A bank that makes many loans on office buildings, apartments, shops, warehouses and building sites has two questions to answer for its board and its examiners. How much of that lending does it hold compared with its capital? And how much of the capital would be left if rents fell, values dropped and loans had to be refinanced at higher rates? Concentration measurement answers the first; stress testing answers the second.
This guide is for anyone who builds, reviews, signs or pays for that work: CRE portfolio managers and credit risk analysts, chief credit and chief risk officers, board risk committee members, loan review, internal audit, and the leaders deciding whether to automate it. No background needed.
Imagine you are the commercial real estate portfolio manager at a community bank in Columbus, Ohio. It is Friday, October 9, 2026. Your bank holds 486 CRE loans worth $1,320.3 million against $412.6 million of capital, so its CRE book is 320.0% of capital. (Since 2020 supervisors measure capital for this test as tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses.) The board's own limit is 350%. Office loans are 48.1% of capital against an office limit of 50%.
The board risk committee meets on Thursday, October 22, and this morning's market data says downtown Columbus office capitalization rates, the yield buyers demand, rose 40 basis points (0.40 percentage points) in a month. A higher cap rate means a lower value for the same rent.
One loan stands out. Larch Street Tower, a 14-floor office building, carries an $18.4 million loan fixed at 4.15% that matures in June 2027. The building is 71% leased, and the lease of its largest tenant, a law firm paying 21% of the rent, ends in March 2027.
Today
NOI (rent less costs)
$1.74M
Debt service, 4.15%
$1.18M
Coverage
1.47x
Value
$24.0M
Loan to value
77%
June 2027 · severe case
NOI, −22%
$1.36M
Debt service, 8.75%
$1.82M
Coverage
0.74x
Value, −35%
$15.6M
Loan to value
118%
1.47x and 77% today0.74x and 118% at refinancea projected loss of $5.3 million on one loan.
A once-a-year spreadsheet that applies one loss rate to all office loans would put a number on the office book. It could not say that this loan's refinance date and its biggest lease expiry are three months apart, or that the severe case's losses, $46.2 million across 79 loans, would shrink capital enough to leave office loans at 54.2% of it, past the board's 50% limit.
A loan-by-loan stress test, run often, finds the building that would break the limit while there is still time to order a new appraisal and start the refinance conversation.
How banks measure CRE concentration and stress test the book, and what supervisors expect in 2026
The three supervisory tests and the arithmetic behind them, the denominator that changed in 2020, how one loan is stressed and how 486 loans add up, the rules as of October 2026, the failure record behind them, and where the risk sits today. Nothing here is about a product. If you are new to commercial real estate credit, start here.
01 · In plain words
Why CRE loans go bad together, and the concentration and stress tests regulators ask for
Commercial real estate lending, CRE for short, means loans that are repaid from a property: the rent an office building collects, the sale of the homes a builder puts up, the refinancing of an apartment complex when its loan comes due. Banks like this lending because the buildings are local, the borrowers are known and the loans are large. Community banks hold far more of it, compared with their size, than the biggest banks do. At the end of 2024 they held 15% of the banking industry's loans and 29% of its CRE loans.1
The trouble is that all of those loans tend to go wrong at the same time. When a regional economy turns, office tenants leave, rents fall, builders cannot sell, and the price buyers will pay for every kind of building drops together. A bank with a large share of its capital in CRE can lose a lot of that capital in one downturn.
That is what happened between 2008 and 2011, when 414 banks failed. In the ten states with the most failures, the Government Accountability Office found the failures of small banks "largely driven by credit losses on commercial real estate (CRE) loans".2
So since December 2006 the federal bank regulators have asked banks to watch two things.3 The first is concentration: how big the CRE book is compared with the bank's capital. A construction book at 100% of capital, or a total CRE book at 300% of capital that has grown by half in three years, tells an examiner to look harder. The board sets its own limits on top of those markers, often by property type: so much office, so much hotel, so much construction.
The second is stress testing: working out what a bad but plausible market would do to the loans, the losses and the capital, and then what the concentration ratios would look like after those losses.
Neither job is hard arithmetic. The hard part is the data. The loan system knows each loan's balance, rate and maturity. It usually does not know what each building earns this year, how full it is, when its biggest lease ends or what it is worth now. Those facts live in rent rolls, operating statements and appraisals in credit files. Collecting them for hundreds of properties is why many banks build the full stress test once a year, and why the board's "what if" questions usually wait until the next one.
The life of a CRE book's risk report, in five steps
Loans are made and bookedEach loan gets a line on the call report, the quarterly financial report every bank files with its regulators, plus a property type and a market. Ashgrove has 486 CRE loans worth $1,320.3 million.
The month or quarter closesThe loan tape and the capital figures are final. Ashgrove's capital for these tests is $412.6 million at September 30, 2026.
Concentration is measured and the book is stress testedRatios against the supervisory markers and the board's limits; every scenario applied to the loans; ratios recomputed after the losses. This is where Larch Street Tower shows up, or does not.
The board risk committee reads the reportLimits, results, the loans behind the losses and proposed actions. Ashgrove's committee meets October 22.
Limits, lending and capital plans change, or do notThe point of the exercise. Examiners look for the line from the results to a decision.
Step 3 is the subject of this guide. Ashgrove Community Bank, its loans and its people are fictional.
Four surprises about the 300% CRE concentration test
300% is a marker for examiners
The 2006 guidance says it "does not establish specific CRE lending limits".3 A bank above 300% can be well run; a bank below it can be in trouble. The limits that bind are the ones the board writes.
The bottom of the fraction changed in 2020
The 2006 text divides by total risk-based capital. Since March 31, 2020 the agencies divide by tier 1 capital (mostly shareholders' equity) plus the allowance for credit losses, the reserve held against expected loan losses.4 A workbook built before 2020 may still use the old one.
The rate shock hits on a date
A fixed-rate loan feels a higher market rate only when it matures or reprices. Which loans do that inside the test's horizon matters as much as how far rates move.
Ratios rise under stress even as the book shrinks
Losses come straight out of capital, the bottom of the fraction. A bank at 320% today can be at 360% after a severe scenario without making a single new loan.
Concentration ratio, NOI, debt service coverage, cap rate
Concentration ratio
A group of loans divided by capital, as a percentage. Total CRE at 320% means $3.20 of CRE loans for every $1.00 of capital.
Net operating income (NOI)
What a property earns in a year from rent and other income, less its operating costs, before any loan payment.
Debt service coverage
NOI divided by the year's loan payments. 1.47x means $1.47 of income for every $1.00 due; below 1.00x the property cannot pay.
Capitalization (cap) rate
The yield a buyer wants: value equals NOI divided by the cap rate. When cap rates rise, values fall even if rent does not.
Which loans count toward the CRE concentration ratio, and which stay out
In shortSupervisory CRE is four call report lines: construction and land, multifamily, nonfarm nonresidential property repaid from third-party rent or sale, and loans that finance real estate without being secured by it. Owner-occupied business property, farmland and 1–4 family mortgages stay out. The classification decides the ratio before any arithmetic starts.
The guidance covers loans whose repayment depends on the property market, and leaves out loans repaid by an operating business that happens to occupy its own building.3 The OCC's CRE booklet names the exact call report lines. For the construction test it is schedule RC-C, Part I, items 1.a.(1) and 1.a.(2) plus Memorandum item 3. For total CRE it is items 1.a, 1.d and 1.e.(2) plus Memorandum item 3.5
Item 1.d is multifamily. Item 1.e.(2) is nonfarm nonresidential property that is not owner-occupied. Memorandum item 3 picks up loans that finance real estate, construction or land development but are not secured by real estate.
Call report line
What it holds
Construction test
Total CRE test
1.a.(1), 1.a.(2)
Construction, land development and other land loans, owner-occupied or not
In
In
1.d
Multifamily (five or more units)
Out
In
1.e.(2)
Nonfarm nonresidential, repaid mostly from third-party rent or from sale or refinancing: offices, shops, warehouses, hotels
Out
In
Memo 3
Loans to finance CRE, construction or land that are not secured by real estate
In
In
1.e.(1)
Owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential: a business repaying from its own operations
Out
Out
1.b, 1.c
Farmland and 1–4 family residential
Out
Out
What US banks hold, by kind of property
Office, retail, industrial and hotel loans make up three-fifths of bank CRE
CRE loans at all US commercial banks, September 2026, seasonally adjusted, $ billions
Source6 · The H.8 CRE line includes farmland and owner-occupied property, which the supervisory ratio leaves out. It does not split office from the rest.
The Federal Reserve's weekly data put bank CRE at $3.14 trillion in September 2026. Banks outside the 25 largest held $2,107.6 billion of the $3,017.2 billion at domestically chartered banks, about 70%.6 That is where concentration lives: in community and regional banks. The OCC's 2012 stress testing bulletin was written for banks of $10 billion or less.7
The national data cannot see office. Neither the call report nor the H.8 release has an office line. A bank that wants an office sub-limit, and most CRE-heavy banks now have one, has to tag property type on its own loan tape. In 2026 the Federal Reserve says supervisors are watching CRE-concentrated community and regional banks, "particularly the office and multifamily sectors".8 A bank without that tag cannot show its own office exposure.
03 · The rules and their dates
The CRE concentration guidance and stress testing rules in force in October 2026
Status as of October 2026
In shortTwo documents still set the expectations: the 2006 interagency guidance and the OCC's 2012 community bank stress testing bulletin. Neither has been rescinded. Around them, the denominator changed in 2020, the FDIC re-issued its advice in 2023, model risk guidance was replaced in April 2026, the OCC published a new concentrations booklet in September 2026, and the capital rules are under review.
Twenty years of CRE concentration rules: three changes in 2026 so far, one proposal pending
Dec 2006Interagency CRE guidance
The 100% construction and 300% plus 50% growth criteria; seven risk-management elements, stress testing among them.
Oct 2012OCC Bulletin 2012-33
Community banks stress test at least annually, over at least two years, by a method that fits their risk.
Dec 2015Interagency reminder
Growth, competition, rising concentrations and easing standards; examiners will focus on concentration risk.
Mar 31, 2020New denominator
Tier 1 capital plus the allowance replaces total risk-based capital for supervisory ratios.
Dec 18, 2023FDIC advisory FIL-64-2023
Six actions for CRE-concentrated banks, including portfolio and loan-level stress tests.
Apr 17, 2026SR 26-2 replaces SR 11-7
Revised model risk guidance; spreadsheet arithmetic excluded; generative AI out of scope.
Jul 1, 2026Leverage ratio eased
The community bank leverage ratio falls from 9% to 8%.
Sep 30, 2026OCC concentrations booklet v3.0
Keeps tier 1 capital plus the allowance as the measure.
