsLoan repayment rates
507510012515012473
Q4 24Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 25Q1 26Q2 26
Source16,15,14 · From the first quarter of 2026 the survey includes Farm Credit System institutions as well as banks, so later readings are not strictly comparable.
Show the numbers
Loan renewals and extensions
Loan repayment rates
Q4 24
130
64
Q1 25
133
61
Q2 25
135
71
Q3 25
134
64
Q4 25
134
69
Q1 26
136
63
Q2 26
124
73
Almost half of Tenth District farm borrowers had thin liquidity at the end of 2025
45 in 100
farm borrowers with current ratios below 1.5, as Kansas City Fed lenders reported for Q4 2025
farm borrowers with current ratios below 1.5, as Kansas City Fed lenders reported for Q4 2025
45 of 100
How to read a diffusion index
Each lender says whether repayment, renewals or demand is higher, the same or lower than a year earlier. The index is 100 plus the share answering "higher" minus the share answering "lower". In the first quarter of 2026, 38% of Chicago Fed respondents saw lower repayment rates and 1% saw higher, so the index read 63.15 The index counts how many lenders saw a change; how big the change was is a separate question.
The surveys also say why. A Nebraska banker told the Kansas City Fed in 2025: "Borrowers lost a lot of liquidity in 2024 and we had some restructuring for working capital shortfalls."17 An Iowa lender told the Chicago Fed in its May 2026 survey that "many borrowers are using up working capital to fund those cash flow shortfalls."15 That is the pattern early warning is built to catch: a farm living on its working capital looks current on its loans until the working capital runs out.
05 · Delinquency and classified loans
Farm loan delinquency in 2026: what FDIC bank data and Farm Credit System reports show
In shortDelinquency is still low by the standards of the farm crisis years, and it is rising slowly. Bank farm loans past due 90 days or on nonaccrual have climbed from their 2023 lows. At the Farm Credit System, the share of loans classified below Acceptable rose in every loan category in the year to June 2026, and in the three farm categories it has risen two years running. Classification moves before delinquency, which is the point of early warning.
Noncurrent farm loans at banks have climbed back from their 2023 low
Share of loans 90 days or more past due or on nonaccrual, all FDIC-insured institutions, second quarter of each year, %
At June 30, 2026, FDIC-insured institutions held $89.1 billion of farm production loans and $124.4 billion of loans secured by farmland.20,2 The 917 banks the FDIC classes as agricultural banks, where farm loans are more than a quarter of the book, held $314.2 billion of assets; 0.87% of their loans were noncurrent and 1.50% were past due 30 days or more or on nonaccrual.20 Community bank farm loans past due or on nonaccrual fell 24 basis points in the quarter to 1.20%.20
Farm production loan past dues spike every first quarter
Share of farm production loans 30 to 89 days past due, all FDIC-insured institutions, first and second quarters, %
0.67%Q1 2024
0.36%Q2 2024
0.87%Q1 2025
0.46%Q2 2025
0.76%Q1 2026
0.38%Q2 2026
Source2 · Third and fourth quarters ran 0.35% to 0.47% in 2024 and 2025.
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Quarter
30–89 days past due
Q1 2024
0.67%
Q2 2024
0.36%
Q1 2025
0.87%
Q2 2025
0.46%
Q1 2026
0.76%
Q2 2026
0.38%
The first-quarter jumps are annual payments falling due and being caught up in the spring. A rising first-quarter peak, 0.67% in 2024 to 0.87% in 2025, says more about stress than any single quarter, and a farm late in January should be judged against its own Januaries.
The Farm Credit System: credit quality slipping in every category
The Farm Credit System, the cooperatively owned lenders supervised by the Farm Credit Administration (FCA), held $459.1 billion of gross loans at June 30, 2026, up 5.2% in a year.9,21 Nonperforming assets were 1.09% of loans and other property owned, against 1.02% a year earlier; delinquencies were 0.49% of accruing loans.9,22 The FCA said portfolio quality "remained sound" while "credit risk measures continued to trend higher."22
Loans rated below Acceptable rose in every Farm Credit loan category
Share of loans classified less than Acceptable, Farm Credit System, June 30
June 2025June 2026
Agribusiness8.9%10.7%
Production and intermediate-term8.9%9.2%
Real estate mortgage5%5.3%
Rural infrastructure2.1%3.9%
Total portfolio5.9%6.8%
Source9 · June 2024: total 4.7%, production and intermediate-term 6.5%, agribusiness 6.7%.
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June 2025
June 2026
Agribusiness
8.9%
10.7%
Production and intermediate-term
8.9%
9.2%
Real estate mortgage
5%
5.3%
Rural infrastructure
2.1%
3.9%
Total portfolio
5.9%
6.8%
Production and operating loans are a fifth of the Farm Credit book
Farm Credit System loans by type, June 30, 2026
$459Bgross loans
Real estate mortgage44%
Production and intermediate-term19%
Agribusiness18%
Rural infrastructure14%
Other5%
Source9 · 'Other' is the remainder of the shares the FCA shows.
Show the numbers
Part
Value
Real estate mortgage
44%
Production and intermediate-term
19%
Agribusiness
18%
Rural infrastructure
14%
Other
5%
Why classification leads delinquency
A loan is classified when the lender judges repayment capacity weak, usually before a payment is missed. The FCA's list of risks it was watching in September 2026 started with "continuing stress on cash grain sector resulting from volatile commodity prices, high input costs, global production trends, and trade uncertainties."9 A rising classified share with flat delinquency means lenders are seeing trouble early. An early warning process is how they see it.
06 · Ratios that warn
Working capital per acre, current ratio and term debt coverage, worked through on one farm
In shortFour ratios carry most of the warning: working capital (in dollars, per acre and against gross revenue), the current ratio, debt-to-asset and term debt coverage. Each has published rule-of-thumb bands. The useful reading is the change since the last review, re-projected at today's prices and herd, because a farm can move from strong to vulnerable inside one season.
Ratio
Formula
Vulnerable
Strong
Current ratio
Current assets ÷ current liabilities
Below 1.3
Above 2.0
Working capital to gross revenues
(Current assets − current liabilities) ÷ gross revenues
Below 10%
Above 30%
Debt-to-asset
Total farm debt ÷ total farm assets
Above 60%
Below 30%
Term debt coverage
(Net farm income + depreciation + non-farm income + interest on term debt − family living and taxes) ÷ scheduled term principal and interest
Below 1.25
Above 1.75
Bands from the University of Minnesota Farm Finance Scorecard.23 They are rules of thumb; your credit policy sets its own. Working capital per acre is common in grain lending but has no standard band: University of Illinois data put the median Illinois grain farm's working capital at 67% of gross farm returns in 2024, down from 75% in 2023.24
The worked example: Voss Land & Cattle, December to October
The fictional farm from the top of the page runs 640 bred cows, 2,880 dryland acres and 960 irrigated acres. At December 31, 2025 its working capital was $612,000 and its current ratio 1.58. On the June 30 interim balance sheet, working capital was $188,400 and the current ratio 1.11, below the scorecard's vulnerable line. On its 3,840 crop acres that is about $49 of working capital per acre, against about $159 in December (our arithmetic on the example).
Re-projected at this year's herd and prices, less cash is left for term debt
Voss Land & Cattle, where gross farm income goes, 2025 actual and 2026 re-projected
Cash operating expensesHay and purchased feedFamily living and taxesLeft for term debt
2025 actual, $2,684,000$1.8M$652.4K
2026 re-projected, $2,312,000$1.6M$428.3K
Fictional example from this guide · Scheduled term payments are $498,000 in both years.
Show the numbers
Cash operating expenses
Hay and purchased feed
Family living and taxes
Left for term debt
2025 actual, $2,684,000
$1.8M
$38.4K
$181.2K
$652.4K
2026 re-projected, $2,312,000
$1.6M
$163.9K
$165.2K
$428.3K
Term debt coverage = cash left for term debt ÷ scheduled term payments: 2025 $652,400 ÷ $498,000 = 1.31x · 2026 $428,280 ÷ $498,000 = 0.86x
Term debt coverage fell from just above the vulnerable line to well below it
Voss Land & Cattle term debt coverage against the scorecard bands
2025 actual$652,400 ÷ $498,0001.31 x
2026 re-projected$428,280 ÷ $498,0000.86 x
Scorecard: vulnerable below1.25 x
Scorecard: strong above1.75 x
Fictional example from this guide · Bands from the University of Minnesota Farm Finance Scorecard, cited under the ratio table above.
Show the numbers
Measure
Coverage
2025 actual
1.31 x
2026 re-projected
0.86 x
Scorecard: vulnerable below
1.25 x
Scorecard: strong above
1.75 x
Three things drove the fall. Hay and purchased feed rose from $38,400 to $163,900 as the pasture failed. Gross farm income falls from $2,684,000 to $2,312,000 in the re-projection, with a third fewer cows and this year's prices. And the cash from the cows sold, $356,160, went into the operating account instead of onto the cattle note.
On the collateral side, the same sale moved the cattle loan from 85% of the herd's value to 121%; land equity is still strong, with real estate debt at 41% of value. Strong land equity is why the farm stays viable. Weak cash flow is why it needs a plan before March.
