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The complete guide · November 2026

Drug target assessment, explained.

Most medicines work by acting on one protein in the body, called the target. Picking the wrong one can waste years, and the error may not show until a medicine reaches human trials. So before a discovery team commits, scientists read what is known about the protein, grade how strong that evidence is, and put a recommendation in front of the people who decide.

This guide is for anyone who reads, grades, signs or pays for that review: target discovery scientists, therapeutic-area heads, computational biologists, translational safety scientists, portfolio committees, and anyone at a biotech who wants to know how a target gets a yes. No background needed.

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A quick example · fictional

Imagine you are the Head of Immunology target discovery at Northwind Bio, a drug company. It is Wednesday, October 7, 2026, and the portfolio committee meets on October 22. On your desk is NWT-31, your team's code name for a protein that may drive ulcerative colitis, a long-term inflammation of the large bowel. Genetics looks excellent: people born with a certain version of the gene have about 29% lower odds of the disease. The review holds 142 claims from 61 sources. You could sign it today.

Then you open the safety section, and two lines disagree.

Population study
Who
212 people with one faulty copy
Checked
1,400 health traits
Found
No immune deficiency, no serious infection
Case report, 2023
Who
Two siblings, both copies partly faulty
Since
Early childhood
Found
Chronic fungal infections of skin and mouth
"Carriers look healthy"Safety is a C: what happens at full effect?and your safety scientist has to co-sign.

A 212-person study and a two-person report do not carry equal weight, yet the two people may show what a strong medicine would do. Neither line settles it. You decide with both in view.

What careful grading catches: the one small report that changes what a yes must promise, found before the money is spent.

Drug target assessment guide
Part A · Understand it

How a discovery team decides which protein deserves its money

The six questions, where the evidence lives, how it is graded, what human genetics does and does not prove, why published results fail, and what a wrong choice costs. Nothing here sells anything. If you are new to drug discovery, start here.

01 · In plain words

Drug target assessment in plain words: reading before spending

Think of a disease as a machine that has gone wrong, with thousands of moving parts. Most of those parts are proteins. A medicine usually works by acting on one of them, turning it down, turning it up or blocking it. That part is called the target. If you pick the right one, the medicine has a chance. If you pick the wrong one, a perfectly made medicine can reach the part, change it exactly as planned, and leave the disease untouched.

The trouble is timing. Developing a new drug from the first idea to a finished product can take 12 to 15 years.1 The first real test of whether a target matters in people with the disease usually comes in a mid-stage trial, called Phase 2, long after the choice was made. So companies try to find out earlier, by reading. A scientist collects what the world has published about the protein, adds what the company has measured itself, and writes it up.

That write-up has many names: target assessment, target review, target dossier. It answers a short list of plain questions. Do people whose genes change this protein get the disease more or less often? Is the protein present in the cells that matter? When scientists change it in the lab, does the disease change? Could the kind of medicine we make reach it? What goes wrong when it is taken away? Who else is already working on it?

Each answer gets a grade for how strong the evidence is. Then a person who carries the responsibility, usually the head of a disease area, recommends going ahead, going ahead with conditions, waiting for more evidence, or stopping. A portfolio committee then weighs that target against the others competing for the same budget. The published recommendations on this work put it directly: scientists "are ultimately responsible for deciding when a 'quality of evidence' level is reached".2

From a protein someone noticed to a program with a budget

  1. A candidate appearsFrom a genetic study, a lab screen, a paper, a clinician's observation or a partner's pitch. It is a name and a hunch.
  2. Scientists assess itRead the published evidence and internal data, answer six questions, grade each one, and challenge the weak points.
  3. The lead signs a recommendationAdvance, advance with conditions, hold for more evidence, or stop, with the reasons and the open questions on the record.
  4. The committee decidesIt weighs this target against the others on a common scale, and money moves, or does not.
  5. Experiments test it, and the review comes backLab work checks the weakest grades, new studies appear elsewhere, and the assessment is read again.

Step 2 is the subject of this guide, with steps 3 and 5 where they touch it. How any medicine is designed or made is outside this guide.

Few published papers cover safety, and three more surprises about target reviews

The literature answers one question well

Of 428 academic articles on target validation, 85.5% discussed the link to disease and only 9.1% discussed potential safety issues.2 A review built only from papers inherits that gap.

Few medicines in trials have genetic backing

Only 4.8% of target-disease pairs active in clinical phases have inherited (germline) genetic support, although that support predicts success.3 The strongest evidence is also the rarest.

Some of what you read will not repeat

When independent labs repeated 50 experiments from high-impact cancer papers, effects came out 85% smaller at the median.4 A strong result in one lab is a reason to look harder.

No rule says what is enough

The published framework says guidelines "must be flexible and fit for purpose".2 We found no regulator that reviews a target choice, so each company must write its own bar.

Target, modality, loss of function, tractability: terms for your first target review

Target

The molecule in the body a medicine acts on, usually a protein. Written with its gene's name in papers, and often a code name inside a company.

Modality

The kind of medicine: a small molecule, an antibody, an oligonucleotide and so on. A target may suit one kind and not another.

Loss of function

A gene variant that leaves a protein weaker or absent. People who carry one show what a lifetime of having less of that protein does.

Tractability

Whether the planned kind of medicine could plausibly reach and affect the target, judged from what has been published and measured.

Fourteen terms are defined in the one-page summary.

02 · The six questions

The six questions every drug target review has to answer

In shortIdentification names a candidate, validation tests whether it drives the disease, and assessment adds what a company must know before paying: expression (where the target is present), tractability, what happens when the target is removed, and who else is there. Six questions cover that ground, and published research rarely addresses more than one.

Three words get used as if they meant the same thing. Identification produces a candidate. Validation tests a causal claim. The published GOT-IT recommendations say the term "can be understood in numerous ways depending on the context" and "usually describes the technical evaluation of whether a target has a key role in a disease process".2 Assessment is the wider judgment: validation plus the questions a scientific paper rarely asks.

Two public frameworks shape what teams ask. GOT-IT (Guidelines On Target Assessment for Innovative Therapeutics), funded by Germany's Federal Ministry of Education and Research and written for academic scientists, groups the work into five blocks: target-disease linkage, safety aspects, microbial targets, strategic issues, and technical feasibility.2 AstraZeneca's review of its own pipeline produced the "five Rs": right target, right patient, right tissue, right safety and right commercial potential.5 The six questions below are one common way of cutting that ground, and the one this guide follows.

QuestionWhat it asksStrong evidence looks likeWeak evidence looks like
GeneticsDoes human genetics link the target to the disease, and in which direction?A replicated association, with the causal gene resolved and the direction statedOne small study, or a signal in a region with many genes
ExpressionIs the target in the cells that drive the disease, and where else?Protein and RNA (the cell's working copy of a gene) measured in the disease cell type, against healthy tissueRNA alone, or whole tissue with cell types mixed
Pathway biologyWhen someone changes the target, does the disease process change?Human cells and animal models, repeated by independent groups, with effect sizesOne laboratory, or animals only
TractabilityCould the planned modality plausibly reach it?Published and internal evidence specific to that modalityAn argument by analogy with a related protein
SafetyWhat happens when the target is taken away, in people, in animals, in tissues?Human carriers at scale, with health traits checkedMouse data alone, or a score with no observed effect in people
Competition and patentsWho else is on it, how far ahead, and what do the patents cover?A current list by company, modality and phase; counsel reviews any patent concernA list a quarter old
Published target papers cover the disease link and little else

Share of 428 academic articles on target validation and assessment that addressed each topic

The link to disease and patients85.5%
Potential safety issues9.1%
Three-dimensional structure8.6%
Biomarkers6.1%
Patents and intellectual property2.1%
Whether the target can be measured in an assay1.9%

Source 2

Show the numbers
ItemValue
The link to disease and patients85.5%
Potential safety issues9.1%
Three-dimensional structure8.6%
Biomarkers6.1%
Patents and intellectual property2.1%
Whether the target can be measured in an assay1.9%

Read that chart as a warning about method. A paper makes one argument, and the link to disease is the argument journals publish. So a review written by summarizing the literature will speak confidently about disease and go quiet on everything else, and a section left empty can read like a question nobody needed to ask. Treating each question as required, with a low grade when evidence is missing, makes the silence visible.

03 · Rules and dates

We found no regulator that reviews a target choice: the rules that begin later, and the AI dates that matter

In shortWe found nothing in FDA or EU rules that approves or inspects a company's choice of target. FDA's draft on AI excludes drug discovery. EMA says discovery can be low impact unless its results feed a filing. The EU AI Act excludes systems built solely for research, and the review itself sits outside good laboratory practice. As of November 2026, your governance is your own.

This is the rare part of medicine development with no regulatory filing of its own. No regulator says so in those words; it is our reading of the rules below, and we found no rule that asks an inspector to read a target review. FDA's good laboratory practice rule defines the studies it covers and leaves out "basic exploratory studies carried out to determine whether a test article has any potential utility".6 Rules on trial applications, safety studies and manufacturing all arrive later.

That freedom has limits. A discovery finding can end up inside a filing as part of the reason for a program, and then its origins start to matter. EMA says so: AI in discovery "can be low regulatory impact if non-optimal performance only affects the developer", but if results "contribute to the total body of evidence presented for regulatory review", the principles for non-clinical development should be followed.7

AI and animal-evidence dates a discovery team should know, as of November 2026
  1. Sep 2024EMA reflection paper

    Final. Discovery can be low impact unless it feeds a filing.

  2. Jan 2025FDA draft on AI

    Does not address AI used in drug discovery. Still a draft.

  3. Apr 2025FDA animal testing roadmap

    Plan to reduce, refine or replace animal testing, starting with antibodies.

  4. Dec 2025FDA draft on primate testing

    Six-month primate studies reduced for certain antibodies. Draft.

  5. Jan 2026EMA and FDA ten principles

    Good AI practice, across all phases from early research.

  6. Jul 2026EU AI Omnibus in force

    Moves high-risk dates to December 2027 and August 2028.

  7. Sep 2026FDA rule on nonclinical wording

    Swaps 'animal' for 'nonclinical' in several rules, effective February 4, 2027 unless withdrawn. Animal studies stay allowed.