A bank with CRE concentrations should "perform portfolio-level stress tests or sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact of changing economic conditions". The board should "Periodically review and approve CRE risk exposure limits and appropriate sublimits".3
December 2006, in force
OCC Bulletin 2012-33
For banks of $10 billion or less: stress testing "on at least an annual basis", "at least a two-year projection"; the OCC "does not endorse a particular stress testing method".7
October 2012, in force; its CRE tool ended in 2021
OCC Bulletin 2020-29
Concentrations calculated on "tier 1 capital plus the appropriate allowance"; applies "only to supervisory calculations for credit concentration ratios".4
From March 31, 2020
OCC CRE Lending booklet
Names the call report lines; "These criteria are not CRE lending limits"; examiners "Evaluate the quality and results of portfolio stress testing".5
Version 2.0, March 2022
FDIC FIL-64-2023
Strong capital, an appropriate allowance, close management of construction and CRE with "Portfolio and loan level stress tests or sensitivity analysis", current financial information, workout capacity, liquidity.10
December 18, 2023
CRE workout policy statement (OCC 2023-23)
Loan accommodations analyzed with the borrower's and guarantors' global debt service coverage.15
June 2023, in force
OCC Concentrations of Credit booklet
A concentration is more than 25% of tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses.13
Version 3.0, September 30, 2026
SR 26-2, OCC 2026-13, FDIC FIL-15-2026
A narrower definition of a model; spreadsheet arithmetic and fixed rules excluded; generative AI outside the scope.11,16,17
April 17, 2026
OCC community bank supervision (Bulletins 2025-24 and 2025-26)
Exam frequency and scope set by risk from January 1, 2026; model risk guidance does not require annual validation for community banks.18
October 6, 2025
Two claims to correct. "The OCC stress test tool will do it": the OCC's page for Bulletin 2012-33 now says the tool "was terminated in 2021 and is no longer on the OCC's BankNet website", and no replacement was announced.7 And "Basel endgame changed the CRE screens": the three capital proposals of March 19, 2026 would change risk-based capital requirements, but they are still proposals. Their comment period closed on June 18, 2026, no final rule had been issued by October 30, 2026, and the agencies' announcement does not mention CRE concentration ratios.14 The concentration denominator is set by the 2020 joint statement.4
04 · The three tests, worked
How to calculate the 100%, 300% and 50% growth tests, with one bank's numbers
In shortAdd the call report lines, divide by capital, and compare the growth of total CRE with its balance 36 months earlier. Then do it again for each property type against the board's sub-limits, convert every percentage into dollars of headroom, and repeat the whole thing with approved loans that have not funded yet.
Construction ratio = construction and land loans ÷ capital Total CRE ratio = (construction and land + multifamily + non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential + Memo 3) ÷ capital 36-month growth = (total CRE today − total CRE 36 months ago) ÷ total CRE 36 months ago Capital, since March 31, 2020 = tier 1 capital + allowance for credit losses on loans and leases
The guidance treats these as two separate criteria.3 The first, construction and land at 100% or more of capital, stands on its own. The second has two legs that must both be met: total CRE at 300% or more and growth of 50% or more over the prior 36 months. A bank at 340% with 20% growth does not meet it; a bank at 260% with 80% growth does not either. Neither is a reason to relax.
The FDIC's own count of concentrated banks ignores the growth leg and counts every bank above 300% of total CRE or 100% of construction, 1,374 banks or roughly 31% of all banks at the end of 2024.1
Ashgrove's three tests at September 30, 2026
Step
Arithmetic
Result
1. Construction and land
52 loans
$368.9M
2. Total CRE
Construction $368.9M + multifamily $318.4M + office $198.6M + retail $162.7M + industrial $141.9M + hotel $71.8M + self storage and other $58.0M
$1,320.3M
3. Capital for the tests
The capital figure the example loads from the call report, September 30, 2026. A real bank uses tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses on loans here
$412.6M
4. Construction ratio
$368.9M ÷ $412.6M
89.4%
5. Total CRE ratio
$1,320.3M ÷ $412.6M
320.0%
6. Growth
($1,320.3M − $913.1M in September 2023) ÷ $913.1M
44.6%
7. Reading
Construction under 100%; total CRE over 300% but growth under 50%
Neither criterion met today
The fictional example from the top of the page. The bank above 300% without 50% growth is the case the guidance still expects to manage carefully: it says a bank that has grown CRE quickly, has notable exposure to one type of CRE, or "is approaching or exceeds" the criteria may be identified for further supervisory analysis.3
Turn every limit into dollars
Office has the least room under its limit: $7.7 million
Ashgrove's headroom under each board limit, September 30, 2026: limit × capital − loans
Office (limit 50%)48.1% of capital$7.7M
Hotel (limit 20%)17.4%$10.7M
Construction and land (limit 100%)89.4%$43.7M
Retail (limit 50%)39.4%$43.6M
Self storage and other (limit 25%)14.1%$45.2M
Multifamily (limit 90%)77.2%$52.9M
Industrial (limit 50%)34.4%$64.4M
Total CRE (limit 350%)320.0%$123.8M
Fictional example from this guide
Show the numbers
Limit
Headroom
Office (limit 50%)
$7.7M
Hotel (limit 20%)
$10.7M
Construction and land (limit 100%)
$43.7M
Retail (limit 50%)
$43.6M
Self storage and other (limit 25%)
$45.2M
Multifamily (limit 90%)
$52.9M
Industrial (limit 50%)
$64.4M
Total CRE (limit 350%)
$123.8M
Boards set limits as percentages, but they decide on lending in dollars. Office at 48.1% sounds comfortable until it is written as $7.7 million, less than half of one large office loan. The arithmetic is simple: headroom equals the limit times capital, less the loans already held. For office, 50% × $412.6M − $198.6M = $7.7M.
Then add what is approved but not yet funded
Funding the approved pipeline would meet the 300% and 50% growth criterion
Ashgrove's ratios on the funded book and with nine approved, unfunded loans worth $96.5 million
Funded bookWith approved pipeline
Total CRE, % of capital320%343.4%
Construction and land, % of capital89.4%99.4%
36-month growth, %44.6%55.2%
Fictional example from this guide
Show the numbers
Funded book
With approved pipeline
Total CRE, % of capital
320%
343.4%
Construction and land, % of capital
89.4%
99.4%
36-month growth, %
44.6%
55.2%
The call report carries outstanding balances, and the FDIC's count states that "Unfunded commitments are not included".1 A board still needs the second column, because construction draws raise the balance without any new approval. In Ashgrove's case $41.2 million of the $96.5 million pipeline is construction, which would take that ratio to 99.4%. In 2025 the OCC wrote the same point into a formal agreement with Patriot Bank, asking for "procedures for monitoring concentration reports monthly based upon total committed amounts relative to Board-approved limits".19
The same bank on two denominators
Old spreadsheet · total risk-based capital
An illustrative bank with $1,220M of CRE: total risk-based capital of $425M (tier 1 $360M, allowance $40M, subordinated debt $25M). Total CRE ratio $1,220M ÷ $425M = 287.1%, under 300%.
Since March 2020 · tier 1 plus the allowance
The same bank: $360M + $40M = $400M. Total CRE ratio $1,220M ÷ $400M = 305.0%, over 300%. With 50% growth, the second criterion is met.
Illustrative arithmetic. Which way the gap runs depends on what else the bank counts in tier 2 capital. The examiner's number uses the 2020 denominator.4 Banks that use the community bank leverage ratio, eased from 9% to 8% from July 1, 2026, do not compute risk-based capital at all, so for them the newer denominator is the only one available.12
05 · The 50% rent test
Owner-occupied or not: the 50% rent test that moves the CRE ratio
In shortA nonfarm nonresidential loan counts as CRE when 50% or more of its repayment comes from rent paid by unrelated tenants, or from selling or refinancing the property. The decision is made once, when the loan is made or bought, and need not be revisited. Every dollar classified the wrong way moves the ratio by that dollar divided by capital.
The call report instructions put item 1.e.(2) loans in the CRE ratio when "50 percent or more of the source of repayment comes from third party, nonaffiliated, rental income" or from the sale, refinancing or permanent financing of the property, and they list hotels and motels on that line.20
A machine shop that owns its plant through a family property company is owner-occupied. An investor who leases the same plant to an unrelated manufacturer is not. A hotel counts as CRE even though its income comes from running the business, because its value moves with the property market.
The instructions also say the owner-occupied decision is made "upon acquisition (origination or purchase) of the loan" and "need not be reviewed thereafter".20 That keeps the call report stable, and it lets the label drift from the risk. A family that sells its operating company and keeps the building, now leased to the buyer, still reports the loan as owner-occupied. The building's loan is now repaid by a tenant. A concentration report that tracks such loans as their own segment shows the board risk the call report hides.
Construction counts in both ratios whoever occupies the building
Where each kind of loan lands in the two supervisory ratios, and which Federal Reserve stress model projects its losses
NoYes
Construction ratioTotal CRE ratioFed CRE loss modelConstruction and land, any occupantYesYesYesMultifamilyNoYesYesOffice, retail, warehouse leased to othersNoYesYesHotelNoYesYesOwner-occupied business propertyNoNoNoFarmlandNoNoNo
Our reading of the sources5,20,21 · Our reading of the OCC booklet's call report lines and the RC-C instructions. The Federal Reserve projects owner-occupied commercial property loans with its corporate loan model.
Show the numbers
Construction ratio
Total CRE ratio
Fed CRE loss model
Construction and land, any occupant
Yes
Yes
Yes
Multifamily
No
Yes
Yes
Office, retail, warehouse leased to others
No
Yes
Yes
Hotel
No
Yes
Yes
Owner-occupied business property
No
No
No
Farmland
No
No
No
The pressure on the label is one-sided. A loan officer has no reason to prefer the non-owner-occupied label, which pulls a loan into the ratio and its limits. On a bank with $400 million of capital, $40 million classified the wrong way moves the total CRE ratio by 10 points, more than many stress scenarios move it. A sound practice is a written reason on file for every 1.e loan: who owns the property, who occupies it, what share of repayment came from third-party rent at origination, and what has changed since.
Owner-occupied loans still belong in the stress test. They stay out of the ratio, and their risk runs through the borrower's business first and the building second. The Federal Reserve's own supervisory stress test projects them with its corporate model and keeps its CRE model for "income-producing" loans and construction.21 A board that sees owner-occupied exposure beside the ratio, by property type and market, sees the whole book.
06 · Kinds of stress test
Four kinds of CRE stress test, and what a loss-rate spreadsheet can and cannot say
In shortThe OCC names four kinds: transaction (one loan), portfolio, enterprise and reverse. A portfolio test can be built from the top, by applying loss rates to groups of loans, or from the bottom, by stressing each loan and adding up the results. The OCC's own worked example is a top-down spreadsheet, and it accepts either method as long as it fits the bank's risk.