Re-project the year as soon as it changes. The examination manual is plain: "the primary repayment source for intermediate and long-term agricultural loans is not collateral but cash flow from ordinary operations," and projections should weigh current conditions and "the historical performance of the farming operation."1 A re-projection in October, with the actual herd, hay bills and prices, answers the question a December statement answers in April.
07 · Drought and yield
Reading the U.S. Drought Monitor for an ag loan book, with the 2026 drought in Nebraska and Kansas
In shortThe Drought Monitor is a weekly map, released on Thursdays from data through Tuesday morning, that grades drought from D0 to D4. It describes the past week and makes no forecast. Federal livestock disaster aid keys off it, so the same map that warns a lender also tells it which ranchers are due a payment. In 2026, Nebraska's drought peaked in spring and had eased a long way by October.
Category
Name
Percentile range (most indicators)
D0
Abnormally dry
20 to 30
D1
Moderate drought
10 to 20
D2
Severe drought
5 to 10
D3
Extreme drought
2 to 5
D4
Exceptional drought
0 to 2
U.S. Drought Monitor classification.25 The map is produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln with NOAA and USDA; it is "released every Thursday" using "data through the previous Tuesday morning", and "is not a forecast; it looks back in time."5
Nebraska's 2026 drought peaked in spring and had eased by October
Share of area in severe drought or worse (D2 to D4), first map of each month, 2026, %
NebraskaKansasUnited States
0%25%50%75%100%
JanMarMayJulSep
Source26 · Nebraska's D2-or-worse peak was 86% on March 31; its extreme-or-worse (D3+) peak was 66% on May 12; on October 6, 6.4% of Nebraska and none of Kansas was in D3 or worse. On the October 27 map, 12.2% of Nebraska was in D2 or worse.
Show the numbers
Nebraska
Kansas
United States
Jan
10.9%
0%
13.2%
Feb
12.4%
0%
16.4%
Mar
39.5%
2.7%
20.6%
Apr
81.6%
5.3%
30.4%
May
78.8%
40.2%
36.3%
Jun
75.2%
25%
31.2%
Jul
60.8%
7%
25.1%
Aug
53.3%
5.4%
23.9%
Sep
35.2%
29.1%
27.1%
Oct
23%
10.4%
26.3%
From a county map to a farm's own acres
The map is drawn at a scale of counties and regions, and a loan book is a list of farms. Placing each farm on it takes the farm's legal descriptions, pasture leases and acreage reports, and a decision about which acres matter: drought on rented pasture hits a cow-calf operation in weeks, while drought on irrigated corn may barely touch yield. Most lenders also count duration, because a farm in D2 for one week is in a different position from one in D3 for eleven.
Yield is the second half. USDA's October 9, 2026 crop report put the national corn yield at 181.2 bushels an acre, up 2.7 from September but below 2025's 186.5, and soybeans at 53.1.12 National averages say little about a dryland farm in a D3 county; the county's own outlook against its five-year average, and the farm's insurance guarantee, say much more.
The drought map also triggers disaster pay
The longer and deeper the drought, the more monthly payments a rancher can claim
Livestock Forage Disaster Program: monthly payments by Drought Monitor trigger in the county during the normal grazing period
D2 for at least 8 consecutive weeks1
D3 at any time3
D3 for at least 4 weeks, or D4 at any time4
D4 for at least 4 weeksthe most for the same livestock in a year5
Each monthly payment is 60% of the lesser of two monthly feed costs. A producer who sold or disposed of livestock because of a qualifying drought in either of the two prior production years gets 80% of that rate.27
For an early warning, that cuts both ways. A rancher in eleven weeks of D3 may have several months of feed cost coming from USDA, a mitigant worth checking before rating the farm down; and the same payment, if it arrives in the operating account and is spent, is one more deposit to watch.
08 · Prices and breakevens
Crop and cattle prices against each farm's breakeven: what WASDE and the 2025 marketing year say
USDA forecasts of October 9, 2026
In shortA price only warns when it is set against what the farm needs. USDA's October forecasts in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) put 2026/27 prices above the depressed 2025 averages, but costs rose too. The lender's question is how many weeks each farm's main commodity has sat under that farm's own breakeven, from its last cash flow.
USDA expects 2026 crop prices above 2025's lows
Change in the 2026/27 season-average farm price forecast against the final 2025 marketing-year average
Wheat: $5.06 to $6.3024.5%
Soybeans: $10.50 to $12.0014.3%
Corn: $4.16 to $4.7013%
Our reading of the sources12,11 · Our arithmetic from USDA's October 9, 2026 WASDE forecasts and the final 2025 averages farmdoc daily reports.
Show the numbers
Crop
Change
Wheat: $5.06 to $6.30
24.5%
Soybeans: $10.50 to $12.00
14.3%
Corn: $4.16 to $4.70
13%
Higher forecast prices are good news for the crop that is still in the bin or not yet sold. For grain that was sold early at last winter's prices, or for a farm whose costs rose faster, they change little. That is why the useful price signal is farm by farm: corn under a particular farm's breakeven of, say, $4.38 for four straight weeks is a fact about that farm; the national average price is background.
Government payments per acre, and when they arrive
The two big federal payments were worth about the same per acre
Farmer Bridge Assistance per planted acre (paid early 2026) and average 2025 ARC/PLC per base acre (paid October 2026), $
Bridge Assistance, per planted acre2025 ARC/PLC, per base acre
Corn$44.36$51
Wheat$39.35$47
Soybeans$30.88$29
Source10,11 · ARC/PLC averages before the 5.7% sequestration cut. Planted acres and base acres differ, so a farm's payment depends on both.
Show the numbers
Bridge Assistance, per planted acre
2025 ARC/PLC, per base acre
Corn
$44.36
$51
Wheat
$39.35
$47
Soybeans
$30.88
$29
For a corn farm with 1,000 acres planted and 1,000 base acres, that is roughly $44,000 in late winter and $48,000 after sequestration in October (our arithmetic). Payments of that size can carry a line through a bad year, and they can also make a weak operation look sound for one more renewal. An early warning should mark which deposits are program payments and whether the farm's cash flow needs them to balance.
09 · Crop insurance and payment timing
Crop insurance assignments, unpaid premiums and claim timing: the mitigants that decide a bad year
In shortCrop insurance is the main reason a drought does not become a loan loss, but only if the policy is in force and the payment reaches the lender. Three facts drive early warning: an assignment of indemnity must be on the insurer's form, an unpaid premium ends coverage for the next year, and claims pay within 30 days of agreement on the loss.
Rule (Common Crop Insurance Policy)
What it says
What a lender watches
Assignment of indemnity (§29)
Assign only to creditors, on the insurer's form. Without it, the insurer "will not make any payment to a lienholder", even if a lien is recorded elsewhere. With it, one payment is issued jointly to the assignees and the insured.4
Every claim filed by a borrower with no assignment on file
Notice of damage (§14)
Within 72 hours of discovering damage, and no later than 15 days after the insurance period ends; phone notice confirmed in writing within 15 days.4
Losses in drought counties with no claim yet
Loss payment (§14)
"We will pay your loss within 30 days after" agreement, arbitration or a final judgment.4
Claims agreed but not yet paid, and where the check went
Premium and termination (§2)
Premium and fee must be paid by the termination date to remain eligible; unpaid amounts make the insured ineligible from the termination date.4
Premium billed and not paid from the farm's account
Cash a farm lender waits for in 2026 arrives in a few large, dated payments
The mitigant check is short: is the crop insured, at what coverage, is the premium paid, is a claim filed, and is the indemnity assigned to the lender? A dryland wheat farm in fresh D3 with Revenue Protection at 80% assigned to the bank, paying on time with its line at its usual level, is an exposure to watch; nobody needs to call it this week. A neighbor with the same drought and the premium unpaid is the reverse: if the policy lapses, next year's crop has no floor.
Ad hoc aid runs on Washington's calendar. Disaster and bridge programs arrive on Congress's and USDA's timetable, by formula, and are paid to the producer. Unless the lender has arranged otherwise, they land in the operating account. The 2026 programs were large, and the FCA noted farmland values held up partly on "continued government support".22
10 · When a farm slips
After the warning: ratings, FSA servicing, Farm Credit borrower rights and Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy
Status as of October 2026
In shortAn early warning leads to a rating decision and a plan, and the rules that apply next depend on who made the loan. Banks rate under the supervisory definitions. FSA guaranteed lenders have to meet a defaulted borrower within weeks and decide within 90 days. FSA direct borrowers and Farm Credit borrowers have statutory rights to be offered servicing or restructuring. Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings rose in 2024 and 2025 and kept rising through the 12 months to September 2026.