Source 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Show the numbers
WhenWhat
Sep 2024EMA reflection paper
Jan 2025FDA draft on AI
Apr 2025FDA animal testing roadmap
Dec 2025FDA draft on primate testing
Jan 2026EMA and FDA ten principles
Jul 2026EU AI Omnibus in force
Sep 2026FDA rule on nonclinical wording
TextStatus, November 2026What it means for a target review
FDA draft guidance on AI for regulatory decision-makingDraft, January 7, 2025It "does not address the use of AI models" in drug discovery.8
EMA reflection paper on AIFinal, September 9, 2024Low impact if only the developer bears the risk. Review models and datasets if results may feed a filing, including for bias against people whose genotype, their genetic makeup, is not the majority one.7
EU AI Act, Article 2(6)Law. The AI Omnibus, which amends it, in force July 27, 202612Excludes systems "specifically developed and put into service for the sole purpose of scientific research and development". Recital 25 keeps other AI systems used in research inside the Act, so check which one you have.14
EMA and FDA ten principlesJanuary 14, 2026Common principles for AI across a medicine's life, from early research.11 A reference for your own policy.
Draft EU GMP Annex 22Draft. EudraLex lists no Annex 2215Concerns good manufacturing practice (GMP). Out of scope here; a useful pointer if your AI policy spans the company.
GOT-IT, STROBE-MR, GRADE, ClinGenVoluntary and publishedThe closest things to standards for what a good answer looks like.2,16,17,18 Sections 02, 05 and 06 explain them.
Do not over-apply GxP. GxP is the family of quality rules for regulated work: laboratory, clinical and manufacturing. A target review is usually a research record outside it. Controls such as named signatures and full audit trails are good practice here because they help your decisions, and they support your compliance later if a review feeds regulated work. Nobody can certify a review, or a tool, as compliant.
04 · Where evidence lives

Where drug target evidence lives: papers, genetics portals, biobanks and your own lab

In shortThe evidence sits in at least six separate places, and each answers some questions and not others. Public resources are huge and free. Internal data is the part nobody else can read. Stitching them together, with each claim tied to its source, is where the reading weeks go.

Three terms recur here. A genome-wide study scans genetic variants across many people for one trait. A biobank holds genetic and health data on many people. Omics means large measurements of RNA, proteins and the like in a sample.

40M+

citations and abstracts in PubMed, the largest index of biomedical papers.

National Library of Medicine19
45,000+

published genome-wide studies across more than 5,000 human traits, in one public catalog, as of 2023.

GWAS Catalog20
133,441

published genetic loci (regions of the genome), each scored for which nearby gene is the likely cause.

Mountjoy et al., 202121

Public target portals bring much of this together. The Open Targets Platform, for example, assists "drug target identification and prioritisation using publicly available data".22 It changes often: its June 24, 2026 release added cell-level expression data and new genetic studies, and used a language model to mine clinical records.23

Its own documentation says how to read its target view: green marks "potentially positive attributes" and red "potentially negative attributes", NA means no information is available, and the view describes a target "in a disease agnostic way".24 A portal gives you a starting list and a set of pointers, and grading a claim for your decision stays with your team.

No single source can answer all six questions

Our reading of which source usually carries which question; your own data may shift it

RarelySometimesOftenMain source
GeneticsExpressionBiologyTractabilitySafetyCompetitionPublished papersOftenOftenMain sourceSometimesSometimesRarelyGenetics portals and biobanksMain sourceSometimesRarelyRarelyOftenRarelyExpression atlasesRarelyMain sourceRarelyRarelySometimesRarelyInternal omics and screensSometimesMain sourceMain sourceOftenSometimesRarelyStructure and chemistry recordsRarelyRarelyRarelyMain sourceRarelyRarelyTrial registries and competitor databasesRarelyRarelyRarelyRarelySometimesMain sourcePatent recordsRarelyRarelyRarelySometimesRarelyMain source

Our reading of the sources 2 22 24

Show the numbers
GeneticsExpressionBiologyTractabilitySafetyCompetition
Published papersOftenOftenMain sourceSometimesSometimesRarely
Genetics portals and biobanksMain sourceSometimesRarelyRarelyOftenRarely
Expression atlasesRarelyMain sourceRarelyRarelySometimesRarely
Internal omics and screensSometimesMain sourceMain sourceOftenSometimesRarely
Structure and chemistry recordsRarelyRarelyRarelyMain sourceRarelyRarely
Trial registries and competitor databasesRarelyRarelyRarelyRarelySometimesMain source
Patent recordsRarelyRarelyRarelySometimesRarelyMain source

Each source also ages at its own speed. A genome-wide study can change a genetics grade the week it appears. A competitor's program can start with no paper at all. Preprints arrive before peer review, so a team has to decide whether it reads them and how it labels them. Licensed journals add a practical limit: what you may store, quote and pass to a tool is set by your contract, so check before any full text moves.

Why reading target evidence takes weeks, compared with a formal literature review

We found no public figure for how long a target review takes. The nearest published measure comes from a different task with a far higher bar, the formal systematic review of medical treatments. Across 195 such reviews, the mean was 67.3 weeks from registration to publication, with a mean of 5 authors, and only 2.94% of the studies found were included.25 A target review is smaller and quicker than that, and has the same shape: most of what you retrieve does not count, and someone has to read it to find that out.

In formal reviews, about 3 of every 100 studies found make it in

Scaled from the mean yield of 2.94% across 195 systematic reviews. A benchmark for literature work, measured on medical treatments, with no target reviews in it.

Studies found1,000
Studies included29

Source 25

Show the numbers
StageCount
Studies found1,000
Studies included29
05 · How evidence is graded

Target prioritization starts with a grade: how evidence is scored, and how an average can hide a problem

In shortWe found no public scale for target reviews, so each team has to write its own; this guide's example uses A to D per question. A grade is useful when the bar was written before anyone read the evidence, when "independent" is defined, and when the person who sets the bar is different from the one who grades. An overall grade summarizes and can mislead.

Medicine has graded evidence for decades. The best-known scheme, GRADE, rates clinical evidence as high, moderate, low or very low, and lowers the rating for study limitations, inconsistent results, indirectness, imprecision and reporting bias.17 Genetics has its own: the ClinGen framework classes a gene's link to a disease as definitive, strong, moderate, limited, no reported evidence or conflicting evidence.18 Neither was built to rank targets. Both teach the same lesson: state in advance what earns each level, and allow "conflicting" as an honest answer.

A target team can use something simpler, such as A for strong, B for good, C for weak and D for a gap or a red flag. The value lies in the definitions. Here is what a written bar, or rubric, can look like. It is an example to adapt, drawn from the fictional case in this guide.

Grade A

Two independent human sources

Say what independent means. Two papers on one group of people, or two analyses of one biobank, count as one.

Grade B

Human evidence with a stated gap

A real result that lacks one thing: replication, a resolved gene, or protein to match the RNA. The gap is written down.

Grade C

Weak, or not yet confirmed

One small study, animals only, one laboratory, or a real concern still unanswered. A C always names what would raise it.

Grade D

A gap or a red flag

No evidence on a required question, or a finding serious enough to stop work unless it is overturned.

A worked example: turning six grades for NWT-31 into one overall grade

Northwind's fictional team scores A as 4, B as 3, C as 2 and D as 1, averages the six questions, and reads the result on a scale: 3.15 or above is B+, 2.85 or above is B, 2.6 or above is B−. NWT-31 scores A, B, A, B, C and B. That is 4 + 3 + 4 + 3 + 2 + 3 = 19, and 19 ÷ 6 = 3.17, which is a B+.

An average of 3.17 reads as B+ while safety sits at a C

The six grades for fictional target NWT-31, as points: A = 4, B = 3, C = 2, D = 1

4Genetics
3Expression
4Biology
3Tractability
2Safety
3Competition

Fictional example from this guide

Show the numbers
PeriodValue
Genetics4
Expression3
Biology4
Tractability3
Safety2
Competition3

So a target with a real open question on safety still reads as B+ overall. That is why careful rubrics add overrides. A D on safety can cap the overall grade at C, whatever the rest says: in the same fictional portfolio, a target scoring C, B, C, A, D, B averages 2.5 and is held at C. A C or D on safety can also call for a second signature. An overall grade helps a committee sort a list. The decision belongs to the six grades, read one at a time.

Three habits that keep target grades honest

Before the evidence

Write the bar first

A rule written after the reading tends to fit the reading. Date the rubric, and let every review cite the version it used.

In the review

Split who sets and who grades

Whoever wants the target to succeed should not decide what success means. A second reader asks the hard questions.

After the grade

Name what would change it

"C until a second group of people replicates it" tells the next reader what to look for, and tells the owner when to look again.

06 · Reading genetics

What human genetic evidence proves about a drug target, with the numbers worked through

In shortMedicines whose targets have human genetic support are estimated to succeed 2.6 times as often. The evidence counts only when it clears the strict statistical bar for genome scans, points to the right gene, and runs in the right direction. It raises the odds across many programs and promises nothing about one.

Genetics gets special weight because it is close to an experiment on people. Variants are handed out at conception, before any disease or treatment can affect them. That is the logic of Mendelian randomization: genotypes "are independent of non-genetic confounding, and are unmodified by disease processes".26 If people born with less of a protein get a disease less often, that protein probably sits on the causal path.

The size of that advantage has been estimated three times. In 2015, researchers saw the share of mechanisms with genetic support rise from 2.0% at the preclinical stage to 8.2% among approved drugs, and estimated it "could double" success in clinical development.27 A 2019 study confirmed the effect in Phases 2 and 3, and found more than a two-fold gain where the causal gene was clear.28

The 2024 update puts the figure at 2.6 times.3 In the same analysis, relative success was above 2 in 11 of 17 therapy areas and above 3 in hematology, metabolic, respiratory and endocrine disease.3

Mendelian evidence carries the largest advantage, at 3.7 times

Relative success of drug mechanisms with human genetic support, against those without. 1 means no advantage. Mendelian means passed from parents to children in set patterns; somatic means changes in body cells that children do not inherit.

Mendelian disease records (OMIM)3.7×
All genetic support combined2.6×
Somatic cancer evidence (IntOGen), in oncology2.3×

Source 3

Show the numbers
ItemValue
Mendelian disease records (OMIM)3.7×
All genetic support combined2.6×
Somatic cancer evidence (IntOGen), in oncology2.3×
About 5 in 100 target-disease pairs in clinical trials have genetic support
4.8 in 100

of target-disease pairs active in Phases 1 to 3 have germline genetic support (284 of 5,968)

Source 3

Show the numbers
MeasureValue
of target-disease pairs active in Phases 1 to 3 have germline genetic support (284 of 5,968)4.8 of 100

Four numbers on a genetic claim, read for fictional targets NWT-31 and NWT-30

What the paper reportsFictional exampleHow to read it
p-value, the chance of seeing this by luckNWT-30 in ALS: p = 4 × 10⁻⁵A genome scan runs about a million independent tests in Europeans,29 and the standard bar is 5 × 10⁻⁸,30 the same as 0.05 ÷ 1,000,000. 4 × 10⁻⁵ is 800 times weaker than that bar. Interesting, and unproven.
Odds ratio, the size of the effectNWT-31: odds ratio 0.710.71 means 29% lower odds of disease in carriers, since 1 − 0.71 = 0.29. Above 1 raises risk, below 1 protects. Effect size barely changed the 2.6 times advantage,3 so a small effect can still point to a good target.
Fine-mapping posterior, how sure the variant is the oneNWT-31: 0.86An 86% probability that this variant, among its neighbors, is the causal one. Colocalization asks a related question: do two signals share one cause?31
Locus-to-gene score, which gene it acts throughNWT-31: 0.81, highest of 9 genesA signal rarely names its gene, so a model estimates the likely one.21 Confidence in the causal gene does move the advantage, and the authors call even high scores "necessarily imperfect".3

Direction of effect: the question the 2.6 times figure leaves open

A genetic link tells you a protein matters. Direction tells you what a medicine should do to it. If carriers with less of the protein are protected, lowering it makes sense. If those with less of it get sick, lowering it could cause the disease. The 2024 authors state that "all of our analyses are naive to direction of genetic effect",3 so their figure cannot settle this for you. Your reviewer must state it for every genetic claim.