One loan
Transaction
"estimates potential losses at the loan level by assessing the impact of changing economic conditions on a borrower's ability to service debt". For a commercial mortgage, the bulletin links the loan to its debt service coverage and loan to value.7
The book
Portfolio
The effect on the whole loan book: top down with stressed loss rates by category, or bottom up by adding transaction results.
The bank
Enterprise
Credit, interest rate, liquidity and earnings together, against capital.
Backwards
Reverse
Starts from an outcome, such as capital falling below its target, and asks what would have to happen to cause it.
The OCC's own example, a top-down spreadsheet
The OCC's example stress test puts its heaviest loss rate on construction
Two-year stressed loss rates in the worked example of OCC Bulletin 2012-33, appendix B
Appendix B of the bulletin multiplies each category's balance by a two-year loss rate, carries the losses through two years of earnings and subtracts the result from tier 1 capital. On its $600 of loans (the example states no unit), losses come to $61.8, two-year net income turns to a loss of $27.2, tier 1 capital falls from 88 to 60.8 and the leverage ratio from 11% to 8.2%.7
For many banks with a seasoned, low-leverage book, that is a complete and defensible annual test. The 2006 guidance itself says that well-margined, seasoned multifamily loans normally need far lighter testing than construction.3
Where the loss-rate method runs out
It cannot see dates
A loss rate on the nonfarm nonresidential line treats a loan that refinances next year like one fixed until 2031. The OCC's Spring 2026 report: "A substantial volume of CRE loans originated in a lower-interest environment will mature in the next several years and will need to be refinanced at prevailing rates."22
It cannot see office
The call report has no office line, so an office-heavy book and a warehouse-heavy book get the same rate. The 2006 guidance asks stress tests to focus on "the more vulnerable segments".3
It cannot name loans
When a director asks which loans make up the loss on the office row, a loss-rate sheet has no answer, and no action follows from it.
It hides in recent history
The median CRE net charge-off ratio was 0.07% in 2025.23 Rates calibrated to recent years stress almost nothing; the bulletin warns that low-loss periods "may mask" bigger future losses.7
The OCC put the scenario factors in a table of its own. In appendix C, four factors apply to every property type: lower collateral values, higher utility and energy costs, higher interest rates and higher capitalization rates. Falling rents and rising vacancy apply to most income property, and sale prices and absorption to construction.7 A test that moves all of those through one haircut on value has skipped the analysis the table asks for.
07 · One loan, step by step
Stress testing one office loan: income, the rate at refinance, value and loss
In shortA loan-level stress test moves the property's income, the interest rate it will pay if it refinances inside the horizon, and its value, then asks whether coverage falls below 1.00x or the loan rises above the value. Where it fails, the loss is the shortfall of the stressed value after selling and workout costs. Larch Street Tower, the loan from the top of the page, shows every step.
The facts, from three documents
The note
$18.4M balance, 4.15% fixed, matures June 2027, inside the bank's nine-quarter horizon to December 2028. Debt service today $1,182,000 a year.
The operating statement and rent roll
NOI $1,742,000 for the twelve months to June 2026. 71% leased, down from 84% at origination. Largest tenant 38,400 square feet, 21% of rent, lease ends March 31, 2027.
The appraisal and the market
$24.0M in March 2025 at a 7.25% cap rate. The bank's market data puts downtown Columbus office at 8.6% in October 2026.
Debt service rises 54% at refinance while income falls 22%
Larch Street Tower today and in the severe scenario at its June 2027 refinance, $
TodaySevere scenario at refinance
Net operating income$1.7M$1.4M
Annual debt service$1.2M$1.8M
Fictional example from this guide
Show the numbers
Today
Severe scenario at refinance
Net operating income
$1.7M
$1.4M
Annual debt service
$1.2M
$1.8M
Two shocks break this loan, and they come from different documents. The income shock comes from the operating statement and lands on a building already less full than at origination, whose biggest tenant can leave three months before the loan matures. The rate shock comes from the note: a loan written at 4.15% meets an 8.75% refinance rate.
Even with no fall in income, the refinance alone at today's 6.75% would take coverage to about 1.14x, below the bank's 1.25x policy and below the 1.2 to 1.5 minimum the Federal Reserve says lenders generally require.21 A test that reads both documents also says when the trouble arrives: the lease ends in March 2027 and the loan matures in June, eight months after the October board meeting.
How cap rates move value
Value = net operating income ÷ cap rate $1,742,000 ÷ 7.25% = $24.0M (the March 2025 appraisal) · $1,742,000 ÷ 8.6% = $20.3M, 16% lower with the same rent
A wider cap rate lowers value even when income holds, and the two shocks compound. That is why the OCC's CRE booklet says that "capitalization rates, interest rates, and DSCRs should be stress-tested" when a loan is underwritten.5
Research gives a sense of how far office values can move: a study of New York offices published in the American Economic Review in February 2026 estimates a 46% decline in long-run value, and $556.8 billion of value destruction across US offices.24 A severe scenario that takes office values down 35% sits inside that range. A 10% haircut applied to every property type alike would not be a severe office scenario.
Maturity is where supervisors look too. The Federal Reserve's own CRE loss model notes that lenders "generally require a minimum DSCR between 1.2 and 1.5", and raises its projected default probability for income-producing loans approaching maturity with coverage below 1.2 "by a factor of four".21 A loan-level test that knows every maturity date applies the same idea to a community bank's book.
08 · From loans to the book
Adding up 486 stressed loans, and the concentration ratios after the losses
In shortRun every loan through every scenario and add up the losses. Take the losses out of capital, then divide the book by what is left: that gives the ratios after stress, a number a report of losses alone leaves out. Because the result is a sum of loans, it can be cut by property type, market or maturity, and it names the loans behind every dollar.
The board's three scenarios at Ashgrove
Nine quarters to December 2028
Baseline
Adverse
Severe
Office values / income
−8% / −3%
−25% / −15%
−35% / −22%
Rates at refinance or reprice
+0 bp
+100 bp
+200 bp
Losses
$4.2M
$16.6M
$46.2M
Capital after losses
$408.4M
$396.0M
$366.4M
Loans that fail (below 1.00x or above value)
0
18 ($73.1M)
79 ($301.7M)
Fictional example. The scenario library is the board's, approved April 23, 2026; losses are taken against capital before any earnings, a conservative choice the board made. Loans maturing or repricing in the horizon, $866.8M or two thirds of the book, refinance at 6.75% plus the scenario's shock.
The severe case pushes three limits over the line, and the adverse case one
Ashgrove's concentration ratios after each scenario's losses, against the board's limits
Ratio after stress = loans in the book ÷ (capital − stress losses) Total CRE, severe: $1,320.3M ÷ ($412.6M − $46.2M) = about 360% Headroom under 350% after the severe case: 3.5 × $366.4M − $1,320.3M = −$37.9M
The ratio after stress is the board's second number. A bank with $123.8 million of room under its total CRE limit today has none left after a severe nine quarters, and is $37.9 million over. Office crosses its 50% limit as soon as losses anywhere in the book exceed $15.4 million, because that is the point at which capital falls to $397.2 million, twice the office book.
The OCC's 2025 consent order with EH National Bank put the link in writing: concentration limits must be "consistent with the Board's risk tolerance based on current market conditions, the declining capital base, and results of the most recent stress test results".25
From 486 loans to the one the board will ask about
The severe case narrows 486 loans to a dozen office loans and one tower
Ashgrove, severe scenario, number of loans
CRE loans stressed486
Fail the severe case79
Office loans that fail32
Office loans that carry $13.0M of the loss12
Larch Street Tower, $5.3M1
Fictional example from this guide
Show the numbers
Stage
Loans
CRE loans stressed
486
Fail the severe case
79
Office loans that fail
32
Office loans that carry $13.0M of the loss
12
Larch Street Tower, $5.3M
1
Office and construction carry three-quarters of the severe-case loss
Ashgrove's $46.2 million severe-case loss by property type
Office32 of 61 loans fail$18.7M
Construction and land19 of 52$16.9M
Multifamily8 of 104$4.3M
Retail15 of 97$3.8M
Hotel3 of 18$1.2M
Industrial1 of 72$1.1M
Self storage and other1 of 82$300K
Fictional example from this guide · Figures as shown in the sample data, rounded to $0.1M; they add to $46.3M against the $46.2M total.
Show the numbers
Property type
Severe-case loss
Office
$18.7M
Construction and land
$16.9M
Multifamily
$4.3M
Retail
$3.8M
Hotel
$1.2M
Industrial
$1.1M
Self storage and other
$300K
Loans fail for different reasons, and the reason points to the action. In the severe case at Ashgrove, 50 loans fail on coverage only, their stressed income below their payments; 23 fail on value only, with income that still covers the payments but a stressed value below the balance; and 6 fail on both, Larch Street Tower among them. A coverage failure suggests a conversation about rates, reserves or paydowns. A value failure suggests a new appraisal and a look at what a sale would recover.
09 · The failure record
What the 2007–2011 failures show about the concentration screens, and the mistakes that repeat
In shortThe screens predicted failure well in the last real CRE downturn: banks over both criteria failed at about 46 times the rate of banks over neither, and construction concentration drove most of the insurance fund's losses. The banks that failed had been building concentration for years. The common errors today come from classification, timing and follow-through; the arithmetic is the easy part.
Banks over both concentration criteria failed at 22.9%, against 0.5% for banks over neither
Share of banks that failed between March 31, 2007 and September 30, 2011, by which criteria they met in March 2007 (ratios on total risk-based capital, the measure then in use)
Met both criteria (772 banks)22.9%
Total CRE 300% or more with 50% growth (890)20.6%
Total CRE 300% or more (1,310)16.3%
Construction 100% or more (1,909)13%
Growth 50% or more only (1,496)4.8%
Met neither criterion (3,755)0.5%
Source26 · 7,379 banks studied. Groups overlap: the 890 are part of the 1,310.
Show the numbers
Group
Failed by Sep 2011
Met both criteria (772 banks)
22.9%
Total CRE 300% or more with 50% growth (890)
20.6%
Total CRE 300% or more (1,310)
16.3%
Construction 100% or more (1,909)
13%
Growth 50% or more only (1,496)
4.8%
Met neither criterion (3,755)
0.5%
OCC and Federal Reserve staff tracked 7,379 banks through the downturn. The study also estimated that banks over the construction criterion accounted for about 80% of the losses to the FDIC's insurance fund from 2007 to 2011.26 That is the reason to watch the construction ratio monthly: construction books move fastest, through draws on loans already approved.