The rating comes first
Special mention
"A Special Mention asset has potential weaknesses that deserve management's close attention. If left uncorrected, these potential weaknesses may result in deterioration of the repayment prospects". The category is "not to be used as a means of avoiding a clear decision to adversely classify an asset or pass it".1
Substandard
"Inadequately protected by the current sound worth and paying capacity of the obligor or of the collateral pledged", with "a well-defined weakness or weaknesses". For farm loans, adverse classification "is not automatic" when the primary repayment source is impaired; history, financial strength and collateral are weighed.1
The examination manual also defines the two kinds of carryover loan: production or feeder livestock loans that could not be repaid at maturity and are rescheduled, and existing term debt rescheduled for lack of cash flow.1
The interagency credit risk review guidance expects loan review to find "loans with actual and potential credit weaknesses" and to look "more frequently" than annually when indicators suggest deterioration.28 The FDIC's 2020 advisory, still posted as an active letter, asks lenders to "work constructively with agricultural borrowers experiencing financial difficulties" and to "consider and monitor key cyclical and economic factors".29
The clock once payments stop
FSA and Farm Credit rules put dates on what happens after a farm defaults
15 days after defaultGuaranteed lender meets the borrower
For a missed payment, 45 days after the due date; both bring a balance sheet and cash flow (standard eligible and certified lenders).
90 days past dueFSA direct borrower notified
Notice of loan servicing programs (FSA-2510) by certified mail; 60 days to apply.
90 days after defaultGuaranteed lender decides
Restructure or liquidate, unless FSA approves an extension.
45 days before foreclosureFarm Credit notice
Right to seek restructuring, with the lender's distressed-loan policy; restructure if it costs no more than foreclosure.
Two FSA rules changed recently. The Distressed Borrower Set-Aside, effective September 25, 2024, lets a financially distressed direct borrower defer one annual installment at 0.125% interest, due at maturity.33
"Driving Efficiency in Farm Loan Delivery", effective October 1, 2026, makes Application Fast Track permanent for direct loans, and keeps certified mail for direct borrowers 90 days or more past due. For guaranteed loans it raises the line above which a performing term loan needs a written annual analysis from $100,000 to $500,000 of term balances; every line of credit and every loan in default still needs one.
Lenders outside the preferred program now send FSA only the analyses of lines of credit and loans not performing; the term loan analyses stay in their own files.34 A performing term loan under $500,000 no longer needs that yearly analysis at all, which puts more weight on a lender's own monitoring.
Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy
Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies rose two years running after a 2023 low
Chapter 12 cases filed, U.S. bankruptcy courts, calendar years
0200400600315
201420162018202020222024
Source35,36,37 · 2010: 723. The 12 months ending June 30, 2026: 336 (282 a year earlier); ending September 30, 2026: 361 (293 a year earlier).
Show the numbers
Chapter 12 filings
2014
361
2015
407
2016
461
2017
501
2018
498
2019
599
2020
560
2021
276
2022
169
2023
139
2024
216
2025
315
Chapter 12 is the part of the Bankruptcy Code written for family farmers and fishermen: the farm keeps operating while it repays creditors under a plan the court confirms. Its debt limit was raised to $12,562,250 for cases filed from April 1, 2025.38
The American Farm Bureau counted 315 filings in 2025, 46% more than in 2024, with the Midwest up 70% and the Southeast up 69%; Nebraska had 17 and Kansas 11.39,35 In the 12 months to September 30, 2026, courts recorded 361 Chapter 12 cases, against 293 a year earlier.37 The numbers are small, and they are the last step. By the time a borrower files, every early warning has already been missed or acted on.
11 · What goes wrong
The farm problems lenders discover at renewal, and the earlier signal behind each one
In shortMost farm credit surprises were visible somewhere months earlier: in the operating account, in an insurance notice, in an interim statement that arrived late. They are missed because each signal sits in a different system and the credit file is opened once a year. False alarms do damage too, because officers stop reading a list that flags every farm in a drought county.
#
The miss
Why it happens
The signal that catches it
Cash leaving the loan
1
Cattle or grain sold, proceeds spent
Sale-barn and elevator checks land in the operating account
Match sale deposits to the notes the livestock or grain secures1
2
Insurance indemnity paid to the farmer alone
No assignment of indemnity was filed on the insurer's form
Every claim checked against the assignment on file4
3
One-time payments treated as income
Bridge and disaster payments sit in the same deposit history
Program payments tagged; the cash flow re-run without them
Stress found at renewal
4
Working capital spent through the summer
Interim statements late or never requested
Line use against the farm's own seasonal norm; overdue interims flagged
5
Carryover rolled into the new line
Renewal paperwork rewards a quick yes in planting season
Unpaid production debt measured at year end, before renewal1
6
Premium unpaid, policy lapses
The premium bill goes to the farmer, not the lender
The misses to fix first are common and costly: spent proceeds and spent working capital
How much it costs when it does →
Check on every claim
Fix first
Review yearly
Automate the check
Proceeds spentNo assignmentWorking capital spentPremium lapseSeasonal misreadDrought-only flags
How often it happens in a stressed year →
Illustrative · replace with your own numbers · Positions are our judgment from the sources in this section; no public data counts these misses.
Show the numbers
Item
How often it happens in a stressed year (0–1)
How much it costs when it does (0–1)
Proceeds spent
0.75
0.80
No assignment
0.15
0.74
Working capital spent
0.78
0.54
Premium lapse
0.12
0.34
Seasonal misread
0.66
0.22
Drought-only flags
0.78
0.12
17%
of Chicago Fed district farm borrowers carried more carryover debt into 2026 than into 2025, lenders estimated in the first quarter.15
Chicago Fed AgLetter, May 2026
>10%
of Tenth District farm loans needed restructuring for liquidity in early 2025, up from about 5% a year earlier.17
Kansas City Fed, May 15, 2025
0
public datasets we found that measure how often lenders miss these signals. Your own loss and exam reviews are the baseline.
As of October 2026
12 · Fair lending, models and AI
Scoring farm borrowers with software: the 2026 model guidance, the FCA's view and fair lending
Status as of October 2026
In shortAn early warning score that weighs signals statistically can be a model under the April 2026 guidance; a fixed rule ("flag at two overdrafts") generally is not. Generative AI that drafts a review falls outside that guidance and under the lender's own risk management. Farm Credit institutions answer to the FCA, which points to its examination manual. Fair lending law applies to farm credit, and any flag that changes a borrower's terms must be explainable.
On April 17, 2026, the Federal Reserve, OCC and FDIC replaced their 2011 model risk guidance with SR 26-2, OCC Bulletin 2026-13 and FDIC FIL-15-2026. The guidance excludes simple arithmetic and deterministic rule-based processes from the definition of a model, puts generative AI and AI that acts on its own outside its scope, and is expected to be most relevant above $30 billion of assets.40
Most ag lenders are smaller, and most early warning work is rules and arithmetic: weeks in D3, line use against a norm, a re-projected coverage ratio. A weighted score with statistically fitted weights is different; treat it as a model and validate it.
The FCA's page on artificial intelligence, updated April 30, 2026, tells Farm Credit institutions that "Using AI does not absolve any institution from the responsibility of complying with legal requirements", and directs them to its examination manual sections on information technology, model risk management and third-party risk management before adopting AI.41
Most of an early warning process is rules and arithmetic; the score and the drafting need their own controls
Which framework is likely to govern each part, for a bank or Farm Credit lender
NoYes
Model guidanceThird-party riskFair lendingYour own policyPlacing acres on the drought mapNoYesNoYesLine use against the farm's normNoYesNoYesRe-projecting cash flowNoYesNoYesStatistically weighted scoreYesYesYesYesDrafting the review with AINoYesNoYesChanging a rating or termsNoNoYesYes
Our reading of the sources40,41,42 · Our reading. A fixed-weight score set by policy may fall outside the model definition; your model risk team and counsel decide.
Show the numbers
Model guidance
Third-party risk
Fair lending
Your own policy
Placing acres on the drought map
No
Yes
No
Yes
Line use against the farm's norm
No
Yes
No
Yes
Re-projecting cash flow
No
Yes
No
Yes
Statistically weighted score
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Drafting the review with AI
No
Yes
No
Yes
Changing a rating or terms
No
No
Yes
Yes
Fair lending still applies to farm credit
The Equal Credit Opportunity Act and Regulation B cover business and farm credit. If a warning leads to a decline, a reduced line or worse terms, the notice rules apply; for larger businesses the lender must give reasons on request.42
The CFPB's 2026 Regulation B rule says the Act does not authorize disparate-impact liability, and a lawsuit challenging it is pending; disparate treatment is still prohibited.43 The rewritten small business data rule (section 1071) excludes agricultural lending.44 The practical test: every flag that changes a borrower's treatment should rest on reasons a person can state and check.
What software can and cannot do here
It can place every farm on every week's map, compare every account with its own history, read interim statements and notices as they arrive, and draft a review with each figure's source.
It cannot see the herd. The visit, the count and the conversation at the kitchen table stay with the loan officer.
The Drought Monitor looks back, prices move, and interim statements lag. A score is only as current as its slowest input.
Rating changes, watch-list decisions and anything said to a borrower stay with named people.
13 · How teams watch an ag book today
How an ag bank watches its farms between renewals by hand, and why one watch-list review takes most of two days
In shortLoan officers know their farms and hear the news at the coffee shop, but each covers a hundred or more borrowers. A portfolio analyst watches concentrations, the ag lending manager decides ratings, and a committee confirms the watch list. Between annual renewals most of the watching is informal. A watch-list review done by hand takes most of two working days.
The five people who watch an ag book between renewals
LO
Ag loan officer
Owns 100 or more farm relationships, renews lines, visits farms, makes the call when something changes.