What does a 2.6 times advantage change for a portfolio? An illustration

The 2.6 figure compares groups of programs. Suppose, purely to show the arithmetic, that 8% of programs without genetic support reach approval. Those with support would reach 8% × 2.6 = 20.8%. To expect one approval you would need 1 ÷ 0.08 = 12.5 programs in the first group and 1 ÷ 0.208 = 4.8 in the second.

The 8% is our assumption. Overall approval sits around 10% of clinical programs.3 The authors add that the measure "does not address the probability" that a gene linked to a disease will yield a successful drug if targeted.3 So it can shape a portfolio, and it cannot promise you this target.

At these assumed rates, genetic support cuts programs per approval from 12.5 to 4.8

Arithmetic on an assumed 8% base rate and the published 2.6 times

Without genetic supportWith genetic support
Programs needed for one expected approval12.5 programs4.8 programs

Illustrative · replace with your own numbers

Show the numbers
Without genetic supportWith genetic support
Programs needed for one expected approval12.5 programs4.8 programs

When genetics corrects a story, and when it starts one: HDL and PCSK9

Two public cases show the method at work. For years, high HDL cholesterol looked protective against heart attacks: in observational studies, one standard deviation higher HDL went with an odds ratio of 0.62. A 2012 Mendelian randomization study found that the same rise caused by genes gave 0.93. Its confidence interval, the range likely to hold the true value, ran from 0.68 to 1.26, and that range crosses 1, the point of no effect.26 Genetics said the link was probably not causal.

Genetics removed most of the apparent benefit of high HDL

Odds ratio of heart attack per 1 standard deviation higher HDL cholesterol. Closer to 1 means less effect.

Observational studiesGenetic score
Odds ratio0.620.93

Source 26

Show the numbers
Observational studiesGenetic score
Odds ratio0.620.93

In the other direction, people with nonsense variants in the PCSK9 gene, which cut a protein short, had 28% lower LDL cholesterol and 88% lower risk of coronary heart disease in a 2006 study of 3,363 Black participants. The authors concluded that "moderate lifelong reduction" in LDL went with a substantial fall in coronary events.32

A reviewer should check Mendelian randomization papers against the STROBE-MR checklist, which asks authors to justify the method, describe how genetic variants were chosen, and report tests of its assumptions.16 One useful property: proteins sit closer to the gene than most risk factors do, which strengthens one of the method's key assumptions.33

07 · Why results fail

Why a published target result may not hold: replication, reagents and animal models

In shortPublished lab results are claims to weigh. In the largest public test, repeated cancer biology effects came out 85% smaller at the median. Many commercial antibodies fail, negative studies stay unpublished, and scientists still disagree about mouse models. A grade has to reflect who found a result, how often, and with what tools.

The Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology repeated 50 experiments from 23 high-impact papers. It tested 158 effects. For positive effects, the median replication effect was 85% smaller than the original, and 92% of replications came out smaller.4

The authors are careful about what this means: a failed replication "does not disconfirm a finding", though it "does suggest that additional investigation is needed".4 An older analysis estimated that more than half of preclinical research is not reproducible, at about $28 billion a year in the US.34 It is one analysis of past studies, so read it for scale.

40 in 100 positive effects replicated on most tests
40 in 100

positive effects (39 of 97) succeeded on three or more of five replication methods

Source 4

Show the numbers
MeasureValue
positive effects (39 of 97) succeeded on three or more of five replication methods40 of 100
The median replicated effect was 85% smaller than the original

Original effect set to 100; positive effects in preclinical cancer biology

Original experimentReplication
Median effect size, indexed10015

Source 4

Show the numbers
Original experimentReplication
Median effect size, indexed10015

What undermines a lab result, and what a target reviewer should check

Weak pointWhat is publishedWhat to look for in a paper
The antibodyOf 614 commercial antibodies for 65 proteins, more than 50% failed in at least one use. Many of the weak ones had been used in published articles.35A protein result backed by a knockout control (cells with the gene removed), or by a second method
The tool moleculeProbes, the research molecules used to test a protein, "of poor quality or that are used incorrectly generate misleading results".36A result repeated with an independent genetic method
The unpublished studyOf 525 animal stroke publications, only 1.2% reported no significant finding. Bias might account for about a third of the reported benefit.37Study registration, and any null results. Ask whether anyone has reported failing
The designA 2012 workshop asked animal studies to report sample size, randomization, blinding and data handling at the least.38Those four items, and a note of any that are missing
The modelOne analysis found mouse responses to inflammatory stress close to random against humans.39 A re-analysis of the same data found 77% to 93% of shared genes moving the same way.40Human cell or tissue evidence beside any mouse result; label animal-only evidence

MELK: a target that survived years of papers and failed one knockout test

A public case shows what the table protects against. Many reports described a protein called MELK as something several cancers depend on, with results from lab tools called RNA interference and small-molecule inhibitors, and a drug described as a MELK inhibitor entered trials.

In 2017, researchers deleted the gene with CRISPR, a precise gene-editing tool: cancer lines grew normally without it, and still died when given the drug.41 That suggests the drug was killing the cells some other way. A 2019 follow-up found the same pattern in other cancer drugs and targets.42 A review that asked "has anyone removed this gene cleanly?" would have graded that biology lower.

A modeling study suggests how much is at stake. It estimated that about one in 200 protein-disease pairings is truly causal, giving a false discovery rate of 92.6% in preclinical research on target selection.43 That number rests on assumptions, and the authors vary them. It does explain why a positive paper alone moves a careful reviewer so little.

What this means for animal-only evidence. FDA's April 2025 roadmap and December 2025 draft on primate testing concern later toxicity packages, and their direction is plain: FDA wants "human-relevant methods" where they can do the job.9,10 A team can treat animal-only biology as a C until human cell or human genetic evidence joins it. If yours does, write that into the bar.
08 · Taking the target away

What happens when a target is taken away: reading human carriers, knockouts and tissues

In shortThe safety question at this stage concerns biology, before any medicine exists. People who naturally carry less of the protein are the best evidence available, and they are rare. Conflicts between evidence types are the normal case, so a grade has to say which evidence it followed and why.

In this guide, safety means the target's own biology: what the body does without this protein. Later questions about a specific molecule and how it behaves belong to other teams and other documents. At the review stage you are asking what removing or dampening the protein might do, wherever it is found.

Natural human "knockouts" are the most direct evidence. The public gnomAD database identified 443,769 high-confidence predicted loss-of-function variants across 141,456 people.44

Three findings from the same period should shape how you read them. Even essential genes, where such variants are not tolerated, "can be highly successful as targets of inhibitory drugs". For most genes, finding people with both copies affected will take samples about 1,000 times larger than those available, unless recruitment focuses on consanguineous individuals, people whose parents are related. And automated filtering is powerful, though "manual curation remains crucial" to remove errors.45

Evidence, strongest firstWhat it tells youIts usual limit
People with both copies affectedWhat near-total loss does across a lifetimeUsually a few people, often a case report. Other causes hard to exclude
People with one copy affected, at scaleWhat about half the protein does, across many health traitsA medicine might go further than half. Variant calls need checking45
Animal knockoutsWhich organs depend on the proteinSpecies differ, and lifelong loss differs from treatment in adults
Tissue and cell expressionWhere a problem could occurPresence alone does not show that the protein is needed there
Constraint scores aloneWhether evolution tolerates losing the geneA weak predictor on its own, since even essential genes can succeed45

The ranking is our judgment from the sources cited, and teams may order it differently. The point is to write the order down.

The deepest evidence on losing a target comes from the fewest people

Our judgment of what each kind of evidence in the table offers. Teams may weigh it differently.

Little or noneSomeGoodHigh
How much protein is lostHow many people it coversHow directly it applies to peoplePeople with both copies affectedHighLittle or noneHighPeople with one copy affected, at scaleSomeHighHighAnimal knockoutsHighLittle or noneSomeTissue and cell expressionLittle or noneSomeSomeConstraint scores aloneLittle or noneHighLittle or none

Our reading of the sources 45

Show the numbers
How much protein is lostHow many people it coversHow directly it applies to people
People with both copies affectedHighLittle or noneHigh
People with one copy affected, at scaleSomeHighHigh
Animal knockoutsHighLittle or noneSome
Tissue and cell expressionLittle or noneSomeSome
Constraint scores aloneLittle or noneHighLittle or none

How the fictional NWT-31 safety grade came out a C

Return to the example at the top. One copy affected, 212 people, 1,400 traits, nothing found. Both copies partly affected, two siblings, chronic fungal infection since childhood. Mice with reduced activity clear a fungal infection more slowly. Low expression in heart, liver and kidney.

Which line wins? The carriers argue for a B. The siblings and the mice point to a real effect that may depend on dose, and a strong medicine might reach it. A cautious reader grades C and names what would raise it. Someone else can reasonably argue for B, with a follow-up study as a condition. Both views should stay on the record, and a scientist decides.

09 · Reach and rivals

Can the planned modality reach it, and who is already there? Tractability and competition

In shortTractability is a property of a target and a planned kind of medicine together, so it is graded against one stated modality. Competition ages faster than any other evidence. Patent questions go to counsel. Both are business judgments as much as scientific ones.

667

human proteins targeted by approved medicines, in one curated map.

Santos et al., 201746
1 in 3

human proteins carry a substantial knowledge gap, by one tracking system.

Oprea et al., 201847
22,940

drugs in the global R&D pipeline in 2026, down 3.92%, the first fall since the mid-1990s.