Small banks that failed had built CRE to 535% of capital before the crisis
CRE concentration of small banks (under $1 billion) that failed in 2008–2011 and of those that did not, in the ten states with the most failures, % of total risk-based capital
The GAO's comparison shows how slowly the danger built. The banks that later failed were already well above the others in 2001, and their concentration rose faster for seven years.2 The FDIC's inspector general later found that from 2007 to 2013 poorly managed concentration risk contributed to the failure of 492 institutions and $74.6 billion of losses to the Deposit Insurance Fund.27 The same review is blunt about stress tests: some examiners "did not realize what 'good' concentration stress tests or concentration strategic contingency plans were" until they reviewed one at a bank.27
Ten mistakes that make a concentration report wrong
Mistake
What it does
Where it is caught
Total risk-based capital as the denominator
Can put the bank on the other side of 300% from its examiner's number
Overstates long fixed loans, misses next year's refinances
Shock only loans maturing or repricing in the horizon
Stale income used silently
A 2024 NOI treated as this year's
Mark every input older than policy
Losses reported, ratios after losses not
The board never sees which limits the scenario breaks
Divide by capital less losses
Scenarios nobody approved
Risk appetite set by whoever built the sheet
A dated, board-approved scenario library
Results that change nothing
A filed test with no action
Minutes linking results to limits, lending and capital7
10 · Where the risk sits in 2026
Bank CRE in 2026: a larger book, office distress outside the banks, and a wall of maturities
In shortBank CRE loans reached $3.14 trillion in September 2026. The median bank of $1 billion to $10 billion holds CRE above 300% of tier 1 capital plus the allowance. Office distress is visible in commercial mortgage securities, while bank loss rates stay low; the risk supervisors name in 2026 is refinancing loans written when rates were low.
Bank CRE loans grew by nearly two fifths in seven years
CRE loans at all US commercial banks, each September, seasonally adjusted, $ trillions
2.272019
2.42020
2.482021
2.752022
2.942023
32024
3.032025
3.142026
Source28 · Rounded from $2,265.2 billion in 2019 and $3,140.0 billion in 2026.
Show the numbers
September
$ trillions
2019
2.27
2020
2.4
2021
2.48
2022
2.75
2023
2.94
2024
3
2025
3.03
2026
3.14
Mid-sized banks hold the most CRE against their capital
Median CRE loans as % of tier 1 capital plus the allowance, by bank group, year-end 2024
$1 billion to $10 billion314%
$10 billion to $100 billion289%
Noncommunity banks under $100 billion258%
Community banks195%
Under $1 billion163%
Over $100 billion69%
Source1 · At year-end 2025 the FDIC reported 311% for $1–10 billion banks, 289% for $10–100 billion and 200% for the industry.
Show the numbers
Bank group
Median ratio
$1 billion to $10 billion
314%
$10 billion to $100 billion
289%
Noncommunity banks under $100 billion
258%
Community banks
195%
Under $1 billion
163%
Over $100 billion
69%
About a fifth of the commercial mortgages depositories service come due in 2026
21 in 100
dollars of commercial and multifamily mortgages serviced by depositories scheduled to mature in 2026: $396 billion
dollars of commercial and multifamily mortgages serviced by depositories scheduled to mature in 2026: $396 billion
21 of 100
The FDIC's 2026 Risk Review put the industry's median CRE ratio at 200% at year-end 2025 and the median for banks of $1 billion to $10 billion at 311%, so more than half of the banks in that band sit above 300% on the ratio alone.23
The Atlanta Fed reported in 2024 that concentration ratios had risen about 15 percentage points since the start of 2021, for US banks overall and in its own district.30 The Chicago Fed's look at community banks found that of 2,668 with CRE at 25% or more of loans in mid-2023, 42.7% were at or above 300% of total capital.31
Loss rates at banks remain low. The median net charge-off ratio on CRE was 0.07% in 2025, and of $11.6 billion of modified CRE loans, 82% were performing.23 At June 30, 2026, noncurrent rates across insured institutions were 0.99% for construction and development, 1.23% for nonfarm nonresidential and 1.10% for multifamily.32
Troubled investor CRE loans at the largest banks are off their 2024 peak, and still five times the pre-pandemic rate
Non-owner-occupied CRE loans past due or no longer accruing interest, at banks over $250 billion, %
The worst office losses sit at the largest banks, whose non-owner-occupied CRE past-due and nonaccrual rate fell to 3.08% from a 4.99% peak in the third quarter of 2024, against a pre-pandemic average of 0.59%.33 Federal Reserve research finds small banks' lower delinquency mostly reflects "their low holdings of large-sized office loans".34
Office: the market's weak spot
12.34%
office loans in commercial mortgage securities delinquent in January 2026, a record; 12.16% in September 2026.35,36
Trepp data, via MBA NewsLink and Scotsman Guide
34%
below their 2022 peak: office values in June 2026. All commercial property was 14% below.37
Green Street index, via CRE Daily
19.8%
of US office space vacant at the end of the third quarter of 2026, 25 basis points lower than a year earlier.38
Cushman & Wakefield
Loans coming due at higher rates are the 2026 worry
Commercial banks are the largest holder of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt, with 38% of $5.1 trillion in the second quarter of 2026.39 The Mortgage Bankers Association counted $875 billion of commercial and multifamily mortgages, 17% of $5.0 trillion, scheduled to mature in 2026, $396 billion of it at depositories, and $652 billion more in 2027.29
The OCC's Spring 2026 report says CRE headwinds "have not resulted in significant credit defaults, although refinance risk merits continued attention".22 The Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report adds that "Lenders' willingness to extend or modify maturing loans has helped to limit this risk to date. However, this option may be increasingly limited going forward".40 New York Fed research on large banks puts CRE loans expiring within three years at about 37.0% of marked-to-market capital for less-capitalized banks, against 27.8% for better-capitalized ones.41
Credit standards have stopped tightening. In the Federal Reserve's survey of senior loan officers, the net share of banks tightening standards for construction and land loans fell from 73.8% in the second quarter of 2023 to −3.7% in July 2026: slightly more banks eased than tightened.42 Looser standards and growing books are the conditions the agencies warned about in December 2015, when they observed "substantial growth in many markets, increased competitive pressures, rising concentrations, and an easing of underwriting standards".9
Banks went from tightening construction loan standards to easing them
Net % of senior loan officers reporting tighter standards for construction and land development loans, by survey
-20020406080-3.7
Q1 23Q3 23Q1 24Q3 24Q1 25Q3 25Q1 26Q3 26
Source42 · Survey quarters as dated by the Federal Reserve; Q3 26 is the July 2026 survey. Below zero, more banks eased than tightened.
Show the numbers
Net % tightening, construction and land
Q1 23
69.2
Q2 23
73.8
Q3 23
71.7
Q4 23
64.9
Q1 24
39.7
Q2 24
24.6
Q3 24
23.8
Q4 24
14.8
Q1 25
9.5
Q2 25
11.1
Q3 25
9.7
Q4 25
6.6
Q1 26
1.8
Q2 26
4.9
Q3 26
-3.7
The tail risk. Researchers at the University of Southern California, Northwestern, Columbia and Stanford estimated that "A 10% (20%) default rate on CRE loans could lead to $80 billion ($160 billion) in additional bank losses", and that CRE distress "could put dozens to over 300 smaller regional banks at risk of solvency runs" under their scenarios.43 Those are model estimates, made when rates first rose. They show why the guidance asks concentrated banks to know their own exposure loan by loan.
11 · Board and examiners
What the board approves, what the report should show, and what examiners grade
In shortThe board owns the limits, the CRE strategy and the scenarios; management measures, tests and proposes. A good report shows each limit with its headroom in dollars, the results of every approved scenario, the ratios after losses, the loans behind the losses, the assumptions and the data quality, and proposed actions. Examiners grade the quality of the test and what it changed.
The 2006 guidance gives the board "ultimate responsibility for the level of risk assumed by the institution". It should approve the CRE lending strategy, "Ensure that management implements procedures and controls", review information that quantifies CRE concentration risk, and "Periodically review and approve CRE risk exposure limits and appropriate sublimits".3 Management should have "a contingency plan to reduce or mitigate concentrations in the event of adverse CRE market conditions", and should stratify the book by "property type, geographic market, tenant concentrations, tenant industries, developer concentrations, and risk rating".3
Only 27 in 100 sampled exam reports put concentration concerns on the board-attention page
27 in 100
of the 41 examination reports the FDIC's inspector general sampled raised concentration concerns as matters requiring board attention; most raised them in the examination conclusions and comments instead (2018 review)
of the 41 examination reports the FDIC's inspector general sampled raised concentration concerns as matters requiring board attention; most raised them in the examination conclusions and comments instead (2018 review)
27 of 100
The inspector general counted 11 of 41 reports that used the page reserved for matters requiring board attention.27 That finding is the case for a board report that does not wait for the examiner. A board that sees its own numbers, often enough to act and in a form that names loans and markets, does not depend on the report of examination to learn that concentration has become a problem.27
What two 2025 OCC orders spell out
Consent order · EH National Bank · April 29, 2025
Within sixty days, a concentration program with limits "based on a percentage of Tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses, stratified by loan type, locality of the borrower and/or collateral", and limits consistent with risk tolerance, the declining capital base and "results of the most recent stress test results".25
Formal agreement · Patriot Bank · January 14, 2025
"procedures for monitoring concentration reports monthly based upon total committed amounts relative to Board-approved limits", and "annual re-evaluation and approval of concentration limits by the Board".19
The six pages a board report needs
Page
The question it answers
What it shows
1. Summary
Are we inside our limits, and what would take us out?
Three sentences and the limits crossed under each scenario
2. Concentration
How close are we?
Each limit and supervisory marker, shown apart; headroom in dollars; with and without the approved pipeline; the trend
3. Stress results
What would a bad market do?
Losses, capital after losses, ratios after losses, for every approved scenario
4. The loans behind the loss
Which loans, and why?
The largest losses with the reason each fails: coverage, value or both
5. Assumptions and data
Can we trust it?
The scenario library version and approval date; stale statements and appraisals, marked
6. Actions
What do we do?
Proposals for the committee to decide, with owners
The layout is ours, drawn from the guidance, the OCC's examination procedures and the 2025 orders.3,5,25,19 The OCC's procedures ask examiners to "Evaluate the quality and results of portfolio stress testing", and to assess whether management and board reports address growth, asset quality, concentrations and trends.5
12 · Automation and AI
Automating CRE stress tests: what SR 26-2 treats as a model, and what stays with people
Status as of October 2026
In shortSoftware can read rent rolls, statements and appraisals, classify the tape, compute the ratios, re-stress every loan and draft the report. Under the April 2026 model risk guidance, arithmetic on board-approved shocks is outside the definition of a model, a valuation or default engine probably inside it, and generative AI outside the guidance's scope altogether. Scenarios, limits, owner-occupied judgments and signatures stay with named people.