Cares about: which family to visit first.
LM
Ag lending manager
Runs the officers, approves rating changes within authority, brings files to the watch-list committee.
Cares about: finding trouble months before renewal.
RA
Portfolio risk analyst
Tracks exposure by commodity and region, runs price and drought stress tests, tunes the signals.
Cares about: how much of the book sits in one drought or one commodity.
SA
Special assets officer
Takes over loans rated substandard and worse; works restructurings and liquidations.
Cares about: enough notice to work a file before it fails.
CC
Chief credit officer
Chairs the watch-list committee, answers to examiners and the board.
Cares about: ratings that match each borrower's condition when the examiner arrives.
Four looks before a farm reaches the watch list
Between renewals, a farm reaches the watch list only after four people have looked
1Something is noticed
An officer hears of a herd sale, sees an overdraft, or the drought spreads.
Loan officerDays to months
2Accounts pulled
Line, deposit and payment history from the core system.
Officer or analystHours
3Financials updated
Interim balance sheet requested, insurance and program notices read.
Officer and credit analystWeeks, waiting on the borrower
4Year re-projected
Cash flow at today's prices and herd; ratios and collateral.
Credit analystHours
5Review written
Summary, rating proposal, action plan.
Officer or analystHours
6Decided
Rating approved, watch list, committee.
Ag lending manager and committeeMonthly
Illustrative · replace with your own numbers · Typical steps; times are illustrative.
Show the numbers
Step
What happens
Who
Time
Something is noticed
An officer hears of a herd sale, sees an overdraft, or the drought spreads.
Loan officer
Days to months
Accounts pulled
Line, deposit and payment history from the core system.
Officer or analyst
Hours
Financials updated
Interim balance sheet requested, insurance and program notices read.
Officer and credit analyst
Weeks, waiting on the borrower
Year re-projected
Cash flow at today's prices and herd; ratios and collateral.
Credit analyst
Hours
Review written
Summary, rating proposal, action plan.
Officer or analyst
Hours
Decided
Rating approved, watch list, committee.
Ag lending manager and committee
Monthly
Hours in one hand-built farm watch-list review
Reading statements, re-projecting and writing take most of a hand-built review
Hours for one watch-list review on a farm borrower, done by hand
Account historyDrought map placementFinancials and noticesCash flow re-projectionWriting and deciding
By hand, about 17 hours3 h2 h3 h4 h5 h
Illustrative · replace with your own numbers · An estimate, from the solution's own planning figures; no public source measures it. Time five of your own.
Show the numbers
Account history
Drought map placement
Financials and notices
Cash flow re-projection
Writing and deciding
By hand, about 17 hours
3 h
2 h
3 h
4 h
5 h
Multiply by the farms that deserve a look in a stressed year. If 5% of a 1,200-farm book needs a review between renewals, 60 reviews at 17 hours each is about 1,020 hours, about half of one full-time analyst's year (our arithmetic on illustrative figures). Most teams cannot spare it, so they review the farms they already worry about and find the rest at renewal.
Officer judgment, loan review or monitoring tools for an ag book
In house
Officers, reports and judgment
Past-due and overdraft reports from the core system, the officer's knowledge of the county, spreadsheets for concentrations. Cheap, and blind between renewals for farms that pay on time while their cushion drains.
Outsourced
Loan review and consultants
Periodic file reviews and stress tests by an outside firm. Useful as a check; the timing is a sample, months apart.
Software
Monitoring and mapping tools
Portfolio dashboards, field-level crop monitoring, enterprise mapping and alerting. They differ most on whether they combine all five signal families per farm, compare each farm with its own pattern, and explain each flag with its sources.
Part B · See it working
Botminds Agricultural Credit Early Warning at a fictional Nebraska bank with 1,184 farm borrowers
Part A described the work without naming a product. This part shows how Botminds does it, at a fictional Nebraska bank with 1,184 farm borrowers in 32 counties. Every farm, person, figure, drought map, yield and price on these screens is sample data; real drought and price data for 2026 are in Part A.
14 · One farm, start to finish
Voss Land & Cattle: drought spreads, seven signals line up, and the farm moves to special mention 140 days before renewal
In shortThis is the example from the top of the page, inside the product. Six agents re-score the whole book every Thursday after the drought map comes out. On Monday, Ruth Engel, the ag lending manager at Willowmere State Bank, sees the book on the map, checks why most farms in a new drought cleared, opens the farm at the top of the alerts, asks for a review, and approves a move to special mention 140 days before renewal.
1
The whole ag book on this week's map
Ruth opens the book map: every farm a dot in its county, colored by its early warning score, over the sample drought map of the week of October 8. Perkins County, where Voss Land & Cattle sits near Grant, shows D3 extreme drought for 11 weeks; the Voss dot reads 81.
Under the map sit the three counts that matter this week: 27 alerts, 9 of them high and 15 waiting for Ruth; 38 farms on the watch list for $96.4 million; $286 million of the book in counties at D2 or worse, up $20 million on the week.
The ag book on this week's drought map. Drought layer with its 14-week slider, every farm a dot by score, and this week's counts underneath. Map and counts are sample data.
2
Drought spread, twelve farms turned amber, nine cleared
Ruth replays Thursday's scan. On the sample map, extreme drought spreads into Rawlins, Decatur and Norton counties in Kansas, and drought alone pushes 12 farms there into watch range. The agents then check each against crop insurance, prices against the farm's breakeven, payments and line use.
Nine settle back. Three stay: Sutter Creek Farms (crop insurance premium of $18,400 unpaid, deposits down 44%), Rasmussen Land Co. (an $88,000 wheat claim with no assignment to the bank) and Wagenfeld Farms (two overdrafts in September, line 79% drawn).
This week's spread, checked. 12 farms flagged by drought alone, 4 checks per farm, 3 that need a call, each with the reason that kept it on the list.
3
Seven signals, two mitigants, each with its source
At the top of the alerts is Voss Land & Cattle: score 81, up 9 this week and up from 34 in July. The farm is rated 4, Acceptable, since its March 1 renewal, with $5,124,000 outstanding on four loans.
The score explains itself: D3 drought for 11 weeks on all 4,100 pasture acres (+20); 212 bred cows sold on October 1 for $356,160 with the $868,000 cattle note unchanged (+18); the line at 96% against a five-year October norm of 55% (+15); working capital down 69% since December (+13); deposits down 41% (+9). Each line names what it rests on: "Drought Monitor · Oct 8", "Sale settlement · Oct 1", "Balance sheet · Jun 30".
Why the farm was flagged. Score, exposure, rating and days to renewal, then every signal with its points and the document or data behind it, and the score's 14-week trend.
4
"Build the watch-list review": the year re-projected in 47 seconds
Ruth presses one button. The drought and weather watcher maps 7 parcels to the week's map. The market price watcher prices 418 calves at feeder prices and the corn against the farm's $4.38 breakeven. The account behavior watcher reads 14 months of accounts. The farm financials reader reads the June 30 balance sheet and the wheat claim, and re-projects 2026.
Term debt coverage comes out at 0.86x against 1.31x in 2025, on $498,000 of scheduled term payments. The review drafter proposes rating 6, special mention, with six actions and talking points for Cody Harms, the loan officer.
The review, gathered. Each agent's step and what it found, with two marked amber where the finding raises the risk. Finished in 47 seconds on the sample data.
5
Approved: rating 6 and the watch list, 140 days before renewal
The drafted review sets out the summary, repayment capacity for 2025 and re-projected 2026, collateral, what weighs against it, and a recommendation, every figure linked to its source. It also says what it did not check: the land value is from the 2026 appraisal.
Ruth approves rating 6 and the watch-list addition and signs. The watch list goes from 38 farms to 39, $101.5 million. The action plan has owners and dates: visit and count the herd by October 23, an updated cash flow with a destock plan by November 15, future cattle proceeds applied to the cattle note under the security agreement, the $214,000 indemnity paid jointly, weekly re-scoring, and back to committee on January 19.
The watch-list review, approved. Repayment capacity and collateral re-done, the decision recorded with the approver's name and time, and the action plan with owners and dates.
The solution's design target is to find stressed farms months before renewal: for Voss, 140 days. It is a target, to be measured on your own book.
15 · Every screen
The scan log, farms cleared by insurance, a corn price shock, the officers' call list and the watch list
In shortOne farm is the story. These screens show the rest of the week: the scan log, a farm in fresh drought that cleared, the yield and price layers, the ranked alerts, the sale settlement behind a signal, the signature, the book against its concentration limits and a corn price shock, the officers' call list, the watch list, another farm flagged for an unpaid premium, and the settings that hold the bank's credit policy.
Thursday's scan. Six agents, 1,184 borrowers and 4,318 parcels between 10:00 am and 10:41 am, with what each agent found, including two insurance claims filed with no assignment of indemnity.
A farm in fresh drought that cleared. Vellhaus Wheat Farms scored 54 on drought alone and 24 with Revenue Protection at 80% assigned to the bank, every payment on time and the line at its norm. No alert; it is re-scored every week.