Citeline, in Chemistry & Industry; its author says data changes may make the year anomalous48

At the review stage, a tractability grade summarizes whether there is reason to believe the planned kind of medicine could reach the target. Portals sort the question into plain categories: is the protein on the cell surface, has a binder been reported, are good research tools available, has any drug on this target reached the clinic?24

The reviewer's job is to record what the evidence says for the modality the team intends, and to keep measured results apart from predictions. A predicted structure or binding site is a hypothesis. How to design a medicine is separate work for specialists, and has no place in the review.

A grade that names no modality says little, because the same protein can be a poor fit for one kind of medicine and a good fit for another. A sensible template refuses to plan the review until the modality is stated, and regrades if the plan changes.

Why the competition section ages first, and how a committee uses it

Competition has a different job from the other questions. Nothing in it says whether the biology is right. It says whether being right would still be worth the money by the time you arrive. A review might record each rival program by company, modality and phase, with the date of the check. The fictional template in this guide treats a list older than 30 days as out of date.

A rival's success can also help: it is evidence that the target works in people, called clinical precedent. So a crowded field can raise biology confidence while lowering commercial appeal.

The hardest calls sit where evidence is strong and the field is crowded

Our sketch of where kinds of target tend to sit. Place your own after a review.

Strength of human evidence →
Open field, strong evidence: move fast
Crowded and proven: needs a real difference
Open field, thin evidence: cheap experiments first
Crowded and thin: usually stop
New genetic hit, no rivalsProven pathway, many programsLab finding, no human dataPopular idea, one small study
How crowded the field is →

Illustrative · replace with your own numbers

Show the numbers
ItemHow crowded the field is (0–1)Strength of human evidence (0–1)
New genetic hit, no rivals0.200.75
Proven pathway, many programs0.750.72
Lab finding, no human data0.200.25
Popular idea, one small study0.720.25
Patents belong with counsel. A review can record which patent families exist and when they were checked. Whether a team is free to operate, meaning free of someone else's patents, is a legal opinion, given by a qualified attorney, on its own record. Publications rarely help here: only 2.1% of target validation papers addressed patents at all.2
10 · What goes wrong

Eight ways a target review misleads a portfolio committee

In shortMost failures are ordinary: a claim with no passage behind it, one study counted twice, a grade nobody can explain, a document nobody re-reads. We found no inspection record for this work, so we list errors from the published literature and from the logic of the method, and mark our judgment as ours.

The errorWhy it happensHow to catch it
A claim with no passageSummaries get copied from reviews and slidesEach number cites the table or figure. Sample ten and open them
One source counted twiceTwo papers analyze one biobank, or a review cites the originalWrite down what independent means
Direction assumedThe association is reported, and the mechanism story fills the gapRequire a stated direction for every genetic claim3
RNA read as proteinRNA data is plentiful, and protein data is harder to trust35Label each separately; an A needs both
The wrong geneA signal rarely names its gene, and the nearest gene is an easy guess21Report the causal-gene evidence and its confidence
A mechanism never truly testedThe tool molecule hits other things41Ask for a clean genetic test beside any inhibitor result
Different bars across teamsThree scientists, three private standardsOne written rubric, printed beside the grades
The hold nobody watchesThe review was a document, and no one owns what happens nextA named owner, and a trigger that would reopen it
Double counting hits genetics first, and a missing section hits safety

Our judgment of where each error is most likely. Test it against ten of your own past reviews.

UnlikelyPossibleCommonMost likely
GeneticsExpressionBiologyTractabilitySafetyCompetitionClaim with no passagePossiblePossibleCommonCommonCommonPossibleOne source counted twiceMost likelyPossibleCommonUnlikelyPossiblePossibleRNA read as proteinUnlikelyMost likelyPossibleUnlikelyPossibleUnlikelySingle laboratoryUnlikelyPossibleMost likelyPossiblePossibleUnlikelyOut-of-date evidenceCommonUnlikelyUnlikelyPossiblePossibleMost likelyMissing section reads as fineUnlikelyPossibleUnlikelyCommonMost likelyPossible

Our reading of the sources 2 3 4 35

Show the numbers
GeneticsExpressionBiologyTractabilitySafetyCompetition
Claim with no passagePossiblePossibleCommonCommonCommonPossible
One source counted twiceMost likelyPossibleCommonUnlikelyPossiblePossible
RNA read as proteinUnlikelyMost likelyPossibleUnlikelyPossibleUnlikely
Single laboratoryUnlikelyPossibleMost likelyPossiblePossibleUnlikely
Out-of-date evidenceCommonUnlikelyUnlikelyPossiblePossibleMost likely
Missing section reads as fineUnlikelyPossibleUnlikelyCommonMost likelyPossible

A pattern also shows up in what happened to decisions. In Pfizer's review of 44 Phase 2 programs, most failures came from lack of efficacy, and in 43% of cases it "was not possible to conclude whether the mechanism had been tested adequately".49 So the company had paid for a trial and still could not say whether its target idea was wrong. A review that records what would count as a fair test helps with that later question.

11 · What a wrong target costs

What choosing the wrong target costs a drug program, and when you find out

In shortAbout one in ten clinical programs reaches approval. Lack of efficacy is the major cause,43 and that points back to the target. A review costs weeks of a scientist's time, by our estimate; a Phase 2 trial averaged $13.35 million in a 2014 federal study. We found no study that measured how many failures a better review would have prevented.

Estimates differ by what they count. Wong and colleagues, using 406,038 trial records, put the path from Phase 1 to approval at 13.8%.50 Minikel and colleagues say "about 10%" of clinical programs.3 Both are defensible, because they count different groups.

The loss after Phase 2 is the one most tied to target choice, since that is where efficacy is first seriously tested. One trade report of AstraZeneca's review of 142 projects from 2005 to 2010 says that 65% of projects "failed during phase II due to lack of efficacy", in many cases because of a poor understanding of the target. It does not say 65% of which group. We read that report and did not read the paper itself.51

From Phase 1 to approval, 13.8% of programs make it through

Probability of success at each transition, all indications, industry programs, 2000 to 2015. Estimated separately, so do not multiply them.

Phase 1 to Phase 266.4%
Phase 2 to Phase 358.3%
Phase 3 to approval59%
Phase 1 to approval, overall13.8%

Source 50

Show the numbers
ItemValue
Phase 1 to Phase 266.4%
Phase 2 to Phase 358.3%
Phase 3 to approval59%
Phase 1 to approval, overall13.8%
Oncology programs reach approval least often, at 3.4%

Probability of success from Phase 1 to approval, by therapeutic group, industry programs, 2000 to 2015

Vaccines33.4%
Ophthalmology32.6%
Cardiovascular25.5%
Infectious disease25.2%
Genitourinary21.6%
Metabolic and endocrine19.6%
Autoimmune and inflammation15.1%
Central nervous system15%
Oncology3.4%

Source 50

Show the numbers
ItemValue
Vaccines33.4%
Ophthalmology32.6%
Cardiovascular25.5%
Infectious disease25.2%
Genitourinary21.6%
Metabolic and endocrine19.6%
Autoimmune and inflammation15.1%
Central nervous system15%
Oncology3.4%

That spread matters inside a portfolio. A B-graded target in oncology and a B-graded target in vaccines carry different odds, so a committee should keep therapy-area base rates beside the grades and avoid applying one number across the portfolio.

The cost of a new medicine, and why estimates differ by a factor of two or more

Before their own estimate, Wouters and colleagues note earlier figures from $314 million to $2.8 billion.52 What each estimate counts explains much of the gap. A capitalized figure also charges for the return an investor requires while the money is tied up.

EstimateFigureWhat it counts
Wouters et al., 2020Median $985.3 million; mean $1,335.9 millionFailures included, capitalized at 10.5%, 2018 dollars, 63 products from public filings, mainly smaller firms52
Sertkaya et al., 2024, as summarized in a published commentaryMean $879.3 million ($1.1 billion in 2023 dollars)Failures included, capitalized at 11%, 2018 dollars53
ASPE, 2014Phase 2 trial: average $13.35 million, $7.0 million to $19.6 million by areaOne trial, excluding failures, no inflation adjustment54

The AstraZeneca record: what the five Rs did, in the company's own account

AstraZeneca is the best-known public test of whether more discipline pays. After its 2011 revision around the five Rs, success from candidate drug nomination to Phase 3 completion rose from 4% in 2005-2010 to 19% in 2012-2016.55 Read this carefully. It is one company's own account, many things changed at once, and the authors say only that the framework is "beginning to have an impact". It is the most encouraging number available, and it does not isolate the effect of a target review.

One company's success rate rose from 4% to 19% after it adopted the five Rs

AstraZeneca, candidate drug nomination to Phase 3 completion. Company-reported; many changes happened together.

4%2005-2010
19%2012-2016

Source 55

Show the numbers
PeriodValue
2005-20104%
2012-201619%
What nobody publishes. We found no public figure for how long a target review takes, what it costs, how often grades differ between scientists, or how many failed programs a better review would have stopped. Treat any vendor's figure as a claim to test. Part C shows how to measure your own.
12 · AI and its limits

What AI changes in target review, and where a scientist still has to decide

In shortLanguage models help find, read, extract and re-check literature at a speed people cannot match. They can also invent references, miss what a table says, and sound confident about thin evidence. Keep every claim tied to its passage, separate writing from challenging, and leave the decision to a named scientist.

Target review suits this technology on the surface: lots of text, a fixed set of questions, and a need to look again when something new appears.

One published screening tool, tested by its developers on 10 Cochrane review libraries with over 58,000 references, reached a recall of 1.00 with a specificity of 0.61, meaning that it missed no relevant paper in those tests and still passed many irrelevant ones along for people to read.56 That is a sensible division of labor for early filtering, and an evaluation you would want repeated on your own subject.

Citations are where a general chatbot fails most visibly, so test that directly. Asked to write reviews in 2023, GPT-3.5 fabricated 55% of its citations and GPT-4 18%.57 A separate 2023 study of GPT-3.5 medical papers found 47% fabricated.58 The problem has shrunk and has not gone: in a test of ChatGPT-5 on orthopedic guidelines, run in early 2026, 7.13% of references were fabricated and only 49.34% were bibliographically accurate.59 The authors conclude that independent verification "remains necessary".

Fabricated references have fallen with each model and have not reached zero

Share of references that did not exist, asked of general chatbots with no source documents. Three separate studies with different subjects, so the comparison is rough.