SR 26-2 defines a model as "a complex quantitative method, system, or approach that applies statistical, economic, or financial theories to process input data into quantitative estimates". It excludes "simple arithmetic calculations, such as those found within spreadsheets" and "deterministic rule-based processes and software where there are no statistical, economic, or financial theories underpinning their design or use".11,16
The OCC's bulletin says generative AI and AI that acts on its own "are not within the scope of this guidance", and repeats that the guidance does not "require community banks to perform annual model validation".16 The Federal Reserve expects it to be most relevant to organizations over $30 billion.11
In a CRE stress engine, the loss model is the part most likely to count as a model under SR 26-2
Our reading of SR 26-2 for the components of a loan-level CRE stress test
NoDependsYes
A model under SR 26-2Assumption the board ownsNeeds a person's sign-offReading rent rolls, statements and appraisalsNoNoDependsClassifying loans to call report linesNoNoYesConcentration ratios and headroomNoNoDependsScenario shocks by property typeNoYesYesValue from cap rate, coverage from paymentDependsDependsDependsDefault probability or loss modelYesDependsYesDrafting the board reportNoNoYes
Our reading of the sources11,16 · Valuing property by the income approach applies financial theory; whether your policy calls it a model is your decision. Your counsel and model risk team decide.
Show the numbers
A model under SR 26-2
Assumption the board owns
Needs a person's sign-off
Reading rent rolls, statements and appraisals
No
No
Depends
Classifying loans to call report lines
No
No
Yes
Concentration ratios and headroom
No
No
Depends
Scenario shocks by property type
No
Yes
Yes
Value from cap rate, coverage from payment
Depends
Depends
Depends
Default probability or loss model
Yes
Depends
Yes
Drafting the board report
No
No
Yes
How examiners will judge an automated CRE stress test
Narrow and supervised. The OCC's Spring 2026 report says banks are taking "a measured approach" to generative AI and to AI that acts on its own, "with usage generally limited to specific use cases with guardrails and human-in-the-loop accountability to manage risk".22
Traceable or it cannot be graded. Examiners judge "the quality and results" of a stress test.5 A loss that opens to its income, rate and value steps, and to the document each came from, can be judged; a loss figure that cannot be taken apart cannot.
The board's scenarios, limits and owner-occupied calls stay human
The board chooses the scenarios and the limits. Software applies them; approving them stays with the board.
A borrower who has not sent this year's operating statement still has not sent it. Software can mark the stale input and draft the request.
Whether a loan is owner-occupied is a credit judgment made at origination, and a person should decide any change.20
The allowance for credit losses, interest rate risk and liquidity tests remain separate work.
The responsibility stays with the bank that signs the report.
13 · How teams do it today
Who builds the CRE stress test today, where the six weeks go, and three ways to do it
In shortA portfolio manager or credit risk analyst builds it, credit analysts chase property financials, the chief risk officer owns the scenarios, the chief credit officer signs, and the board risk committee reads it. Most of the time goes to collecting rent rolls and operating statements, which the loan system does not hold. That is why many banks run the full test once a year.
Who builds the CRE stress test, from portfolio manager to board
PM
CRE portfolio manager or credit risk analyst
Pulls the tape and capital, computes the ratios, builds the stress workbook, writes the board report.
Cares about: getting the report right in time for the committee.
CA
Credit analysts
Collect and read operating statements and rent rolls from borrowers; mark what is missing.
Cares about: borrowers who send last year's numbers late.
CR
Chief risk officer
Owns the scenario library and the risk appetite statement; reviews the results.
Cares about: assumptions shown next to the numbers.
CC
Chief credit officer
Signs the report, answers the examiners, proposes changes to limits and lending.
Cares about: an answer the day a director asks "what if".
BR
Board risk committee
Approves limits, sub-limits, scenarios and the contingency plan; reads the results.3
Cares about: whether the bank is inside its limits, and which loans would take it out.
Five hand-offs from loan tape to the board risk committee
A once-a-year CRE stress test passes through five people before the board reads it
1Tape and capital
Quarter-end loan tape classified to call report lines and property types; capital from the call report.
Portfolio managerDays
2Property financials
Latest NOI, occupancy, rent roll and appraisal for every income property, from credit files and borrowers.
Shocks applied by type; losses, capital after, ratios after.
Portfolio manager; risk officer reviews
A week or more
Report signed
Board pack written with assumptions and actions; signed.
Chief credit officer
Days
Board decides
Limits, scenarios, lending and capital plans; minutes.
Board risk committee
At its meeting
Thirty working days, two fifths spent collecting rent rolls
Collecting property financials takes two fifths of a hand-built stress test
Working days for one stress test of a book of about 500 CRE loans by spreadsheet, an estimate
Collecting rent rolls and statementsTape, capital and ratiosStressing each scenarioWriting the board report
By spreadsheet, about 30 working days12 days5 days8 days5 days
Illustrative · replace with your own numbers · An estimate from the solution's design notes; no regulator or study publishes the time a CRE stress test takes. Time your own.
Show the numbers
Collecting rent rolls and statements
Tape, capital and ratios
Stressing each scenario
Writing the board report
By spreadsheet, about 30 working days
12 days
5 days
8 days
5 days
Thirty working days is six calendar weeks for one person, often longer between other duties. Because of that, the full test happens once a year, close to the OCC's floor of "at least an annual basis".7 Between tests the board sees a ratio table, and a director's question about a market move waits for the next cycle.
Loss-rate spreadsheet, outside consultant or stress testing software
In house
A spreadsheet the bank builds
The OCC's appendix B loss-rate sheet, or a loan-level workbook with one row per loan and a block of columns per scenario. Cheap to start and fully understood; the cost is keeping property financials current.
Outsourced
A consultant or stress test service
Outside staff build the test from the bank's data once or twice a year. The bank still owns the assumptions, checks the work and answers for the result.
Software
Concentration and stress testing tools
Systems that hold the loans and run the scenarios. They differ most on where property income comes from, how the rate shock is timed, whether every number opens to its loan and document, and how often they can run.
Part B · See it working
Botminds CRE Concentration & Stress Testing, one month-end run at a time
This part shows how Botminds does the work at Ashgrove Community Bank, the fictional Ohio bank from the top of the page: 486 CRE loans, $1,320.3 million, a board risk committee on October 22. Every bank, person, property, borrower and number in the screens is sample data.
14 · One run, start to finish
From a 40-basis-point market move to a signed board report, on the scenario board
In shortThis is the example from the top of the page, inside the product. Renee Castellano, the CRE portfolio manager, answers the board's likely question by moving one slider, saves the answer into the write-up, runs the month's three board scenarios on every loan, opens the loan that drives the loss, and sends a drafted report. Sunita Varma, the chief risk officer, reviews it; Martin Hale, the chief credit officer, signs.
1
The book on one board, with rents already 8% lower
Renee opens her desk view: in-place rents down 8% as leases roll. The top line labels the bank's $412.6 million "total risk-based capital", the 2006 guidance's term; since March 31, 2020 supervisors measure capital for these ratios as tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses.
Every loan has been re-stressed from its own rent roll. Losses to December 2028 are $13.8 million, capital after losses $398.8 million, and 14 loans sit below 1.00x coverage, Larch Street Tower first. No limit is crossed, but office is at 49.8% of capital against its 50% limit, and total CRE at 331.1% of 350%.
The run log carries the morning's market note: downtown Columbus office cap rates are 40 basis points higher than in September.
The scenario board. Four market sliders on the left, the readout across the top, every concentration ratio after losses against the board's red limit line, and the loans below 1.00x on the right.
2
Cap rates 150 basis points wider: office crosses its limit
She clicks +150 on the cap-rate slider. The spread is added to each property's own cap rate from its appraisal, and each value is recomputed from its stressed income. Losses rise to $24.5 million and capital after losses falls to $388.1 million. The office bar crosses its red line at 51.2%. Thirty-seven loans are now below 1.00x, 23 more than the desk view, and the newly broken ones move to the top of the list with their occupancy, coupon, refinance rate, income against debt service and value.
Cap rates +150 basis points. $24.5M of losses, 37 loans below 1.00x, and office over its limit at 51.2% of capital after losses.
3
The question goes into the write-up before anyone asks it
Renee saves the move as "Cap rates +150 bp · rents −8%", with every loan's result and every assumption. One switch puts it in the stress test write-up as a fourth column beside the board's three approved scenarios, with the loans that break named in a paragraph. The board's three approved scenarios stay as they were.
Save the scenario. Named, saved with every loan's result, and switched into the write-up as a column beside the board's three.
4
The month's run: three scenarios on every loan in about two minutes
She presses Run October. The run reads the September 30 loan tape and capital, the rent rolls, statements and appraisals, and the bank's market data; tests every limit; and runs 1,458 loan-scenarios, 486 loans under three scenarios. In the sample data it finishes in 2 minutes 8 seconds. Two steps carry amber marks: 11 operating statements older than 15 months were used as they are and marked, and the severe case fails 79 loans.
The limits table shows the result: total CRE at 360.4% after severe losses, construction at 100.7%, office over its limit under both the adverse and the severe case.
The October stress test. Each step of the run with what it read and found, and every limit under each scenario after its losses.
5
Why Larch Street Tower fails, line by line
Renee opens the loan that carries the largest single loss. The walk shows income from the June 2026 operating statement cut 22%, debt service at the June 2027 refinance at 8.75% on 25-year amortization, the March 2025 appraisal cut 35%, and the loss: stressed value less 10% selling costs, plus 5% workout costs, $5,280,000. The property panel shows occupancy down from 84% at origination to 71%, and the largest tenant's lease ending in March 2027. Each line opens to the rent roll, statement or appraisal it came from.
One loan's walk. Income, debt service at refinance, value and loss under the severe case, with the three source documents. Coverage shows as 0.74x: $1,358,760 ÷ $1,815,293 = 0.7485, cut to two decimals.
6
A six-page draft, four proposed actions, then two signatures
The report drafter has written the board report: summary, concentration with and without the pipeline, stress results with Renee's scenario as a fourth column, the loans behind the loss, the assumptions and the actions. It proposes four: a new appraisal for Larch Street Tower, an early refinance conversation with its borrower, funding the construction pipeline in step with payoffs, and collecting the 11 stale statements.
Renee can remove any of them or add her own; in the sample story she adds a fifth, no new office loans until office is under 45% of capital, about $12.9 million less office. She sends it; Sunita Varma reviews; Martin Hale signs. The report goes to the committee for October 22, every step on the activity record.
The board report. The draft with the saved scenario as a fourth column, actions proposed for the committee to decide, and the sign-off chain: prepares, reviews, signs. The summary names the denominator "total risk-based capital"; a report to examiners today states ratios on tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses.
The solution's design targets are concentration and stress results every month instead of once a year, and every one of the 486 loans stressed property by property with every assumption shown. They are targets, to be measured on your own book.