The sale behind a signal. The settlement for 212 bred cows, $356,160, deposited to checking with no lien holder named and no payment to the cattle note, beside the security agreement clause on proceeds.
The yield outlook layer. Each county's outlook against its five-year average (sample data), and a county's most exposed farms with crop mix, insurance, the last 12 payments and line use.
The price moves layer. Each county colored by the four-week move in its main commodity. The prices are the product's sample data; real 2026 prices are in section 08.
Ranked alerts. Every borrower whose score moved enough to need a look, with exposure, score and change, the reasons on the row, the officer and days to renewal.
Approve and sign. What the decision does, the exposure, the signer and the meaning of the signature, recorded together.
A corn price shock. December corn down another 10% re-projects each farm's own cash flow: 110 farms below 1.0x term debt coverage, 14 more than today. No rating changes.
Exposure by commodity and drought. Each enterprise against its concentration limit and the drought map: cow-calf has $97 million, 49%, in D2 or worse; dryland wheat and row crops $88 million, 62%.
The officers' call list. Every accepted alert becomes a call with talking points drafted from the evidence: count the herd at Voss, bring an assignment of indemnity to Ostwald Grain Partners, agree a date for Hollenbeck's late payment.
The watch list. After the approval: 39 farms, $101.5 million, by rating, with the committee pack for October 20.
An unpaid premium. Sutter Creek Farms: new D3 drought (+25), the crop insurance premium billed in August unpaid, so the policy is at risk (+23), deposits down 44% (+19).
Your signals and approvers. Thresholds, alert levels, who approves ratings 5 and 6 and who approves 7 and worse, the reason required to dismiss a high alert, and the committee date. Changes are versioned.
Select any screen to open it larger. The bank, farms, people, drought map, yields and prices are fictional sample data.
16 · Agents, and who decides
Who may move a farm's rating or add it to the watch list, and what no agent touches
In shortEach agent has one job and limits it does not cross. None of them changes a risk rating, adds a farm to the watch list, contacts a borrower or blocks an account. The ag lending manager approves ratings 5 and 6 and watch-list additions; ratings 7 and worse go to the chief credit officer; the committee confirms the list every month.
Three watchers, a financials reader, a scorer and a review drafter
Drought and weather watcher
Maps every borrower's acres and pastures, from mortgage legal descriptions, pasture leases and acreage reports, to the weekly Drought Monitor map and rainfall, and records the weeks at D2 or worse for pasture, dryland and irrigated acres.
Never guesses a location; unmapped acres go to the officer. Every value cites its map date.
Market price watcher
Prices each operation's commodities against its own breakeven from the last cash flow, after every close, and counts the weeks it has been below.
Never forecasts a price; uses posted settlements and local cash bids only.
Account behavior watcher
Watches line use, deposits, overdrafts, past dues and unusual payments against the farm's own seasonal pattern; matches sale-barn and packer deposits to cattle notes and spots hay and feed payments.
Never contacts a borrower, and never blocks or changes an account.
Farm financials reader
Reads interim balance sheets, Schedule F, crop insurance notices of loss and assignments, and FSA program payments; recomputes working capital, current ratio and term debt coverage, and re-projects the year.
Never changes a reported figure. Every number cites its page; a claim with no assignment is flagged.
Early warning scorer
Applies the weights in Settings to each borrower's signals and mitigants, raises an alert when the score crosses a level or rises 8 points in a week, and ranks the alerts.
Never changes a risk rating. Every alert shows its reasons.
Watch-list review drafter
Drafts the watch-list review (what changed, repayment capacity, collateral, what weighs against it, a proposed rating and an action plan with owners and dates) and the officer's talking points.
Never adds a borrower to the watch list or sends anything to a borrower. It drafts; the manager decides.
Manager approves ratings 5 and 6; committee, 7 and worse
Approves or dismissesAg lending managerApproves rating changes to 5 or 6 and watch-list additions, or dismisses a high alert with a written reason kept on the audit trail.
ConfirmsChief credit officer and committeeApproves ratings 7 and worse and moves them to special assets; the committee confirms the list and every action plan on the third Tuesday.
Makes the callAg loan officerVisits the farm, counts the herd, agrees the plan with the family and logs the outcome.
Signatures record the name, the role, the decision and its meaning. Agent steps and human decisions are kept apart on the activity record; every scan, flag, dismissal and approval is on the audit trail, and changes to signals, thresholds and weights are versioned.
The fictional Nebraska ag bank's five people on screen
Fictional, from the sample data
RE
Ruth Engel · ag lending manager
Runs 9 ag officers in 7 branches; 1,184 farm borrowers, $1.06 billion outstanding.
"By the time a file comes up for renewal, the drought has already happened."
CH
Cody Harms · ag loan officer, Grant branch
118 borrowers across Perkins, Keith and Dundy counties.
"I know these families. I need to know which one to visit first."
DF
Douglas Fenn · chief credit officer
Chairs the monthly watch-list committee; answers to examiners.
"Tell me which farms are slipping before the examiner does."
MT
Megan Tran · portfolio risk analyst
Tunes the signals and the stress tests; reports concentration.
"Every flag has to say why, or nobody acts on it."
RA
Rita Albrecht · special assets officer
Takes over files rated substandard and worse.
"Six months' notice gives me room to work out a plan with the family."
17 · What goes in and out
What the weekly scan reads, from the Drought Monitor to deposit history, and the ranked alerts and drafted reviews it leaves
In shortIt reads what the bank already holds and what the public sources already publish, writes nothing into the loan system on its own, and leaves behind ranked alerts with reasons, exposure by commodity and drought, drafted watch-list reviews and a call list for officers. The bank's systems of record stay where they are.
Public and market data
The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor map and rainfall
Futures settlements and local cash bids
County yield outlooks
From the bank and the borrower
Line balances, deposits, overdrafts and payments from the core system
Interim balance sheets, tax returns and cash flows
Crop insurance notices, assignments and FSA payment letters
Mortgage legal descriptions and security agreements
Your rating definitions, thresholds and approvers
Agents map, price, watch, read and scoreEvery farm, every Thursday, against its own pattern and your credit policy
A named person approves every rating change
Every flag shows its evidence
Outputs
A ranked alert feed with reasons, officer and days to renewal
Exposure by commodity and drought category against concentration limits
Price and drought stress tests, farm by farm
Drafted watch-list reviews with sources
A call list with talking points for officers
The committee pack
What changes for the team
Months of notice before renewal
Drought-only alarms checked before they reach anyone
Reviews to edit and decide, already drafted
Core, loan, drought and market feeds a weekly farm scan reads
For each, check whether it has an API, a file feed or only screens, and who owns it.
Weekly scans that write nothing back without a person
Your rating scale
Kept as it is. The review proposes a rating on your scale and your definitions; the approver decides.
Your core and loan systems
Stay the systems of record. The solution reads them and writes nothing back without a person's decision.
Your credit policy
Becomes settings: drought trigger and duration, line use above the seasonal norm, deposit decline, overdrafts, cattle sold, overdue interims, alert levels, approvers, committee date.
Your officers
Get a call list with reasons and talking points, and keep the relationship. Nothing goes to a borrower from the solution.
Your committee
Gets every watch-list farm with its rating, next review and action plan marked on track or behind.
Your examiners
See every flag's evidence, every dismissal's reason and every approval's signer on the audit trail.
Drought checks, each farm's own history, and people deciding
1
A drought flag must pass four checks
Insurance, prices, payments and line use are checked before a farm in a new drought stays flagged.
2
Each farm against its own pattern
Line use and deposits are compared with the farm's own last five years, month by month.
3
Agents draft; people decide
Ratings, the watch list and every word to a borrower stay with named people.
Part C · Are you ready to automate?
The case for weekly early warning on your ag book, built from your own numbers
You lend to farms, manage the people who do, or answer for the book to a board and an examiner. This part is written for you: what a late warning costs, what weekly scoring could return, whether your team is ready, and what to ask any vendor of ag portfolio monitoring, including us.
18 · What a late warning costs
What finding a stressed farm at renewal costs you, in options lost and hours spent
In shortNo study publishes how much earlier warning saves an ag lender, so the numbers that matter are yours. Published figures frame them: how many farm loans are in trouble, how fast classified loans are growing, and what an officer's hour costs. The largest cost is the one no report shows: the options that were open in October and closed by March.
3.7%
of Chicago Fed district farm loans had major or severe repayment problems in the second quarter of 2026, up from 2.9% a year earlier; the reading was 5.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025.16,14
Chicago Fed AgLetter, August and February 2026
6.8%
of Farm Credit System loans were classified less than Acceptable at June 30, 2026, against 4.7% two years earlier.9
Farm Credit Administration, September 10, 2026
$53/hr
a loan officer's median 2025 pay, $36.87 an hour, loaded for benefits at the 70.0% wage share of employer costs (our arithmetic).45,46
O*NET / BLS wages; BLS compensation costs, June 2026
Most of a watch-list review's hours go to gathering and re-projecting
Hours for one watch-list review on a farm borrower
By hand (estimate)With the solution (estimate)
Pulling line, deposit and payment history3 h0.25 h
Placing the acres on the drought map2 h0.25 h
Reading interim financials and insurance notices3 h0.5 h
Re-projecting the year's cash flow4 h0.5 h
Writing the review and action plan4 h1 h
Decision1 h0.5 h
Illustrative · replace with your own numbers · The solution's own estimates, about 17 hours against 3. Neither is a measurement; time five of your own reviews.