GPT-3.5, 2023, review papers55%
GPT-3.5, 2023, medical papers47%
GPT-4, 2023, review papers18%
ChatGPT-5, 2026, orthopedic guidelines7.13%

Source 57 58 59

Show the numbers
ItemValue
GPT-3.5, 2023, review papers55%
GPT-3.5, 2023, medical papers47%
GPT-4, 2023, review papers18%
ChatGPT-5, 2026, orthopedic guidelines7.13%
In a target reviewGood use of AIStays with a scientist
ScopeDraft research questions from the templateThe modality, the bar for each grade, and what counts as independent
Find and readSearch many sources; pull each number with its passageWhich sources are allowed, and what the license permits
GradePropose a grade against the written bar, with reasonsThe final grade, and a written reason for any change
ChallengeFlag single-source claims, animal-only evidence, RNA without protein, stale dataAccept, reject, or ask for another look
Re-checkWatch for new studies and rivals; show what movedWhether the move stands
DecideNothing. It can assemble the recordAdvance, condition, hold or stop, and the signature

Three limits on AI that better models will not remove from target review

The record

It reads what was published

A tool inherits the publication bias and the gaps shown in sections 02 and 07. Silence in the literature can look like reassurance.

The lab

It cannot repeat an experiment

It can show that nobody has replicated a result. Someone still has to run the test that would settle it.

The call

It carries no responsibility

A go or no-go means accepting what remains unknown. That belongs to a person who can answer for it at the next review.

13 · How teams do it today

How discovery teams run a target review today: people, hand-offs and the reading weeks

In shortBy our account, one scientist does most of the reading, pulling in specialists for chemistry, safety and competitors. The result is a document or slide deck, signed by a therapeutic-area head and brought to a committee. There is no public benchmark for time. In our estimate most days go to reading and writing, and little goes to arguing about what the evidence means.

Who shapes a target decision, from the requesting scientist to the committee

TA

Therapeutic-area head

Owns the disease area's targets, reviews the assessment, and signs the recommendation.

Cares about: the grade, then the paper behind it.
CB

Target scientist or computational biologist

Requests the review, does much of the reading, and runs the analyses only internal data can answer.

Cares about: not reading for three weeks to repeat what someone found last year.
TS

Translational safety scientist

Judges what the target's biology could do in people, before any medicine exists.

Cares about: human findings seen first, without digging.
MC

Chemistry or biologics lead

Judges whether the planned modality is realistic, from what has been measured.

Cares about: being asked before the plan is fixed.
CI

Competitive intelligence lead

Keeps the rival list current. Passes patent concerns to counsel.

Cares about: the date on the list.
PC

Portfolio committee and its secretary

Compare targets and allocate the budget. The secretary builds the pack.

Cares about: the version that was true on the day they decided.
A target review takes four hand-offs from request to committee decision

A typical path, with illustrative timings; no public benchmark exists

  1. 1Request

    Target, disease and planned modality, in a form or an email.

    Target scientistDay 0
  2. 2Reading

    Papers, portals, internal omics, screens, competitor lists.

    One scientist, plus specialistsAbout 3 weeks
  3. 3Grading and writing

    Answers to the six questions, cited as well as time allows.

    Target scientistAbout 3 days
  4. 4Scientific review

    Comments, arguments, gaps, a second reader on weak spots.

    Therapeutic-area head; safety scientistDays to weeks
  5. 5Committee

    Compared with other targets. A decision and conditions.

    Portfolio committeeNext meeting

Illustrative · replace with your own numbers

Show the numbers
StepWhat happensWhoTime
RequestTarget, disease and planned modality, in a form or an email.Target scientistDay 0
ReadingPapers, portals, internal omics, screens, competitor lists.One scientist, plus specialistsAbout 3 weeks
Grading and writingAnswers to the six questions, cited as well as time allows.Target scientistAbout 3 days
Scientific reviewComments, arguments, gaps, a second reader on weak spots.Therapeutic-area head; safety scientistDays to weeks
CommitteeCompared with other targets. A decision and conditions.Portfolio committeeNext meeting
By our estimate, about 14 of 20 working days go to gathering evidence

Illustrative split of one target review by hand. No published figure exists: time five of your own.

Genetics and expressionBiology and tractabilitySafety, rivals, patentsChallenging weak evidenceScoping, writing, sign-off
One target, 20 working days5 days5 days4 days2 days4 days

Illustrative · replace with your own numbers

Show the numbers
Genetics and expressionBiology and tractabilitySafety, rivals, patentsChallenging weak evidenceScoping, writing, sign-off
One target, 20 working days5 days5 days4 days2 days4 days

In house, outsourced or software: three ways of producing a target review

In house

Your scientists, your template

The people closest to the data write it. Quality varies with who has time, and knowledge often leaves with the writer.

Outsourced

A research firm's dossier

Useful for small teams and for an outside view. It takes weeks, arrives as a static file, and cannot see your internal data unless you send it.

Portals and software

Public data with your own layer

Portals give free evidence with no grade for your decision. Some teams add literature tools or automation, with the rubric and the signature kept in house.

Part B · See it working

Botminds Drug Target Assessment at Northwind Bio: twelve targets, one evidence matrix, one signature

Part A described the work without naming a product. This part shows how Botminds does it, on a fictional portfolio. Every company, person, target code, study and figure on these screens is sample data.

14 · One target, start to finish

From a graded matrix to a conditional yes: how Dr. Maya Chen decides on NWT-31

In shortIt is Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at Northwind Bio. Dr. Maya Chen, Head of Immunology target discovery, has NWT-31 in ulcerative colitis to sign before the October 22 committee. AI agents researched it, graded it against her team's bar and challenged the result. She reads the evidence, decides each challenge, and signs with conditions.

One target review, from request to signature in about a week
  1. Sep 30Sam Patel requests it

    NWT-31 in ulcerative colitis, oral small molecule.

  2. Oct 2 to 4Six questions researched

    Genetics graded A. Safety flagged and graded C.

  3. Oct 4The critic challenges

    Seven challenges raised, five resolved.

  4. Oct 5Assembled and routed

    142 claims from 61 sources, to Dr. Chen.

  5. Oct 7She signs

    Advance with conditions.

Fictional example from this guide

Show the numbers
WhenWhat
Sep 30Sam Patel requests it
Oct 2 to 4Six questions researched
Oct 4The critic challenges
Oct 5Assembled and routed
Oct 7She signs
Oct 22Committee
1

Twelve targets graded on six questions, in one view

Targets run down the side, grouped by therapeutic area, with the six questions across. Each cell is a grade from A to D, with the overall grade and stage at the right. There are 53 grades and 851 cited claims behind them. A dark bar above the matrix shows the evidence watch and what it last found.

The first thing the eye finds is the pale C in the NWT-31 row, then the red D on a target already stopped.

The evidence matrix. Six questions across, twelve targets down, and the claims behind the selected grade on the right.
2

One click on the safety C shows why it is a C

The panel opens the claims behind the grade: 212 people with one faulty copy and no immune deficiency across 1,400 traits; two siblings with chronic fungal infection since childhood; mice that clear a fungal infection more slowly; low expression in heart, liver and kidney.

Each claim carries its evidence type, so a human case report never reads like a mouse model.

Behind this grade. The question, the summary, and four claims, each labeled with what kind of evidence it is.
3

Every claim opens the passage it came from

In the full assessment, section 5 of 6 asks the same question in words: what happens when the target is taken away? The grade, the agent's stated confidence of 81%, the summary and the key claims sit in the middle. On the right, each source shows the passage with the supporting words highlighted, and a link opens it in place.

The rail on the left shows the six grades and how far each is from settled.

One section of the assessment. Fictional sources, shown here to demonstrate the highlight, with no real paper behind them.
4

The critic argues the other side, and Dr. Chen decides

A separate agent reads each section as a skeptical committee member would. On safety it argues that two siblings are a small record, that 212 carriers are healthy, and that the risk looks dose-dependent. It proposes moving from C to B, with a fungal-infection study as a condition.

She can accept, keep the grade as it is, or ask the agent to look again. The critic never changes a grade itself. A resolved challenge sits beneath it, with its reason on the record.

The critic's challenges. One open, with its proposal and three choices; one resolved, with what was done and by whom.
5

Three targets compared on one rubric

For the committee she opens NWT-31 beside NWT-33 and NWT-35. Each has its shape on one radar and its grades in one table. NWT-31 is strongest on genetics and pathway biology, with safety to watch. NWT-33 leads on expression and tractability for its planned modality. NWT-35 leads on genetics.

Because all three used one bar, the argument in the room can be about the targets.

Compare targets. Up to four targets, one radar, one table, ready for the committee pack.
6

She signs with conditions, and the safety grade takes a second signature

She chooses Advance with conditions over the other three options. The open questions become the conditions: whether the closest family member matters in human heart cells, a freedom-to-operate opinion from counsel, a serum marker of pathway activity, and a rival's Phase 1 results. Two open challenges are recorded with her signature.

The meaning of the signature is printed on the screen: scientific approval of this assessment. Because safety is a C, Lena Ortiz co-signs after her.

Sign-off. Four recommendations, the conditions in plain words, the open challenges, and who co-signs.
15 · A hold wakes; a target is built

A held target gets new genetics, and a new target is researched while you watch

In shortThe same morning, a weekly re-check finds a new genome-wide study on a target held for weak genetics. Its grade moves from C to B, in view, and its owner is asked to confirm before the committee can use it. A new request goes from one line to a graded, challenged assessment for a scientist to review.

1

NWT-30 was held because nobody had replicated its genetics

On September 21, Dr. Aiko Tanaka signed NWT-30 in ALS as Hold for more evidence. Its genetics rested on one small study at p = 4 × 10⁻⁵, 800 times weaker than the genome-wide bar. Overall: B−.

The reason for the hold, on one line, with its source beside it.
2

New study, new citation, a grade moved in plain view

The watch reads 214 new papers and preprints. One fictional meta-analysis of 31,480 ALS cases and 118,930 controls replicates the region at p = 2.8 × 10⁻⁹, and the risk allele raises the target's expression in motor neurons. The genetics cell flips from C to B with a "was C" tag. The overall goes from B− to B, since 17 points became 18, and 18 ÷ 6 = 3.0.

It stays a B until fine-mapping is published. Dr. Tanaka confirms before any committee pack uses it, and a new open question is added.

A grade moves on new evidence. The change, the reason, the new citation and the request to confirm, together. The matrix also counts 852 claims now, one more.
214 new papers read, one study that matters, one grade moved

The fictional check of October 7

New papers and preprints read214
New studies on a tracked target1
Grades moved, awaiting the owner1

Fictional example from this guide

Show the numbers
StageCount
New papers and preprints read214
New studies on a tracked target1
Grades moved, awaiting the owner1
3

Sam Patel types one line: NWT-44 in atopic dermatitis

A computational biologist asks for an assessment for the November 19 committee. The planner splits the template into 6 sections and 38 research questions, sets the bar for each grade, and never grades anything itself.