15 · Every screen
The rest of the desk: every loan as a square, the three tests, scenarios, markets, inputs and settings
In shortOne run is the story. These screens show the rest: every loan by property type with the ones that broke ringed, the supervisory tests and sub-limits, the scenario results and the library behind them, losses by market, the data and how current it is, every loan under stress, the signed report and the board's settings.
Every loan, weakest cover first. 486 squares by property type, colored by the weaker of debt cover and value cover; the office loans that broke after the cap-rate move ringed; the saved scenarios below, the new one switched into the write-up.
Concentration. The three supervisory tests with the board's limit and the benchmark shown apart; each property type against its sub-limit with headroom in dollars; the trend; nine approved loans not yet funded. The heading and footer call the $412.6M "total risk-based capital", the 2006 term; supervisors have divided by tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses since 2020.
Scenario results. Losses, capital after losses and loans that fail under each scenario, split by why they fail, and the severe loss by property type with each type's loss rate.
The scenario library. Version 3, approved by the board risk committee on April 23, 2026: value and income shocks by property type, the reason for the severe office shock, and a calculator for testing your own case loan by loan.
Markets. Severe-case loss rate by property type and market, and what moved in each market since September, from the bank's own market data feed.
Inputs. Every source the run reads and how current it is; 11 statements older than 15 months, $29.0M of loans, each one request away. The capital tile and row label the $412.6M "total risk-based", the 2006 term; the figure a bank loads today is tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses.
Loans under stress. Every loan with coverage and loan to value, today and stressed, why it fails and its projected loss; filtered by scenario, type and market, and ready to export for examiners.
Signed. Prepared, reviewed and signed, and every step on the activity record: tape loaded, run, draft, saved scenario, signature.
Settings. The board's limits (changes are proposals until approved), the monthly run, the market-move trigger, the stale-statement threshold and the loss model. The limits are headed "share of total risk-based capital", the 2006 term; today's measure is tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses.
Select any screen to open it larger. "Total risk-based capital" on the screens is the 2006 guidance's label for the sample bank's $412.6M; a bank loads tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses on loans, the measure since March 31, 2020 (section 04). The bank, people, properties, borrowers and market data source are fictional.
16 · Agents, and who signs
Six agents read, calculate and draft. The board's people decide and sign.
In shortEach agent has one job and limits it does not cross. None of them changes a board limit or a scenario, estimates a missing income figure, changes a loan's owner-occupied status or sends a report. The portfolio manager prepares and proposes, the chief risk officer reviews, the chief credit officer signs, and the board approves limits, scenarios and actions.
Six agents, from loan tape reader to board report drafter
Loan tape reader
Reads the month-end loan tape and classifies every loan by property type, market and the call report line the concentration guidance uses.
Never changes a loan's owner-occupied status; it flags the loan for the credit file. Every loan is counted once.
Operating statement reader
Reads rent rolls, operating statements and appraisals for every property and keeps NOI, occupancy, leases ending, largest tenants and value, each with its date.
Never invents or estimates an NOI; a stale statement is used with its date marked.
Market data watcher
Keeps cap rates, rents and vacancy by market and property type from the bank's own market data feed.
Never uses a figure without its source and date; a move above the threshold asks for an extra run and never starts one alone.
Concentration calculator
Tests total CRE, construction and 36-month growth and every sub-limit against capital, with and without the approved pipeline, and states headroom in dollars.
Never changes a board limit; supervisory benchmarks and board limits are always shown apart.
Stress tester
Applies each scenario to every loan: income, rate at refinance, value; computes coverage, loan to value and projected loss; re-tests every limit after the losses.
Never changes a scenario's assumptions; shows every assumption next to its result.
Board report drafter
Drafts the board and examiner report: concentration, the scenarios, the loans that drive the loss, every assumption, and proposed actions.
Never sends a report the chief credit officer has not signed; it proposes actions for people to decide.
People decide; every number traces to its loan
Prepares and proposesCRE portfolio managerRuns the month, saves scenarios into the write-up, accepts, removes or adds actions, sends for review.
ReviewsChief risk officerOwns the scenario library and the risk appetite; reviews every report before it is signed.
SignsChief credit officerSigns the report; nothing goes to the board unsigned.
The board risk committee approves limits, sub-limits, scenarios and actions; a change in Settings is a proposal until it does. Losses are taken against capital before earnings, as the board chose. Every tape loaded, run, saved scenario, action, review and signature is on the activity record with who and when, agent steps and human decisions kept apart.
Renee Castellano's 486-loan book and the people who sign for it
Fictional, from the sample data
RC
Renee Castellano · CRE portfolio manager
Owns monitoring of the 486-loan book and the board risk committee pack.
"I spend six weeks building the stress test and one afternoon talking about it."
MH
Martin Hale · Chief credit officer
Signs every board report and answers the examiners.
"If the board asks 'what if office drops another ten percent', I want the answer that day."
SV
Sunita Varma · Chief risk officer
Owns the scenario library and the risk appetite statement.
"Show me the assumptions next to the number."
JA
Judith Ames · Board risk committee chair
Approves limits and scenarios twice a year; reads the report.
"Are we inside our limits, and which loans would take us out?"
OT
Owen Tran · Credit analyst
Chases operating statements and rent rolls from borrowers.
"Half my month is getting a trailing-twelve-month statement out of a borrower."
17 · What goes in and out
Month-end loan tape and property files in, a signed concentration and stress report out
In shortIt reads the data a bank already has: the loan tape, call report capital, rent rolls, operating statements, appraisals, its market data and its credit policy. It leaves behind every ratio against every limit, stress results by loan, property type and market, the loans that fail under each scenario, and a signed board and examiner report with every assumption shown.
For each, check whether it offers an API, a file feed or only screens, and who owns it.
Your loan system, credit files and board limits stay yours
Your loan system
Stays the system of record. The run reads its month-end tape; nothing is written back to it.
Your credit files
Rent rolls, statements and appraisals are read where they are kept, and every figure keeps a link to its page.
Your limits and scenarios
Become settings that only the board's approval changes, versioned and dated.
Your market data
Your feed, with source and date on every figure; a move past your threshold asks for an extra run.
Your board pack
The signed report goes out as a document your board portal already takes.
Your examiners
Get every loan's walk and every assumption, exported from the same run the board read.
Loan by loan, the board's scenarios, people sign
1
Loan by loan, from the loan's own numbers
Income from its rent roll, the rate shock on its own maturity, value from its own appraisal and cap rate.
2
The board's limits, the board's scenarios
Shown apart from the supervisory markers, changed only with the board's approval.
3
Agents calculate; people sign
A named portfolio manager prepares, the chief risk officer reviews, the chief credit officer signs.
Part C · Are you ready to automate?
Deciding on CRE stress testing software, from the cost of today's annual test to a pilot on your own book
You build the CRE stress test, or sign it, or sit on the committee that reads it. This part is written for you: what an annual, hand-built test costs and misses, what monthly loan-level testing could return, whether your bank is ready, what to ask any vendor of CRE stress testing software, including us, and how to run a pilot that proves it on your own book.
18 · What a stale test costs
What a once-a-year CRE stress test costs you in staff weeks, late answers and missed loans
In shortStart from your own numbers. No regulator or study publishes how long a CRE stress test takes, what it costs, or how often concentration reports are wrong. What is published frames the stakes: what a risk analyst's hour costs, how concentrated banks fared the last time, and how little recent loss history tells you.
$81/hr
a financial risk specialist's median pay, $117,330 a year in May 2025, loaded for benefits at the 70.0% wage share of private employers' costs.44,45
BLS wages and compensation costs · our arithmetic
22.9 in 100
banks that met both concentration criteria in 2007 failed by September 2011, against 0.5 in 100 that met neither.26
OCC and Federal Reserve staff study, 2013
0.07%
was the median bank's CRE net charge-off ratio in 2025. Loss rates calibrated to recent years stress almost nothing.23
FDIC 2026 Risk Review
Collection and rebuilding are the hours software can take
People hours for one CRE stress test of a book of about 500 loans
By spreadsheet (estimate)With automation (review and sign-off)
Collecting and reading property financials96 hours2 hours
Tape, capital and ratios40 hours2 hours
Stressing the scenarios64 hours4 hours
Writing and reviewing the report40 hours8 hours
Illustrative · replace with your own numbers · Neither column is a measurement. The left column is an estimate of 30 working days; the right is an assumption to test in a pilot. Time your own.
Show the numbers
By spreadsheet (estimate)
With automation (review and sign-off)
Collecting and reading property financials
96 hours
2 hours
Tape, capital and ratios
40 hours
2 hours
Stressing the scenarios
64 hours
4 hours
Writing and reviewing the report
40 hours
8 hours
What nobody publishes. There is no public figure for the hours a CRE stress test takes, the share of banks that test loan by loan, the error rate of concentration reports, or how often a board's limit is crossed between annual tests. Vendor figures for these come without a dataset. Measure your own.
Counting your stress test hours and stale operating statements
Cost
Where it hides
How to find your number in a week
Staff time per test
Chasing statements, rebuilding the workbook, writing the pack
Ask the builder and the analysts to reconstruct last year's hours by step
Stale inputs
Income figures older than your policy, used without a mark
Count loans whose latest operating statement is more than 15 months old, and their balance
Refinance exposure
Loans maturing or repricing inside your horizon, shocked as if fixed
Sum balances maturing or repricing in the next nine quarters from the tape
Denominator gap
Ratios still on total risk-based capital
Recompute last quarter's ratios on tier 1 plus the allowance on loans
Late answers
Board questions held for the next annual test
Read the last four committee minutes for "what if" questions and the date each was answered
Findings
Comments on concentration management and stress testing
Your last two exam reports, loan review and internal audit
A limit crossed in March, found in the December test
The limit you crossed in Marchand learned about in the December test.
The loan you could have refinanced earlywhile the tenant's renewal was still open.
The construction draws that took you overwith no new approval anywhere.
The capital plan built on last year's bookand a scenario nobody re-ran after the market moved.
Your analysts' autumnspent collecting statements instead of reading them.
19 · Your return
What monthly, loan-level CRE stress testing could return for your bank
In shortFor most banks the return is more tests for less staff time per test, and answers that arrive while there is time to act. The calculator starts from a published wage and asks you for the rest. Every default marked illustrative is an assumption to replace with your own.