Show the numbers
By hand (estimate)
With the solution (estimate)
Pulling line, deposit and payment history
3 h
0.25 h
Placing the acres on the drought map
2 h
0.25 h
Reading interim financials and insurance notices
3 h
0.5 h
Re-projecting the year's cash flow
4 h
0.5 h
Writing the review and action plan
4 h
1 h
Decision
1 h
0.5 h
What nobody publishes. There is no public figure for how many months before default an ag stress signal appears, how often lenders miss a sale of collateral, how many watch-list reviews a team writes, or how many alerts are false alarms. Vendor figures for these come without a dataset. Measure your own.
Your own lead time on last year's farm downgrades
Cost
Where it hides
How to find your number in a week
Late discovery
Farms rated down at renewal or later
For last year's downgrades, the date the first signal appeared in your own accounts against the date of the downgrade
Spent collateral proceeds
Sale-barn and elevator deposits not applied to the note
Match last year's livestock and grain deposits to the notes they secured
Unassigned insurance
Claims paid to the borrower alone
List claims on loans you hold and check each for an assignment on file
Review hours
Officers and analysts gathering statements and history
Time five watch-list reviews from start to signature
Carryover
Operating debt rolled into new lines
Unpaid production debt at year end, by officer, for three years
Exam findings
Ratings that lag the borrower's condition
Your last two exam reports and loan review findings on ag ratings
Closed options and the family visited too late
The options that closedIn October a farm can sell calves early, apply proceeds, cut a cash rent. By March it needs money to plant.
The family you visit too lateA relationship lasts longer when the hard conversation comes early, while there is still a plan to agree on.
The examiner's rating of your processRatings that lag condition become findings, and findings bring work.
The officer who leavesWhat one officer knows about a hundred farms walks out the door.
The concentration you did not seeA third of the book in one drought, priced against one commodity, found at quarter end.
19 · Your return
The return on weekly scoring: review hours saved and stressed farms found before renewal
In shortPut in your own numbers. The calculator starts from a published loan officer wage and asks you for the rest: how many farms you lend to, how many need a review in a year, the hours each review takes, how many stressed farms you would find earlier, and what an earlier find saves. Every default marked illustrative is an assumption to replace.
Review hours saved and months gained before renewal
Review hours
Reviews drafted, then decided
Account history, drought placement, statements and the re-projection arrive gathered; the officer edits and the manager decides.
reviews × hours saved × loaded hourly cost
Earlier action
Months before renewal
A farm found in October can still apply proceeds, sell early or restructure on its own terms.
farms found earlier × loss avoided per farm
Coverage
Every farm, every week
The whole book is re-scored on Thursday, including farms that pay on time while their cushion drains.
farms scored each week ÷ farms in the book
Fewer false alarms
Drought checked before it alarms
Insurance, payments and line use clear most farms in a new drought before anyone is called.
alerts cleared by mitigants ÷ farms flagged by drought alone
Proceeds and insurance
Collateral cash caught
Sale deposits matched to notes; claims checked for assignments the week they are filed.
unapplied proceeds and unassigned claims found, $ a year
Exams
Evidence on file
Every flag, dismissal and approval with its reason and signer, ready for loan review and examiners.
hours spent assembling support for reviews
Weekly scoring on your own farm borrower count
Only the hourly cost is built from published figures: the median loan officer wage, $36.87 an hour in 2025, divided by the 70.0% wage share of employer costs.45,46 Every input marked illustrative is an assumption.
Your bookHours per reviewEarlier actionYour cost
Illustrative yearly value
Reviews a year0
Review hours released, valued$0
Losses avoided by earlier action$0
After your yearly cost$0
Farms found earlier to cover your cost0
Formulas, per year: Reviews = farms × share ÷ 100 Hours released = reviews × (hours today − hours with the solution) × hourly cost Losses avoided = farms found earlier × loss avoided per farm After your cost = hours released + losses avoided − yearly cost Farms to cover your cost = (yearly cost − hours released) ÷ loss avoided per farm, never below zero
The review hours are the solution's own estimates; the loss avoided per farm is the hardest number here. Estimate it from your own files: for last year's downgrades, what changed between the first signal and the downgrade (proceeds spent, insurance unassigned, working capital gone)? Released hours are value only when you decide what they are for: more farm visits, more relationships per officer, or deeper reviews.
For most ag books, a few earlier finds a year decide the return
Farms found earlier a year needed to cover $100,000 of yearly cost, by loss avoided per farm, with 72 reviews saving 14 hours at $53
$20,000 avoided per farm2.3 farms
$40,000 avoided per farm1.2 farms
$80,000 avoided per farm0.6 farms
Illustrative · replace with your own numbers · Hours released: 72 × 14 × $53 = $53,424; the rest of the $100,000 must come from earlier finds. All inputs illustrative.
Show the numbers
Loss avoided
Farms a year
$20,000 avoided per farm
2.3 farms
$40,000 avoided per farm
1.2 farms
$80,000 avoided per farm
0.6 farms
Try three books. A 1,200-farm book with 6% reviewed and 4 earlier finds at $40,000 clears its cost. A 300-farm book with 3% reviewed needs between two and three earlier finds a year at $40,000 to break even. A 3,000-farm Farm Credit association with 8% reviewed recovers its cost on review hours alone.
Start here20 · Readiness check
Mapped farm acres, account data and insurance records: scoring your ag book's readiness for weekly alerts
In shortPick the answer closest to your team today. Eight questions score 0 to 2; the last is for reflection. The meter adds up your score as you go, and each question says why it matters and what a strong answer sounds like.
1
Size of the book
How many farm borrowers do you lend to?
Why it mattersWeekly watching pays most where officers cannot keep every farm in their heads.
A strong answer"About 1,200 farms across 30 counties, 9 officers."
2
Stress in the book
Are renewals, extensions and carryover rising in your book this year?
Why it mattersEvery regional Fed survey reported more renewals and extensions in 2025 and 2026; a rising trend shortens the time you have.15,13,19
A strong answer"Carryover is up on about a fifth of our grain farms, and we know which ones."
3
Your baseline
Do you know, for last year's downgrades, how long before the downgrade the first signal appeared?
Why it mattersNo public benchmark exists for warning lead time, so your own is the only way to prove an improvement.
A strong answer"For 12 downgrades, the first signal was in our accounts four months earlier on average."
4
Account data
Can you pull line balances, deposits, overdrafts and payments for every farm, by day, for five years?
Why it mattersComparing each farm with its own seasonal pattern needs its history.
A strong answer"Yes, from the core's nightly extract."
5
Where the farms are
Do you know each farm's acres and pastures by county and legal description?
Why it mattersDrought is only a signal on the farm's own acres; rented pasture is the most often missed.
A strong answer"Mortgaged land from legal descriptions, rented ground from acreage reports."
6
Insurance and programs
Do you track each farm's crop insurance coverage, premium status, claims and assignments?
Why it mattersWithout an assignment on the insurer's form, the indemnity goes to the farmer.4
A strong answer"Coverage and assignments in the loan file, claims logged when filed."
7
Policy and authority
Are your rating definitions, watch-list criteria and approval authority written down?
Why it mattersThey become settings, and examiners test ratings against them.1
A strong answer"Written, with who approves ratings 5, 6 and 7 and a monthly committee."
8
Governance
Do you have a path to approve software that scores borrowers: vendor due diligence, a view on the 2026 model guidance, and named approvers?
Why it mattersA weighted score may be a model; generative drafting falls to your own AI policy.40,41
A strong answer"Model risk and vendor management have a path, and every rating change needs a named signer."
9
Vision · for reflection
If a drought moved into three of your counties next Thursday, how would you know by Monday which farms there need a call?
Why it mattersYour answer lists the gaps: mapping, insurance, account history, the farm's own breakeven. Each is a job for software or a process.
A strong answerA short, specific list, for example: "acres mapped, insurance tracked, accounts against each farm's own norm, a reason on every flag."
Lead-time baseline, a few-county pilot or the whole ag book
0–6
Explore
Build the baseline: measure lead time on last year's downgrades, map your farms' acres, write down your watch-list criteria. Start narrow, for example by matching sale deposits to notes on your cattle book.
7–11
Ready to pilot
Run a measured pilot on two or three counties for a season: alerts against your officers' own list, false alarms, lead time and review hours, with your people deciding every rating.
12–16
Ready to implement
Plan the whole book: data feeds, your policy as settings, approval authority, the committee pack, loan review access and the evidence an examiner will ask for.
21 · Questions for any vendor
How to tell weather from trouble in a vendor's farm alerts: sixteen questions for any ag early warning tool
In shortAsk every vendor the same questions, us included. The answers show how a flag is built: what it reads, how it tells weather from trouble, whether it explains itself, whose policy it follows, and how you would measure it on your own book.
Ask
A good answer
A warning sign
What it reads
How does it place each farm's acres on the drought map, including rented pasture?
Legal descriptions, leases and acreage reports; unmapped acres sent to the officer
The borrower's mailing address
Which account data does it use, and how often?