A new request, as one line: a target and a disease.
4

Six agents research in parallel, and the scorecard fills as grades land

Each agent has its own lane, showing what it reads and how many sources and claims it has. Genetics, expression, biology, tractability, safety and competition run at once. A scientist can watch or go to lunch.

The agents at work. Six lanes, the critic and the assembler waiting, and an empty scorecard.
5

Built: 128 claims, 54 sources, a B+, and a problem named

Expression and competition come back A. Tractability comes back C, since the evidence for the planned modality is thin. The critic raises 6 challenges, resolves 5 with the agents and leaves 1 for the owner. The assembler routes the result to Dr. Chen. That B+ is 19 points over six questions.

A person still has to read it. Agent time ran to minutes; the days that follow belong to scientists.

Assessment built, with each agent's result, the critic's count and the overall grade.
16 · Every other screen

The target list, the full assessment, the review record, the dashboard and your rules

In shortBeyond the matrix, each screen answers one question. Which targets need me? What does the whole document say? Who did what, and when? Where do the conditions stand? Where does the evidence come from? And what is your bar? Each figure here comes from the sample portfolio.

Every target. A strip of grades per target, its stage, owner and committee date, filterable by area and by safety C or D.
Genetics, graded A. The direction is stated, and a non-significant burden test counts only as support.
Competition and patents. Rivals by phase with their dates. The agent records what it found, and freedom to operate goes to counsel.
The whole assessment. The scorecard in one line per question, the recommendation, then each section with numbered citations.
Open questions. Each with an owner and a date. At sign-off they become conditions.
The review record. Every action by people and agents, newest first, next to the sign-off status.
A stopped target. NWT-25 carries a D on safety, so its overall is held at C and it was stopped, co-signed and recorded.
The dashboard. The "estimated 4 weeks by hand" line is the solution's own estimate. No public benchmark exists.
What the critic challenged. The commonest challenge per question, from "direction of effect not stated" to "RNA only, no protein".
Your template. Six required sections, plus optional biomarkers and clinical precedent.
Your bar and your sources. What an A needs, how strict the critic is, who co-signs, and which sources may be read.

What the sample dashboard shows about grades and evidence mix

Safety carries the most C and D grades on the sample dashboard

Grades by question across 9 assessments signed in the last 30 days of the fictional portfolio

ABCD
Genetics333
Expression351
Pathway biology243
Tractability441
Safety531
Competition333

Fictional example from this guide

Show the numbers
ABCD
Genetics3330
Expression3510
Pathway biology2430
Tractability4410
Safety0531
Competition3330
Literature supplies 41% of cited claims, internal data 22%

Where the fictional portfolio's cited claims came from, last 30 days

Literature: 41%Internal omics and screens: 22%Public genetics and atlases: 18%Competitor databases: 11%Patents: 8%
1,284claims
  • Literature41%
  • Internal omics and screens22%
  • Public genetics and atlases18%
  • Competitor databases11%
  • Patents8%

Fictional example from this guide

Show the numbers
PartValue
Literature41%
Internal omics and screens22%
Public genetics and atlases18%
Competitor databases11%
Patents8%
On the sample's 12-month view, days to a signed assessment fall from 21 to 5.1

Median days, request to signature, in the fictional portfolio. The sample's own story; measure yours.

01020305.1
NovJanMarMayJulSep

Fictional example from this guide

Show the numbers
Days
Nov21
Dec20
Jan22
Feb19
Mar20
Apr14
May10.5
Jun8.6
Jul7.8
Aug6.4
Sep5.4
Oct5.1

Design targets for a Botminds target assessment deployment

5.1 days

from request to a signed assessment, median. The solution's estimate by hand is about four weeks.

Design target, to be measured in your deployment
100%

of claims carry their source passage, one click from the grade.

Design target
65%

of the critic's challenges accepted by reviewers before signing, a measure that the challenges are useful.

Design target
17 · Who researches, who signs

Nine agents, three human signatures: what goes into a target assessment and what comes out

In shortOne agent plans, six research, one challenges and one assembles. None of them decides. The therapeutic-area lead signs, a translational safety scientist co-signs a weak safety grade, and the owner confirms any grade that new evidence moved. The assessment says nothing on how a medicine should be designed or made.

Assessment planner

Splits a request into template sections and about 40 research questions, assigns each to a specialist, and sets the evidence that would earn each grade.

Never grades a section. The modality must be stated first.

Genetics evidence agent

Finds published genetic studies, fine-mapping and colocalization. Reports effect size, p-value and the number of people studied, and re-grades when a new study lands.

Never states a genetic claim without its direction of effect.

Expression agent

Places the target in tissues and cell types, disease against healthy, from your omics and public atlases. Always reports heart, liver, kidney and brain.

Never mixes RNA and protein evidence.

Pathway biology agent

Gathers mechanism, gene knockdown and knockout work and animal models, with the model, effect size and number of donors or animals.

Never hides that evidence is animal-only or from one laboratory.

Tractability agent

Summarizes published and internal evidence on whether the planned modality could reach the target.

Never grades against another modality. Design decisions stay with your specialists.

Safety liability agent

Asks what happens when the target is taken away: human carriers, knockouts and essential tissues.

Never lowers a liability without a cited source. Any human finding is flagged first.

Competition & IP agent

Lists rival programs by target, modality and phase, checks trial registries and congress abstracts, and summarizes the patent landscape.

Never gives a legal opinion. Freedom to operate goes to counsel.

Critic

Challenges single-source claims, animal-only evidence, RNA without protein, stale data and wrong direction of effect, and proposes changes.

Never changes a grade. It proposes, and a person decides.

Assessment assembler

Writes the assessment, scorecard, open questions and references in your template, and routes them to the right reviewer.

Never includes a claim with no citation.

Who signs a target assessment, and what each signature means

DecisionWhoThe rule
The assessmentTherapeutic-area lead (Dr. Maya Chen, Dr. Jonas Harbeck, Dr. Aiko Tanaka in the sample)Signs with the meaning "scientific approval of this assessment" and one of four recommendations
A safety C or DTranslational safety scientist (Lena Ortiz)Co-signs after the lead, so two people approve the weakest grades (the four-eyes rule)
A critic challengeThe target's ownerAccept, keep as is, or ask the agent to look again. Open challenges are recorded as conditions
A grade changed by a personThe owner or leadNeeds a written reason, kept on the review record and shown to the committee
A grade moved by new evidenceThe ownerShown as "was C" with the new citation; counts for committee packs once the owner confirms
A signed versionThe review recordStays as signed. Every action by people and agents is kept

Target assessments are research records, marked as such. These controls support your compliance if a finding later feeds regulated work; they make no one compliant by themselves. On credentials, Botminds is SOC 2 Type II audited, with information security managed to ISO 27001.

From literature and your own screens to a signed target assessment

Evidence you already read

  • Licensed literature and preprints, labeled
  • Public genetics and target-disease portals
  • Expression atlases
  • Competitor pipeline database
  • Patent landscape

From you

  • Internal omics and screening reports
  • Your assessment template
  • Your grading bar and critic strictness
  • Who signs and who co-signs
  • A few past target reviews
Agents plan, research, challenge and assemble Each target, under your rules, re-checked weekly once signed
The therapeutic-area lead decides and signs
Every grade opens its passages

Outputs

  • An evidence matrix of the portfolio, graded A to D
  • A target assessment with cited claims and passages
  • Critic challenges and open questions
  • Grade moves when new evidence lands
  • A signed review record for the committee
  • Side-by-side comparison for the pack

Connecting literature licenses, omics stores and competitor databases

SystemWhat moves
Licensed literature indexArticle text where your license allows; licensed content stays inside the assessment, and is never exported in full
Public genetics and expression portalsGenome-wide studies, fine-mapping, colocalization and tissue data, with the access date on each
Internal omics and screening storesBulk and single-cell results and screening reports, under your access rules
Competitor pipeline databaseA regular extract by target, modality and phase; flagged when older than your limit
Patent landscape servicePatent families and claims, summarized for counsel
Document store and committee toolsSigned assessments and committee packs

Roles, audit trail and scale for discovery organizations

Roles separate who may request, edit, sign, co-sign and read. Every change to the template, the bar or the sources is recorded. Each therapeutic area can run its own targets under a shared rubric, and committee secretaries build packs from signed versions. Your own data stays under your access rules, and agents read only the sources you switch on.

Part C · Are you ready to automate?

Should your discovery team automate target reviews?

Written to you, the person who pays for this work or answers for its quality. What weak reviews cost, how to find your own numbers, what a return might look like, and how to test any tool, ours included, before you trust it.

18 · What weak reviews cost

What a slow or weak target review costs your discovery team

In shortThe time is modest and visible. The expensive errors are later and hard to count: a trial on a target that was never tested fairly, a hold nobody reopened, a committee hour spent re-arguing a paper. We found no study that isolates these costs, so measure your own in a week before you believe anyone's figure.

$24K

of scientist time, with benefits and overhead, for one target review by hand: 160 hours at $150.

Our arithmetic; both inputs are illustrative
$13.35M

average for one Phase 2 trial, in a federal study, with no inflation adjustment.

ASPE, 201454
65%

of projects "failed during phase II due to lack of efficacy", in AstraZeneca's review of 142 projects.

A trade report, which does not say 65% of which group; we did not read the paper51
One average Phase 2 trial costs about as much as 556 target reviews

A review at 160 hours and $150 an hour, an assumption, against ASPE's 2014 average for a Phase 2 trial. A trial tests far more than a target, so read this as scale.

One Phase 2 trial, average$13.3M
One target review by hand$24K

Illustrative · replace with your own numbers

Show the numbers
ItemValue
One Phase 2 trial, average$13.3M
One target review by hand$24K

That ratio shows scale: review time is cheap against what depends on it, so a better review needs to change few decisions to pay for itself. It is also easy to misuse. We found no test of whether a review would have prevented any given failure.

Auditing your last ten target reviews to find your own numbers

CostWhere it hidesHow to find your number in a week
Hours per reviewSpread across scientists and specialists, with no time codeAsk the authors of the last five to estimate days by section, then take the median
Elapsed time, request to signatureWaiting for comments and for the next committeeCompare request and sign dates on ten reviews
Claims you cannot traceNumbers copied from reviews or slides, with no pageSample 30 claims from three reviews and time how long each takes to confirm at its source
Grades that differEach area's private standardHave two scientists grade the same target separately, then count disagreements
Holds nobody reopenedA document in a folderList every hold from two years. Who owns each? When was it last checked?
Reasons visible at the timeProgram closure reportsFor recent stopped programs, ask whether the reason stood in the literature on the day of the review

Costs of a weak target review that no calculator captures

The committee's hourSenior people re-reading a paper in the meeting, when they could be weighing one target against another.
The scientist who leavesThe reasoning behind a grade goes with them, unless it was written next to the evidence.
The rival who got there firstA held target proved right elsewhere, while your review waited for someone to read the next study.
The trust in your gradesOne claim that collapses in the meeting makes people doubt all the others.
The partner's questionA licensing partner asks why you chose this target, and the answer takes a week to rebuild.
19 · Your return

Five levers on target review value, and a calculator for your own portfolio

In shortScientist hours are the part you can count, and they may pay for a tool alone at enough volume. Avoided mistakes could be worth far more and cannot be proven in advance, so keep them in a separate line and be skeptical of anyone who adds them up for you.