Fewer staff weeks, twelve tests a year, same-day board answers
Staff time
Read the results, stop rebuilding them
Property financials read and dated, the tape classified, the ratios and scenarios run before anyone opens a workbook.
tests a year × (hours by hand − hours with automation) × loaded hourly cost
Cadence
Twelve tests on month-end data
A limit crossed in March is seen in April, and a market move past your threshold asks for an extra run.
months a breach goes unseen, before and after
Board questions
"What if" answered the same day
A slider move re-stresses every loan and re-tests every limit, and can be saved into the report.
days from a director's question to an answer
Action
Names behind the numbers
Every loss traced to a loan and the reason it fails, so the committee can order an appraisal or start a refinance talk.
actions taken on named loans per quarter
Data quality
Stale inputs in plain sight
Every statement older than policy marked, with the request drafted.
share of balance stressed on current income
Exams
Evidence ready to hand
Every assumption with its approval date, every loan's walk with its documents, exported from the run the board read.
hours spent assembling support for examiners
Your staff hours back from monthly loan-level stress tests
Only the hourly cost is built from published figures: the BLS median wage for financial risk specialists, $117,330, divided by 2,080 hours and by the 70.0% wage share of employer costs.44,45 The OCC asks community banks to stress test at least once a year.7 Every input marked illustrative is an assumption.
How oftenHours per testYour cost
Illustrative yearly figures
Your testing today, staff time valued$0
The cadence you want, built by hand$0
The cadence you want, with automation, all in$0
Saved against building that cadence by hand$0
Extra spend compared with today$0
Cost per test with automation$0
Staff hours a year with automation0
Formulas, per year: Today = tests today × hours by hand × hourly cost By hand at your cadence = tests you want × hours by hand × hourly cost With automation = tests you want × hours with automation × hourly cost + yearly cost Saved = by hand at your cadence − with automation Extra spend = with automation − today (negative means you spend less than today) Cost per test = with automation ÷ tests you want
Read "saved" as the cost of the same answers by hand; most banks would never pay it, which is why they test once a year. The case rests on whether twelve tests and same-day answers are worth the extra spend. Not counted: losses avoided by acting earlier, findings avoided, and the board's time.
At $75,000 a year, automation costs less than building by hand from the fifth test a year
Full stress tests a year at which automation costs less than building the same tests by hand: yearly cost ÷ ((240 − 16) hours × $81)
Yearly cost $40,0002.2 tests
Yearly cost $75,0004.1 tests
Yearly cost $150,0008.3 tests
Yearly cost $250,00013.8 tests
Illustrative · replace with your own numbers
Show the numbers
Yearly cost
Tests a year to break even
Yearly cost $40,000
2.2 tests
Yearly cost $75,000
4.1 tests
Yearly cost $150,000
8.3 tests
Yearly cost $250,000
13.8 tests
A bank that wants monthly tests clears every line but the last; one that wants quarterly tests breaks even near the $75,000 line. A bank with a small, seasoned book that the OCC's loss-rate spreadsheet already serves, and a board that asks no "what if" questions between tests, probably is not, and should say so before buying anything.7
Start here20 · Readiness check
The loan tape, property financials and board limits a loan-level CRE stress test needs from your bank
In shortPick the answer closest to your bank today. Eight questions score 0 to 2; the ninth is for reflection. The meter adds up your score as you go, and each question says why it matters and what a strong answer sounds like.
1
Where you stand
Where is your total CRE ratio, on tier 1 capital plus the allowance, against 300%?
Why it mattersThe guidance expects stronger risk management, including stress testing, as a bank approaches or exceeds the criteria.3
A strong answer"318% and rising; construction is 88% with $40 million approved and unfunded."
2
What is in the book
How much of your CRE is office, hotel or construction, or matures inside the next two years?
Why it mattersLoan-level testing pays where the book is sensitive and maturities fall inside the horizon; seasoned multifamily needs far lighter testing.3
A strong answer"About a third is office and construction, and $400 million matures or reprices by 2028."
3
The loan tape
Does every CRE loan on your tape carry a property type, a market and a call report line you trust?
Why it mattersThe call report has no office line. Sub-limits and stress shocks by type need the tag on every loan.
A strong answer"Yes, with a reason on file for every owner-occupied decision."
4
Property financials
Can you get the latest operating statement, rent roll and appraisal for each income property electronically?
Why it mattersIncome and value per property are the inputs a loan-level test lives on, and they rarely sit in the loan system.
A strong answer"They are in our document system by loan number; about 95% are under 15 months old."
5
Limits and scenarios
Has your board approved written sub-limits by property type and a dated scenario library?
Why it mattersSoftware applies limits and scenarios; it should never choose them. The 2025 OCC orders ask for both.25,19
A strong answer"Version 4 of our limits and version 3 of our scenarios, both approved in April."
6
Findings and questions
Have examiners, loan review or your board asked for more from your concentration reporting or stress tests?
Why it mattersExaminers grade the quality and results of the test.5 Findings bring deadlines and budget.
A strong answer"The last exam asked for segment-level results, and directors keep asking about office."
7
Owner and budget
Is there a named owner of concentration and stress testing with budget to change how it is done?
Why it mattersThe work crosses credit, risk, finance, IT and the board. Without one owner it stalls.
A strong answer"The chief credit officer sponsors it; the chief risk officer owns the scenarios."
8
Governance
Do you have a path to approve AI and models in credit risk work: a view on SR 26-2, vendor due diligence, sign-off and an audit trail?
Why it mattersThe April 2026 guidance leaves generative AI to your own framework and parts of a stress engine may be models.11,16
A strong answer"Model risk has a component-by-component path, and every report needs a named signer."
9
Vision · for reflection
If a director asked at the next committee, "what if office values fell another 10%?", what would have to be true for you to answer before the meeting ended, with the loans named?
Why it mattersYour answer lists the gaps: data, tags, scenarios, tools, people.
A strong answerA short, specific list, for example: "current income on every office loan, maturity dates in the model, and limits recomputed after losses."
Explore, rerun last year's test, or move to monthly runs
0–6
Explore
Fix the basics first: recompute your ratios on tier 1 plus the allowance, tag every loan with a property type and market, list your stale statements, and get a scenario library approved. The OCC's loss-rate spreadsheet may serve you meanwhile.
7–11
Ready to pilot
Rerun last year's stress test loan by loan on the same date and the same scenarios, and compare which loans each method flags. Keep the spreadsheet as a check until the committee is comfortable.
12–16
Ready to implement
Plan monthly runs on business-day timing, the trigger for an extra run on a market move, the board pack, the sign-off chain, the model risk review and the evidence an examiner will ask for.
21 · Questions for any vendor
Checking a CRE stress testing tool's data, concentration ratios and stress method before you sign
In shortAsk every vendor the same questions, us included. The answers show where property income comes from, how the rate shock is timed, whether the denominator is current, who owns the limits and scenarios, and whether you can take any loss apart.
Ask
A good answer
A warning sign
Data
Where does each property's income come from, and how old may it be?
Read from the rent roll and operating statement, with its date; older than policy is marked
"You upload NOI in a spreadsheet"
What happens when a property has no current statement?
The last one is used and the loan is marked; a request is drafted
Income estimated or the loan dropped silently
How are property type and market assigned, and owner-occupied status handled?
From your tape; doubtful cases flagged for the credit file, never changed by the tool
Reclassified automatically
Concentration
Which denominator do the ratios use?
Tier 1 capital plus the allowance on loans, configurable to your call report
Total risk-based capital by default
Are committed amounts and the approved pipeline included?
Funded and committed side by side, with headroom in dollars
Funded balances only
Are ratios recomputed after stress losses?
Every limit, under every scenario
Losses reported, ratios not
Stress method
Which loans get the rate shock?
Only those maturing or repricing inside the horizon, on their own balance and amortization
Every loan, or none
Are shocks set by property type and market?
Yes, from your board's library, with cap rate and income moved separately
One haircut on value
Can we take any loss apart?
Income, debt service, value and loss for every loan, each line opening to its document
A portfolio number with no loans behind it
How is loss given default computed?
Stressed value less selling and workout costs you set, shown on screen
A fixed rate nobody can explain
Governance
Who can change a limit or a scenario?
Only with board approval; changes are versioned proposals
Any user, in a settings page
Which components are models under SR 26-2?
A component-by-component answer you can give your model risk team
"It's all AI" or "none of it is a model"
Which AI models read our documents, where do they run, and does our data train them?
Named, in a region you choose, no training on your data, in writing
"Proprietary AI"
Who signs the report, and what is recorded?
Your people, with every run, change and signature on the record
Reports sent automatically
Proof
Will you rerun last year's test on our book, same date, same scenarios?
Yes, with a loan-by-loan comparison to your spreadsheet
Demo data only
How long does a full run take, and what triggers an extra one?
Measured on your book; a market-move threshold you set
"It depends"
What do examiners receive?
An export of every loan, every assumption with its approval date
Screenshots
We found no published independent comparison of CRE stress testing tools, as of October 2026. Rerunning last year's test on your own book is the fairest comparison, and it tests your current process at the same time.
22 · How to start
How to start: rerun last year's stress test loan by loan in ten weeks
In shortFix the denominator and the tags first, then rerun your last stress test on the same book, date and scenarios, and compare loan by loan. Decide with four numbers. None of these steps commits you to a vendor.
Recompute last quarter's ratios on tier 1 capital plus the allowance on loans, with committed amounts beside funded.
Tag the tape: property type and market for every CRE loan; a reason on file for every owner-occupied decision.
Gather last year's inputs: the tape for the date of your last test, the property files as they stood then, capital, and the scenarios the board approved.
Rerun loan by loan and compare totals, and which loans each method flags.
Decide with four numbers: loans flagged that the spreadsheet missed, share of balance on current income, staff hours per run, and days from month-end to a signed report.
A ten-week pilot ends with a decision on four numbers
Your teamVendor
Recompute ratios; tag the tape
Gather last year's tape, files and scenarios
Load limits, scenarios and loss model
Rerun last year's test loan by loan
Compare with the spreadsheet, loan by loan
Two live month-end runs
Report to the risk committee; decide
Week 0246810
Illustrative · replace with your own numbers
Show the numbers
Activity
From
To
Recompute ratios; tag the tape
0
2
Gather last year's tape, files and scenarios
1
3
Load limits, scenarios and loss model
2
4
Rerun last year's test loan by loan
4
5
Compare with the spreadsheet, loan by loan
5
7
Two live month-end runs
6
9
Report to the risk committee; decide
9
10
Where loan-level testing earns its keep first
Start where values are sensitive and loans refinance inside the horizon
Sensitivity of income and value →
Watch values
Loan by loan
Loss rates
Watch dates
Office near maturityConstructionHotelIndustrialMultifamily
Share maturing or repricing inside the horizon →
Illustrative · replace with your own numbers
Show the numbers
Item
Share maturing or repricing inside the horizon (0–1)
Sensitivity of income and value (0–1)
Office near maturity
0.75
0.76
Construction
0.70
0.57
Hotel
0.18
0.60
Industrial
0.15
0.30
Multifamily
0.30
0.13
Positions are illustrative. Place your own segments with two numbers from your tape: the share of balance maturing or repricing in the horizon, and how far your severe scenario moves income and value.