Lines, deposits, overdrafts, payments, daily or nightly, with five years of history
Past-due reports only
Does it read interim statements, insurance notices and FSA letters?
Yes, each figure with its page
Only structured fields someone typed in
Telling weather from trouble
What happens when a drought covers a whole county?
Each farm checked against insurance, payments, line use and its breakeven before it stays flagged
Every farm in the county alerted
Is line use compared with the book or with the farm's own seasonal pattern?
The farm's own, month by month
One threshold for every farm
How are prices set against each farm's breakeven?
From the farm's last cash flow, with weeks under it counted
National prices only
Does it match sale deposits to the notes the livestock or grain secures?
Yes, and flags proceeds not applied
Deposits treated as good news
Explaining the flag
Can every alert show its signals, weights and sources?
Yes, down to the map date and the document
A score and a color
What does a drafted review say it did not check?
It names what it took as given, such as the last appraisal
Nothing; everything looks certain
Your policy and people
Who changes a rating, adds to the watch list or contacts a borrower?
Your named people only, with the decision and its meaning recorded
"The system updates the rating"
Are thresholds, weights and approvers your settings, versioned?
Yes, with who changed what and when
The vendor tunes them
Does dismissing a high alert need a reason?
Yes, kept on the audit trail
Alerts can be cleared silently
Data, AI and proof
Which AI models are used, where do they run, and does our data train them?
Named models, a region you choose, no training on your data, in writing
"Proprietary AI"
How should we classify the score under the 2026 model guidance?
A component-by-component answer your model risk team can use
"It isn't a model" without reasons
Can we back-test it on last year's book and downgrades?
Yes: lead time, false alarms and misses reported
Demo data only
What will you report from a pilot?
Lead time against your downgrades, alerts per officer, false alarms, review hours
One accuracy percentage
We found no published independent test of any ag early warning vendor's lead time or false alarm rate, as of October 2026. A back-test on your own downgrades is the fairest comparison, and it measures your current process too.
22 · How to start
Back-testing on last year's downgrades, then a few counties live for one season
In shortBack-test first on last year's downgrades, then run live on a few counties alongside your officers, then decide with three numbers. None of these steps commits you to a vendor.
Measure your lead time: for last year's downgrades, find the first signal in your own accounts and statements.
Pick two or three counties with a mix of crops and cattle, and map the farms' acres, owned and rented.
Write your policy as settings: drought trigger, line use norm, deposit decline, overdrafts, cattle sold, overdue interims, alert levels, approvers.
Back-test, then run live for a season, with your officers keeping their own list and your manager deciding every rating.
Decide with three numbers: lead time against your downgrades, false alarms per officer per week, and hours per review.
A sixteen-week pilot ends with a decision on three numbers
Your teamVendor
Measure lead time on last year's downgrades
Choose counties; map acres
Load account feeds and your policy
Back-test on last year's book
Live weekly scans beside your officers
Score lead time, false alarms, hours
Decide
Week 0481216
Illustrative · replace with your own numbers
Show the numbers
Activity
From
To
Measure lead time on last year's downgrades
0
3
Choose counties; map acres
1
4
Load account feeds and your policy
2
6
Back-test on last year's book
5
7
Live weekly scans beside your officers
7
14
Score lead time, false alarms, hours
13
15
Decide
15
16
Lead time, false alarms and misses on the early warning pilot
Measure
How
Why
Lead time
Weeks between the first alert and your downgrade, on back-test and live farms
The whole case rests on it
False alarms
Alerts your manager dismisses, per officer per week, with reasons
A list nobody trusts goes unread
Misses
Farms your officers flagged that the scan did not
Shows which signal is missing
Review hours
Stopwatch from opening the alert to the signed decision
The hours lever
Proceeds and assignments
Unapplied sale deposits and unassigned claims found, in dollars
Money the bank can act on now
The full working-session questions: 15 questions in five groups
Bring ag lending, credit administration, portfolio risk, loan review, special assets, model risk, vendor management and IT into one room. Each question says why it matters, what a strong answer looks like, and the warning sign.
A
Enterprises, counties and concentrations in the ag book
A1
How is our book split by enterprise and county, and where are the concentrations?
Why it mattersDrought and price shocks hit enterprises and counties together.
Strong answer · warning sign
Exposure by enterprise and county, current.
A year-end spreadsheet.
A2
How much carryover did we roll into this year's lines, and on which farms?
Why it mattersCarryover is the clearest sign a farm is living on its cushion.
Strong answer · warning sign
A list by officer.
Nobody tracks it.
A3
Which of last year's downgrades surprised us, and why?
Why it mattersThe surprises show which signal you lack.
Strong answer · warning sign
A short list with causes.
"None did."
B
Daily account history, legal descriptions and acreage
B1
Can we get five years of daily account history per farm?
Why it mattersEach farm's own seasonal pattern needs it.
Strong answer · warning sign
A nightly feed exists.
Only month-end balances.
B2
Where are legal descriptions, leases and acreage reports kept?
Why it mattersThey place the farm on the map.
Strong answer · warning sign
In the document system, by borrower.
In officers' desks.
B3
How do we learn of insurance claims and FSA payments?
Why it mattersThey decide whether a bad year becomes a loss.
Strong answer · warning sign
Notices filed as they arrive.
From the borrower, at renewal.
C
Watch-list criteria and who moves a farm's rating
C1
What puts a farm on our watch list, and who decides?
Why it mattersCriteria and authority become settings.
Strong answer · warning sign
Written criteria and authority by rating.
The manager's judgment, unrecorded.
C2
Do we require sale proceeds applied, and do we check?
Why it mattersExaminers expect collateral control.1
Strong answer · warning sign
In the security agreement, checked monthly.
"Our farmers are good about it."
C3
When a farm is flagged, what happens within a week?
Why it mattersAn alert without a next step is noise.
Strong answer · warning sign
A call, a visit or a dismissal with a reason.
It waits for renewal.
D
Model risk rules for a farm credit scoring tool
D1
Has our model risk policy moved to the April 2026 guidance, and how will we treat a scoring tool?
Why it mattersSR 11-7 was replaced on April 17, 2026.40
Strong answer · warning sign
Updated, with a view on AI tools.
Still cites SR 11-7.
D2
What does vendor management need before a pilot sees borrower data?
Why it mattersDue diligence is yours.
Strong answer · warning sign
A known path and timeline.
First time anyone has asked.
D3
Who sponsors the change?
Why it mattersA pilot without a sponsor ends as a demonstration.
Strong answer · warning sign
The chief credit officer.
No one.
E
Every farm re-scored the morning the drought map comes out
E1
What if every farm were re-scored the morning the drought map came out?
Why it mattersTests the appetite for a weekly rhythm.
Strong answer · warning sign
"Officers would start Monday with a call list."
"We would not look until month end."
E2
What would our officers do with the hours a drafted review saves?
Why it mattersReleased hours are value only when used.
Strong answer · warning sign
More farm visits.
No plan.
E3
Which steps would we never let software take without a person?
Why it mattersTells you where the signatures belong.
Strong answer · warning sign
Ratings, the watch list, every word to a borrower.
"All of it": then start with mapping and account checks.
23 · Frequently asked questions
Farm loan warning signs, 2026 delinquency, carryover debt and borrower rights, one answer each
In shortThe questions ag lenders and buyers search for most, each answered on its own.
What is an agricultural credit early warning system?
An agricultural credit early warning system watches an ag loan book between annual reviews and flags the farm borrowers whose repayment capacity is weakening. It combines weather (the Drought Monitor), prices against each farm's breakeven, the bank's own account data, interim financials, and crop insurance and program notices. The output is a short, ranked list of farms to call, each with its reasons.
What are the early warning signs of a farm loan in trouble?
The common early signs are an operating line drawn well above the farm's usual level for the month, falling deposits, overdrafts, sales of breeding livestock or grain whose proceeds do not reach the loan, unusual hay or feed purchases, late or missing interim financials, an unpaid crop insurance premium, and a claim with no assignment to the lender. Late payments usually come last.
How do lenders use the U.S. Drought Monitor?
Lenders place each farm's acres and pastures on the weekly map, which is released on Thursdays with data through the previous Tuesday morning, and track how many weeks each farm sits at D2 or worse. Drought alone does not justify a lower rating. Lenders check it against insurance, payments and line use. The same map triggers Livestock Forage Disaster Program payments for ranchers.
What is working capital per acre, and what is a good level?
Working capital per acre is current assets minus current liabilities, divided by the farm's crop acres. No standard band exists; the University of Minnesota scorecard instead uses working capital to gross revenues, with under 10% vulnerable and over 30% strong. Illinois grain farms had a median of 67% of gross farm returns in 2024, down from 75% in 2023.
What is a good term debt coverage ratio for a farm?
Term debt coverage is the cash left after expenses, family living and taxes, divided by the year's scheduled payments on term loans. The University of Minnesota scorecard treats under 1.25 as vulnerable and over 1.75 as strong; each lender's credit policy sets its own floor. Re-project it during the year at current prices and herd size; the year-end statement arrives months later.
What do the Kansas City, Chicago and Minneapolis Fed ag credit surveys show for 2026?