Reading time

Evidence arrives gathered

Scientists check and argue, and do less of the first search and extraction.

reviews × (hours by hand − hours with automation) × hourly cost
Traceability

Each claim opens its passage

Reviewers stop re-deriving numbers, and committees stop re-arguing them.

minutes to confirm a claim × claims checked, before and after
Consistency

One bar across areas

Three targets can be compared with no argument about whose standard applied.

grade disagreements ÷ grades, between two independent scientists
Freshness

Holds wake up

New evidence reaches the owner of a target nobody is reading about this month.

days from a study's publication to the owner's decision
Avoided error

A weak target stops earlier

Largest in size and hardest to prove. Count it only with your own closure reports.

trials not started × average trial cost

Replace every default with your own. Only the trial cost has a published source. No public benchmark exists for the rest.

Your volume
Time
Avoided error
The tool
Illustrative yearly value
Review time today, valued$0
Time released, valued$0
Trial money not spent, valued$0
After your yearly cost$0
Hours released for other work0
Time alone, after your yearly cost$0

Formulas, per year:
Time today = reviews × hours by hand × hourly cost
Time released = reviews × (hours by hand − people's hours) × hourly cost
Trial money = trials not started × cost of a trial
After cost = time released + trial money − yearly cost
Hours released = reviews × (hours by hand − people's hours)
Time alone = time released − yearly cost

The 160 hours is the solution's own estimate of 20 working days by hand, at 8 hours, and no public figure backs it. The 41 hours treats the solution's 5.1-day design target as full days of people's time, which is cautious. The trial cost is ASPE's 2014 average for one Phase 2 trial, unadjusted.54 A default of 0.1 means one trial every ten years, chosen so it does not swamp the sum. Look at "Time alone" first, and treat the trial line as a question to test with your own closure reports.

People's time falls least where judgment is needed: challenge time stays at 2 days

The solution's own estimated split for one target, in working days. A design goal, to be measured on your work; no public benchmark.

By handWith automation
Scoping the questions and the bar1 day0.1 days
Genetics and expression5 days0.5 days
Biology and tractability5 days0.5 days
Safety, rivals and patents4 days0.5 days
Challenging weak evidence2 days2 days
Writing, review and sign-off3 days1.5 days

Illustrative · replace with your own numbers

Show the numbers
By handWith automation
Scoping the questions and the bar1 day0.1 days
Genetics and expression5 days0.5 days
Biology and tractability5 days0.5 days
Safety, rivals and patents4 days0.5 days
Challenging weak evidence2 days2 days
Writing, review and sign-off3 days1.5 days

Look for the shape in any vendor's numbers, including that one. If challenge and review time also fall to nothing, someone has probably skipped them.

20 · Readiness check

Is your discovery team ready to automate target reviews? Eight questions and a score

In shortScore each question 0, 1 or 2. Write down your rubric, your owner and your baseline first. Without them, a tool only makes your current habits faster.

Answer honestly; the last question is for reflection. The meter adds up your score as you go, and each question says why it matters and what a strong answer sounds like. The figures in those answers are examples.

1
Written bar

Is what earns each grade written down, per question, before anyone reads the evidence?

Why it mattersA tool can only apply a bar that exists. Otherwise it invents one, and your scientists will not trust it.
A strong answer"Yes, version 3, dated in March. An A needs two independent human sources, and independent is defined."
2
Volume

How many target reviews does your team produce in a year?

Why it mattersVolume decides whether hours alone pay. Below a handful a year, the case rests on quality and on holds.
A strong answer"About 30 last year, across three therapeutic areas, plus 20 waiting."
3
Baseline

Do you know how long a review takes today, in hours and in calendar days?

Why it mattersNo public benchmark exists. Your baseline is the only way to show that anything improved.
A strong answer"Median 18 working days by self-report on our last ten, and 31 calendar days to signature."
4
Owner

Does one named person sign each decision, with a stated meaning?

Why it mattersAutomation needs someone who answers for the result. A committee is too many people to accept or reject a challenge, and a tool must not do it.
A strong answer"The therapeutic-area head signs, meaning scientific approval, and the safety scientist co-signs a C or D."
5
Sources

Do you know which sources may be read, under what license?

Why it mattersPublisher contracts can limit what a tool may store and quote, and that often surfaces late in a project.
A strong answer"Library has confirmed our text and data mining rights, and we know which internal stores are allowed."
6
Internal data

Can a reviewer find your own omics, screens and past reviews without asking a colleague?

Why it mattersInternal data is the part no portal can give you, and it often sets expression and biology grades.
A strong answer"Omics and screening reports are in two indexed stores. Past reviews are in one folder, with a named owner."
7
Ground truth

Do you have past reviews your scientists trust, to test a tool against?

Why it mattersWithout them, an evaluation becomes an opinion about prose. With them, you can compare claims, grades and misses.
A strong answer"Ten recent reviews, including two we now think were wrong, plus a scientist ready to mark the results."
8
Follow-through

When a decision carries conditions, does anyone track them?

Why it mattersA condition with no owner and no date is a sentence in a file. A watch on new evidence only helps if someone responds.
A strong answer"Every condition has a named owner and a date, and the secretary reports them at each committee."
9
For reflection

Pick a target you held two years ago. Could you say within a minute why, and whether anything published since would change that?

Why it mattersYour answer lists the gaps: the reasoning, the owner, the trigger and the watch. Each gap is a candidate job for software, or for a better habit.
A strong answerA short, specific list, for example: "We could find the document. Nobody could say what would reopen it, and nobody has looked since."

What your target review readiness score means

0–6

Explore

Write your grading bar, time five reviews, and name who signs. All three help with or without a tool.

7–11

Ready to pilot

Rebuild a few past reviews and have your scientists mark every claim. Measure before you decide.

12–16

Ready to implement

Set up for your next committee cycle: your rubric, your sources, your signers, with a live evidence watch on held targets.

21 · Questions for any vendor

What to ask a target assessment vendor about citations, grades and who decides

In shortAsk every vendor and research firm the same questions, us included. Good answers can be shown on your own target in a meeting. Be wary of accuracy claims with no test set behind them, and of any tool whose grade can change with no human on the record.

AskA good answerA warning sign
Citations and evidence
Open any claim. Show me the passage it came from.One click to the highlighted passage, table or figure, in a source I can openA reference list at the end, or a link to a paper's first page
How do you stop an invented reference reaching the page?Claims are drawn only from retrieved documents; a claim with no passage is held out. Show the test"Our model does not hallucinate"
How do you treat a retracted paper, a preprint or a study from one lab?Each is labeled, and the rule is one I can setAll sources treated alike
Grades
Whose grading bar is it?Yours, versioned, with each change loggedA proprietary score you cannot inspect
If two papers come from one biobank, how many sources is that?One, and show how you detect it, and where you still fall short"We count citations"
Can the tool change a grade by itself?It proposes, a named person decides, and the reason is on the recordA silent update to a signed review
Scope and honesty
What evidence do you have that this improves decisions?Time and traceability measured on real work; plain words on what cannot yet be shownA claim of higher clinical success
Does it give patent or legal opinions?No. It records what it found and passes the question to counselA freedom-to-operate verdict
What will it refuse to do?A clear answer you can test, including how it handles requests beyond the review's scope"Nothing"
Your data
Where do our internal data and queries go? Do they train any model?A written answer in the contract: your own environment, no training, retention you set"It's in our privacy policy"
How do you respect our journal licenses?Only sources you switch on, with no full-text export of licensed contentScraping anything reachable
What security credentials do you hold?Named, current, with the audit report on request. Ours: SOC 2 Type II audited, information security managed to ISO 27001"GxP certified": no such certificate exists for a product
22 · How to start

Rebuild past target reviews first: an eight-week pilot your scientists can mark

In shortStart with targets you have already decided, so nothing live is at risk. Keep your own review as the answer key, plant a few errors, and have scientists mark each claim. Then run one live target through a real committee cycle, and decide on evidence by week eight.

  1. Write the bar and clear the sources with library and legal.
  2. Pick eight past reviews, including two your scientists now believe were wrong, and record how long each took.
  3. Plant checks: a retracted paper, a single-laboratory claim, two papers on one group of people. Keep the key outside the system.
  4. Rebuild blind, then have two scientists mark every claim for accuracy and every grade for agreement.
  5. Run one live target through your next committee cycle, with your people signing, and decide.
Eight weeks ends with a decision before your next committee cycle
Your teamVendor
Write the bar; clear sources; baseline
Load template, sources and signers
Rebuild eight past reviews
Mark every claim and grade
One live target, real committee
Measure and decide
Week 02468

Illustrative · replace with your own numbers

Show the numbers
ActivityFromTo
Write the bar; clear sources; baseline02
Load template, sources and signers13
Rebuild eight past reviews24
Mark every claim and grade36
One live target, real committee58
Measure and decide78

What to measure when you test a target assessment tool

MeasureHowA sensible bar to set beforehand
Claim accuracyOpen a sample of claims; does the passage say that?Every claim opens; errors are named and rare
What it missedCompare with the claims your scientists think matter mostNo high-importance claim missed without a flag
Grade agreementTool against two scientists, and the scientists against each otherThe tool's disagreement stays within theirs
Planted checks foundCount against your keyAll flagged, or a reason for each miss
People's timeHours by role, before and afterReading falls; challenge and judgment do not
Would you sign it?Ask your therapeutic-area headYes, with reasons
The full working-session questions: 12 questions in four groups

Bring a therapeutic-area head, a computational biologist, a safety scientist, a competitive intelligence lead, library or legal, and security.

A

Your bar for each grade and each signature

A1

What earns an A on each question? What does independent mean?

A2

Which grades need a second signature, and who gives it?

A3

What does a signature mean: scientific approval, or a budget commitment?

B

The evidence your scientists are allowed to read

B1

Which journals, portals and internal stores count? Do preprints count, and how are they labeled?

B2

What do your publisher licenses permit a tool to store and quote?

B3

Who owns the competitor list, and how old may it get?

C

Decisions that keep moving after the signature

C1

What should reopen a hold? Who is told?

C2

When new evidence moves a grade, does it count before the owner confirms?

C3

Which version does a committee read: the one signed, or the one current?

D

Boundaries a target review tool must respect

D1

What must the tool never say or do? Who reviews those limits?

D2

Could these reviews ever feed a filing? If so, what extra records would you keep?

D3

Which questions go to patent counsel, and how?

23 · Questions people ask

What people ask about drug target assessment and validation

In shortThe questions people search about target assessment, each answered on its own.

What is drug target assessment?

Drug target assessment is the review scientists carry out before a discovery program starts, to judge whether a protein deserves the investment. It answers questions on human genetics, expression, pathway biology, tractability, what happens when the target is taken away, and competition. Each answer is graded for strength of evidence, and a named scientist signs a recommendation for a portfolio committee.

What is target prioritization in drug discovery?

Target prioritization means ranking candidate targets against each other, so the budget goes to the strongest. Teams grade each target on the same questions against the same written bar, and a portfolio committee compares the results. Public portals such as the Open Targets Platform assist "drug target identification and prioritisation using publicly available data", though the grade for a specific decision stays with the company's scientists.22

What is the difference between target identification and target validation?

Target identification produces a candidate, from a genetic study, a screen or a paper. Target validation tests whether changing that protein changes the disease; the GOT-IT recommendations say it "usually describes the technical evaluation of whether a target has a key role in a disease process". Assessment is wider, adding questions a company must answer before paying, such as whether the planned kind of medicine can reach the target and who else is working on it.2

What makes a good drug target?

No single property is sufficient. Strong human genetic evidence is the closest thing to a general predictor, with an estimated 2.6 times higher probability of success across programs, though that figure ignores the direction of effect, so a reviewer has to check direction separately.3 A good target also sits in the cells that drive the disease, changes the disease when altered in human systems, suits the planned modality, and carries an acceptable risk when taken away.

How much does human genetic evidence improve the odds of a drug target?

A 2024 study in Nature estimated that the probability of success for mechanisms with genetic support is 2.6 times greater than for those without, across therapy areas and phases.3 The figure varies by therapy area and rises with confidence in the causal gene. It describes groups of programs, and it does not consider the direction of effect, so it cannot promise success for any one target.

Why do most drugs fail in clinical trials?

About 10% of clinical programs eventually reach approval, by one estimate.3 Lack of efficacy is the major cause of failure in clinical phases, by a 2019 modeling study.43 A trade report of AstraZeneca's review of 142 projects says 65% of projects "failed during phase II due to lack of efficacy", in many cases because of a poor understanding of the target; it does not say 65% of which group, and we did not read the paper itself.51

How long does a drug target assessment take?

We found no public benchmark. The fictional case in this guide assumes about four weeks of a scientist's reading for one target. That is the solution's own estimate, and no published study backs it. To measure your own, ask the authors of your last five reviews how many days each took, and compare request and signature dates on ten.

Does FDA regulate target selection or AI used in drug discovery?

We found no FDA rule or filing step that reviews the choice of a target as such. FDA's January 2025 draft guidance on AI states that it does not address AI models used in drug discovery.8 EMA's reflection paper calls discovery potentially low regulatory impact, unless results contribute to evidence presented for regulatory review, in which case non-clinical principles should be followed.7

Is a target assessment a GxP record?

Usually no. It is research, and FDA's good laboratory practice rule leaves out basic exploratory studies.6 Named signatures and audit trails are still worth keeping, because they make decisions defensible and support your compliance if a finding later feeds regulated work. No tool or review can be certified as compliant.

Can AI do a target assessment by itself?

AI can find, read and extract evidence and flag weak claims, and it can re-check sources on a schedule. It cannot replicate an experiment or carry responsibility for a decision. General chatbots have also been shown to invent references: 7.13% in a 2026 test of ChatGPT-5.59 Tie every claim to its passage, and leave the decision to a named scientist.

What is the GOT-IT framework?

GOT-IT stands for Guidelines On Target Assessment for Innovative Therapeutics. Funded by Germany's Federal Ministry of Education and Research and published in Nature Reviews Drug Discovery, it gives academic scientists guiding questions across target-disease linkage, safety aspects, microbial targets, strategic issues and technical feasibility.2 It offers structure and says that scientists decide.

What is the 5R framework in drug discovery?

The 5Rs are AstraZeneca's five technical determinants of project success: the right target, right patient, right tissue, right safety and right commercial potential, with the right culture as a sixth factor.5 The company reported that success from candidate nomination to Phase 3 completion rose from 4% in 2005-2010 to 19% in 2012-2016, though many changes happened together.55

How reliable is published research on drug targets?

Reliability varies, so a reviewer should weigh who found a result and how. In one large replication effort, 40% of positive effects in preclinical cancer biology replicated on most tests, and effects came out 85% smaller at the median.4 The authors stress that a failed replication does not disprove a finding, though it does call for further investigation.

24 · One-page summary

Drug target assessment on one page: the method, the November 2026 rules, readiness and terms

Print this page

In shortThe whole guide on one screen: the method, the rules as of November 2026, the readiness scale and the terms.

The method
  1. State the target, the disease and the planned modality.
  2. Write the bar for each grade before anyone reads, and define independent.
  3. Answer six questions: genetics, expression, biology, tractability, safety, competition.
  4. Tie every claim to its passage. Label RNA, protein, animal, single-laboratory and preprint evidence.
  5. State the direction of effect for each genetic claim.
  6. Have someone argue the other side, and record the answer.
  7. Read six grades; an overall grade only sorts a list.
  8. A named scientist signs: advance, advance with conditions, hold or stop. A weak safety grade takes a second signature.
  9. Give each condition an owner and a date. Give each hold a trigger.
  10. Keep signed versions as signed, and re-check for new evidence.

Readiness: score 0–2 on eight questions: 0–6 explore, 7–11 pilot, 12–16 implement.

As of November 2026: FDA's AI draft does not address discovery. EMA says discovery can be low impact unless results feed a filing. The EU AI Act excludes systems built solely for research, and the AI Omnibus is in force. Draft EU GMP Annex 22 concerns manufacturing and stays a draft. FDA's draft on primate testing stays a draft.

14 terms
Target
The molecule a medicine acts on, usually a protein.
Modality
The kind of medicine, such as a small molecule or an antibody.
Target validation
Testing whether a target has a key role in a disease.
Tractability
Whether the planned modality could plausibly reach a target.
Loss of function
A variant that leaves a protein weaker or absent.
Direction of effect
Whether less or more of a protein protects.
Genome-wide study (GWAS)
A scan of genetic variants across many people, for one trait.
Odds ratio
Odds of disease in carriers against non-carriers; below 1 protects.
Fine-mapping
Estimating which variant in a region is the causal one.
Colocalization
A test of whether two genetic signals share one cause.
Mendelian randomization
Using genes as a natural experiment on cause and effect.
Omics
Large measurements of RNA, proteins and the like in a sample.
Knockout
A cell or animal with a gene removed; the human version is natural.
Portfolio committee
The group that compares targets and allocates the budget.
25 · Sources

Sources

Accessed November 2026. Regulatory status statements are as of November 2026. Journal papers marked PubMed were read as their published abstracts.

  1. Hughes JP et al., "Principles of early drug discovery", British Journal of Pharmacology 162:1239-1249, 2011 (PubMed). pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
  2. Emmerich CH et al., "Improving target assessment in biomedical research: the GOT-IT recommendations", Nature Reviews Drug Discovery 20:64-81, 2021 (published November 16, 2020). pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
  3. Minikel EV et al., "Refining the impact of genetic evidence on clinical success", Nature 629:624-629, 2024. pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
  4. Errington TM et al., "Investigating the replicability of preclinical cancer biology", eLife 10:e71601, 2021 (PubMed). pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
  5. Cook D et al., "Lessons learned from the fate of AstraZeneca's drug pipeline: a five-dimensional framework", Nature Reviews Drug Discovery 13:419-431, 2014 (PubMed). pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
  6. 21 CFR 58.3(d), definition of nonclinical laboratory study, 2025 edition. govinfo.gov
  7. EMA, "Reflection paper on the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the medicinal product lifecycle", EMA/CHMP/CVMP/83833/2023, September 9, 2024, section 2.3.1. ema.europa.eu
  8. FDA, "Considerations for the Use of Artificial Intelligence To Support Regulatory Decision-Making for Drug and Biological Products", draft guidance, notice 2024-31542, Federal Register, January 7, 2025. govinfo.gov
  9. FDA, "FDA Announces Plan to Phase Out Animal Testing Requirement for Monoclonal Antibodies and Other Drugs", April 10, 2025. fda.gov
  10. FDA, "FDA Releases Draft Guidance on Reducing Testing on Non-Human Primates for Monoclonal Antibodies", December 2, 2025. fda.gov
  11. EMA, "EMA and FDA set common principles for AI in medicine development", January 14, 2026. ema.europa.eu
  12. Commission, "AI Act" regulatory framework page, read November 3, 2026: AI Omnibus, Regulation (EU) 2026/1744, in force July 27, 2026; Annex III to December 2, 2027; Annex I to August 2, 2028. digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu
  13. FDA, "Nonclinical Testing Terminology", direct final rule, Docket FDA-2026-N-5347, FR Doc. 2026-19350, scheduled for publication September 22, 2026, and FDA press release of September 21, 2026. fda.gov
  14. Regulation (EU) 2024/1689, the AI Act, Article 2(6) and recital 25, Official Journal text. publications.europa.eu
  15. European Commission and PIC/S, draft EU GMP Annex 22, consultation July 7 to October 7, 2025; EudraLex Volume 4 lists no Annex 22 on November 3, 2026. picscheme.org
  16. Skrivankova VW et al., "Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology Using Mendelian Randomization: The STROBE-MR Statement", JAMA 326:1614-1621, 2021 (PubMed). pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
  17. Guyatt GH et al., "GRADE: an emerging consensus on rating quality of evidence and strength of recommendations", BMJ 336:924-926, 2008. pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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Next step

See it on your own targets.

Explore the solution, or bring two past target reviews and your grading rules, and we will rebuild them with you, every grade opening at its source passage, for your scientists to judge.

botminds.ai The complete guide to drug target assessment · November 2026. Northwind Bio, Dorncliffe Pharma, Torvane Bio, Aldenmoor University, Varnholt Oncology, Celvara Bio, Halvern Therapeutics, every target code (NWT-25 to NWT-46), program code, sample study, person and figure in the example and the screens are fictional. Real proteins named in Part A appear only as published evidence, with their sources. Regulatory status is as of November 2026; check the sources before relying on it. This guide is general information. Scientists make target decisions, and patent questions belong with counsel.