All three reported weaker repayment and more renewals and extensions through 2025 and into 2026. The Chicago Fed's May 2026 AgLetter put its renewals index at 136, the highest since 2020, with 17% of borrowers carrying more carryover debt; the Kansas City Fed's August 2026 survey found under 10% of balances with major or severe repayment problems; the Minneapolis Fed's February 2026 report found 44% of lenders seeing lower repayment rates.
Are farm loan delinquencies rising in 2026?
Slowly. At FDIC-insured banks, noncurrent farmland loans were 0.90% and farm production loans 0.71% at June 30, 2026, up from 2023 lows but below 2020 levels. At the Farm Credit System, nonperforming assets were 1.09% of loans and the share of loans classified less than Acceptable rose to 6.8%, which is the clearer sign of stress.
What is carryover debt in agricultural lending?
Carryover debt is operating or feeder livestock debt a farm could not repay from the year's production, rescheduled into the next line or into a longer loan. The FDIC's examination manual also uses the term for existing term debt rescheduled for lack of cash flow. Rising carryover means a farm is living on its working capital.
Why does a crop insurance assignment of indemnity matter to a lender?
Under the federal Common Crop Insurance Policy, an insurer pays a lender only if an assignment of indemnity is on the insurer's own form; otherwise it will not pay a lienholder even if a lien is recorded elsewhere. With a valid assignment, the indemnity is paid jointly to the farmer and the lender. Lenders check every claim on a loan for an assignment.
How many farm bankruptcies were there in 2025 and 2026?
U.S. bankruptcy courts recorded 315 Chapter 12 filings in calendar 2025, up from 216 in 2024 and 139 in 2023, 336 in the twelve months to June 30, 2026, and 361 in the twelve months to September 30, 2026. That is still below 2019's 599. The Chapter 12 debt limit is $12,562,250 for cases filed from April 1, 2025.
What must a lender do when an FSA-guaranteed farm loan defaults?
Under 7 CFR 762.143, a standard or certified guaranteed lender must meet the borrower within 15 days of default, or 45 days after the due date for a missed payment, agree a course of action, and decide whether to restructure or liquidate within 90 days of default unless FSA extends it. Preferred lenders service defaults under their lender agreement.
What rights does a Farm Credit borrower have when a loan becomes distressed?
A Farm Credit lender must give a distressed borrower notice of the right to seek restructuring, with its distressed-loan policy, at least 45 days before starting foreclosure. If restructuring would cost the lender no more than foreclosure, the lender must restructure. These rights come from the Agricultural Credit Act of 1987 and FCA rules in 12 CFR part 617.
Can AI predict farm loan defaults?
Software can combine drought, prices, account behavior, financials and insurance for every farm every week and rank the farms most likely to be weakening, with reasons. Its value has to be measured on your own book: lead time against your past downgrades, false alarms and misses. Rating changes and anything said to a borrower should stay with named people.
24 · One-page summary
From drought map to signed rating: the six-step early warning method and the 2026 farm credit figures
Print this page
In shortThe whole guide on one screen: the method, the 2026 facts, the readiness bands and the terms.
The method
Place every farm's acres, owned and rented, on the weekly Drought Monitor map.
Price each farm's commodities against its own breakeven.
Compare line use, deposits and payments with the farm's own seasonal pattern; match sale deposits to the notes they secure.
Read interims, insurance notices and program letters as they arrive; check premiums and assignments.
Score drought together with its mitigants; show every reason and source.
Re-project the year, draft the review, and let a named person decide the rating.
Readiness: score 0–2 on eight questions: 0–6 explore · 7–11 pilot · 12–16 implement.
As of October 2026: direct government payments $47.4B forecast for 2026 · FCS loans below Acceptable 6.8% (June 30) · Chapter 12 filings 315 in 2025 · SR 26-2 replaced SR 11-7 on April 17, 2026 · FSA "Driving Efficiency" rule effective October 1, 2026.
14 terms
Working capital
Current assets less current liabilities; the farm's cash cushion.
Current ratio
Current assets ÷ current liabilities; under 1.3 is vulnerable on the scorecard.
Term debt coverage
Cash left for term debt ÷ scheduled term payments.
Debt-to-asset
Total farm debt ÷ total farm assets.
Breakeven
The price a farm needs to cover its costs, from its own cash flow.
Carryover
Operating debt not repaid from the year's production and rolled forward.
Drought Monitor
The weekly U.S. map grading drought D0 to D4; released Thursdays.
D2 · D3 · D4
Severe, extreme and exceptional drought.
Assignment of indemnity
The insurer's form that makes a crop insurance claim payable jointly to the lender.
LFP
Livestock Forage Disaster Program; pays ranchers by Drought Monitor triggers.
ARC · PLC
Federal revenue and price support programs for crops on base acres.
Special mention
A rating for potential weaknesses that deserve close attention.
Watch list
The lender's list of borrowers rated special mention or worse, each with a plan.
Chapter 12
Bankruptcy reorganization for family farmers; debt limit $12,562,250.
25 · Sources
Sources
Accessed October 2026. Regulatory status statements are as of October 2026.
FDIC, QBP time series spreadsheets, Second Quarter 2026 (loan performance). fdic.gov
USDA ERS, Farm Sector Income Forecast, September 3, 2026. ers.usda.gov
Common Crop Insurance Policy, Basic Provisions §§1, 2, 14, 29: last codified text at 7 CFR 457.8 (GovInfo 2025 edition); since May 1, 2026 the policy is published by USDA's Risk Management Agency and no longer printed in the CFR (91 FR 16151, April 1, 2026). govinfo.gov
National Drought Mitigation Center, "What is the U.S. Drought Monitor?". droughtmonitor.unl.edu
USDA ERS, Assets, Debt, and Wealth, September 3, 2026. ers.usda.gov
USDA ERS, Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast, updated September 3, 2026. ers.usda.gov
Farm Credit Administration, Quarterly Report on Economic Conditions and FCS Condition and Performance (as of June 30, 2026), September 10, 2026 board meeting. fca.gov
Paulson, Schnitkey, Coppess and Zulauf, "Farmer Bridge Assistance Program Payment Rates", farmdoc daily (16):3, January 6, 2026. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
Paulson, Monaco, Schnitkey and Zulauf, "2025 Final ARC/PLC Payments", farmdoc daily (16):185, October 13, 2026. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-676), October 9, 2026. usda.gov
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Ag Credit Survey, "Steady Tightening of Agricultural Credit Conditions Persists", August 14, 2026. kansascityfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, AgLetter No. 2011, February 2026. chicagofed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, AgLetter No. 2012, May 2026. chicagofed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, AgLetter No. 2013, "Second Quarter Midwest Farmland Values Unchanged", August 2026. chicagofed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Ag Credit Survey, "Subdued Farm Economy Weighs on Land Values and Credit Conditions", May 15, 2025. kansascityfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Ag Credit Survey, "Farmland Values Remain Firm Despite Deterioration in Farm Finances", February 11, 2026. kansascityfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, "Strong harvests were cold comfort for district farmers", February 12, 2026. minneapolisfed.org
FDIC, Quarterly Banking Profile, Second Quarter 2026 (tables II-A, III-A, V-A; community banks), August 25, 2026. fdic.gov
FCA, Major financial indicators (June 30, 2026). fca.gov
FCA, News Release NR 26-13, September 10, 2026. fca.gov
University of Minnesota (Center for Farm Financial Management), Farm Finance Scorecard (via K-State AgManager). agmanager.info
Mashange and Zwilling, "Examining Working Capital Trends in 2024 Amid Lower Net Farm Incomes", farmdoc daily (15):211, November 14, 2025. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu
U.S. Drought Monitor data services, drought severity statistics by area percent (Nebraska, Kansas, U.S.), read October 31, 2026. usdmdataservices.unl.edu
FSA, "Enhancing Program Access and Delivery for Farm Loans", 89 FR 65020, August 8, 2024 (effective September 25, 2024). govinfo.gov
FSA, "Driving Efficiency in Farm Loan Delivery", 91 FR 56741, September 4, 2026 (effective October 1, 2026). govinfo.gov
U.S. Courts, Table F-2, cases commenced by chapter, one table for each 12-month period ending December 31 (2010 to 2025; the 2025 table is linked). uscourts.gov
U.S. Courts, "Bankruptcies Rise 12.2 Percent", July 28, 2026, and Table F-2 (June 30, 2026). uscourts.gov
U.S. Courts, Table F-2, cases commenced by chapter, 12-month period ending September 30, 2026. uscourts.gov
Judicial Conference, Adjustment of Certain Dollar Amounts Applicable to Bankruptcy Cases, 90 FR 8941, February 4, 2025. govinfo.gov
American Farm Bureau Federation, Market Intel, "Farm Bankruptcies Continued to Climb in 2025", February 9, 2026. fb.org
Federal Reserve SR 26-2, OCC Bulletin 2026-13 and FDIC FIL-15-2026, "Revised Guidance on Model Risk Management", April 17, 2026. federalreserve.gov
Farm Credit Administration, Artificial intelligence (updated April 30, 2026). fca.gov
BLS, Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026 (FRASER copy). fraser.stlouisfed.org
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