Loans the loss-rate spreadsheet missed, and days to a signed report
Measure
How
Why
Loans the spreadsheet missed
Loans failing loan by loan that the loss-rate test could not name, with the action each suggests
The case for the method rests on it
Agreement in total
Severe-case loss by both methods, explained difference
The committee will ask which number is right
Current income
Share of balance stressed on a statement within policy
A loan-level test is as good as its inputs
Staff hours per run
Logged by everyone who touched it
The cost case
Days to a signed report
Month-end to signature
Whether monthly is real
The full working-session questions: 18 questions in six groups
Bring credit, risk, finance, loan review, model risk, IT and a board member into one room. Each question says why it matters and what a strong answer and a warning sign look like.
A
Maturities, office exposure and owner-occupied loans in your book
A1
What share of our CRE matures or reprices in the next nine quarters, by property type?
Why it mattersThat is where the rate shock works.
Strong answer · warning sign
A table from the tape.
Nobody has run it.
A2
How much office, hotel and construction do we hold, and against which sub-limits?
Why it mattersThe call report will not tell you office.
Strong answer · warning sign
Tagged and limited.
"Office is somewhere in 1.e."
A3
Which owner-occupied loans are now repaid by rent?
Why it mattersThe label is set once and never revisited.20
Strong answer · warning sign
A tracked segment.
Unknown.
B
The capital denominator and the growth base your ratios use
B1
Which denominator does our report use?
Why it mattersThe examiner uses tier 1 plus the allowance.4
Strong answer · warning sign
Tier 1 plus the allowance on loans.
"Total capital, as always."
B2
Is our growth base restated on today's line definitions?
Why it mattersReclassifications distort 36-month growth.
Strong answer · warning sign
Yes, documented.
Copied from the old call report.
B3
Do we see committed amounts monthly?
Why it mattersDraws cross limits without approvals.19
Strong answer · warning sign
Monthly, against limits.
Funded only, quarterly.
C
Who approved your stress scenarios, and how they differ by property
C1
Who approved our scenarios, when, and why these shocks?
Why it mattersScenarios express the board's appetite.
The 300% CRE guidance, owner-occupied loans and loan-level stress tests, explained one question at a time
In shortThe questions credit and risk teams and buyers search for most, each answered on its own.
What is the 300% CRE concentration guidance?
The 2006 interagency guidance on concentrations in commercial real estate lending names two supervisory criteria: construction and land loans at 100% or more of capital, or total CRE loans at 300% or more of capital with growth of 50% or more over the prior 36 months. A bank that meets either may be identified for further supervisory analysis. The guidance says it does not set lending limits; it expects stronger risk management, including stress testing, from banks with concentrations.
How do you calculate the CRE concentration ratio?
Add call report schedule RC-C items 1.a (construction and land), 1.d (multifamily), 1.e.(2) (non-owner-occupied nonfarm nonresidential) and Memorandum item 3, then divide by tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses on loans and leases. For the construction ratio, use only items 1.a.(1) and 1.a.(2) plus Memorandum item 3. For example, $1,320.3 million of CRE against $412.6 million of capital is 320.0%.
Is the CRE concentration ratio based on total capital or tier 1 capital?
Since March 31, 2020, the OCC, Federal Reserve and FDIC calculate supervisory concentration ratios on tier 1 capital plus the allowance for loan and lease losses, or the allowance for credit losses on loans for banks on CECL, the current expected credit loss standard. The 2006 guidance's original text used total risk-based capital. The change applies only to concentration ratios; a spreadsheet built before 2020 may still use the old measure, so check which one yours divides by.
Is 300% a regulatory limit on CRE lending?
No. The 2006 guidance says it "does not establish specific CRE lending limits", and the OCC's CRE booklet says "These criteria are not CRE lending limits." A bank above 300% is expected to show board-approved limits, management information and stress testing; the binding limits are the ones its own board sets, often by property type.
What counts as non-owner-occupied CRE?
A loan on nonfarm nonresidential property where 50% or more of the repayment comes from rent paid by unrelated third parties, or from the sale, refinancing or permanent financing of the property. Hotels are reported on this line. The decision is made when the loan is made or bought and does not have to be reviewed afterwards, so a bank should track loans whose repayment has since come to depend on rent.
How often do banks have to stress test their CRE portfolio?
The OCC's Bulletin 2012-33 expects community banks of $10 billion or less to stress test loan portfolios at least once a year, over a horizon of at least two years. The 2006 guidance sets no frequency but expects banks with CRE concentrations to stress test. Nothing stops a bank from testing more often, and a bank near its limits or in a moving market has reason to.
What is loan-level CRE stress testing?
Loan-level, or bottom-up, stress testing applies a scenario to each loan's own income, interest rate, maturity and value, computes its stressed debt service coverage and loan to value, and projects a loss where it fails; the portfolio result is the sum. It can name the loans behind the loss and apply a rate shock only to loans that refinance inside the horizon. A top-down test applies loss rates to groups of loans instead.
What scenarios should a CRE stress test use?
No regulator publishes required CRE scenarios for community banks. The OCC asks for a base case and at least one adverse case built from national and local data, with factors by property type such as lower rents and values, higher vacancy, higher cap rates and higher interest rates. The board should approve the scenarios, and the severe case should hit the bank's most vulnerable segments hardest.
Does the OCC still have a CRE stress testing tool?
No. The OCC's page for Bulletin 2012-33 says its stress test tool for income-producing CRE portfolios "was terminated in 2021 and is no longer on the OCC's BankNet website", and no replacement was announced. The bulletin's appendix B still shows a basic loss-rate stress test that a bank can build in a spreadsheet.
How do you calculate CRE concentration after stress losses?
Take the scenario's losses out of capital and divide the CRE book by what is left. For example, $1,320.3 million of CRE against $412.6 million of capital is 320.0%; after $46.2 million of severe-case losses it is about 360%. Because losses reduce the denominator in full, ratios rise under stress even as the book shrinks, and a board should see every limit on that basis.
What should a CRE concentration report to the board include?
Each limit and supervisory marker shown apart, with headroom in dollars and with the approved pipeline added; stratification by property type and market; stress results for every approved scenario with ratios after losses; the loans that drive the loss and why they fail; the assumptions and stale data; and proposed actions. A 2025 OCC formal agreement also asked for monthly monitoring of committed amounts against board limits.
Is CRE stress testing software a model under SR 26-2?
Partly. SR 26-2, issued April 17, 2026, defines a model as a method that applies statistical, economic or financial theory to produce estimates, and excludes spreadsheet arithmetic and deterministic rule-based software. A valuation or default engine is likely a model; applying board-approved shocks and ratios likely is not; generative AI that reads documents or drafts reports is outside the guidance's scope and governed by the bank's own policy.
Why do construction loans count so heavily in CRE concentration?
Construction books grow through draws on loans already approved and have historically lost the most in downturns. A 2013 OCC and Federal Reserve staff study estimated that banks over the 100% construction criterion accounted for about 80% of the FDIC insurance fund's losses from 2007 to 2011. That is why the construction ratio has its own criterion and why boards track it with the approved pipeline added.
How long does a CRE stress test take?
No regulator or study publishes a figure. Most of the time goes to collecting and reading current operating statements, rent rolls and appraisals for each income property, which are not stored in the loan system. One estimate for a book of about 500 loans built by spreadsheet is about six weeks; time your own last test by step to get a baseline.
24 · One-page summary
Classify, divide by capital, stress each loan, recompute after losses: CRE concentration testing in brief
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In shortThe whole guide on one screen: the method, the rules as of October 2026, the readiness bands and the terms.
The method
Classify every loan to its call report line, property type and market; check owner-occupied reasons.
Divide by tier 1 capital plus the allowance on loans; test 100%, 300% and 50% growth and every sub-limit.
Add committed amounts and the approved pipeline; state headroom in dollars.
Stress each loan's income, rate at refinance and value under the board's scenarios; mark stale inputs.
Take losses out of capital; recompute every ratio after the losses.
Name the loans behind the loss, propose actions, review, sign, and minute the decision.
Readiness: score 0–2 on eight questions: 0–6 explore · 7–11 pilot · 12–16 implement.
As of October 2026: 2006 interagency guidance and OCC Bulletin 2012-33 in force · tier 1 plus the allowance since March 31, 2020 · FDIC FIL-64-2023 · SR 26-2 replaced SR 11-7 on April 17, 2026 · OCC concentrations booklet v3.0, September 30, 2026 · capital proposals of March 19, 2026 pending.
14 terms
CRE
Loans repaid from a property's rent, sale or refinancing: construction, multifamily, non-owner-occupied commercial.
Concentration ratio
A group of loans ÷ capital, as a percentage.
Tier 1 plus allowance
The supervisory denominator since 2020: tier 1 capital + allowance for credit losses on loans.
Construction (ADC)
Acquisition, development and construction, and land loans; call report 1.a.
Non-owner-occupied
50% or more of repayment from unrelated tenants' rent, or from sale or refinancing.
36-month growth
Total CRE today against its balance three years earlier.
Sub-limit
A board limit for one property type or market.
Headroom
Limit × capital − loans held: room left, in dollars.
NOI
Net operating income: a property's income less operating costs, before debt service.
DSCR
Debt service coverage: NOI ÷ annual loan payments.
Loan to value
Loan balance ÷ property value.
Cap rate
Capitalization rate: value = NOI ÷ cap rate.
Horizon
The period a stress test covers; at least two years for OCC community banks.
Reverse stress test
Starts from an outcome and asks what would cause it.
25 · Sources
Sources
Accessed October 2026. Regulatory status statements are as of October 2026.
GAO-13-71, "Financial Institutions: Causes and Consequences of Recent Bank Failures", Jan 3, 2013. gao.gov
Interagency, "Concentrations in Commercial Real Estate Lending, Sound Risk Management Practices", 71 FR 74580, Dec 12, 2006. govinfo.gov
OCC Bulletin 2020-29, joint statement on the calculation of credit concentration ratios, Mar 30, 2020. occ.gov
OCC Comptroller's Handbook, "Commercial Real Estate Lending", Version 2.0, March 2022. occ.treas.gov
Federal Reserve, H.8 Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States, Oct 23, 2026. federalreserve.gov
OCC Bulletin 2012-33, "Community Bank Stress Testing: Supervisory Guidance", Oct 18, 2012. occ.gov
Federal Reserve, Supervision and Regulation Report, June 2026, Supervisory Developments, Jun 11, 2026. federalreserve.gov
OCC Bulletin 2015-51, Interagency Statement on Prudent Risk Management for CRE Lending, Dec 18, 2015. occ.gov
FDIC FIL-64-2023, "Managing Commercial Real Estate Concentrations in a Challenging Economic Environment", Dec 18, 2023. fdic.gov
Federal Reserve, SR 26-2, "Revised Guidance on Model Risk Management", Apr 17, 2026. federalreserve.gov
FDIC, "Agencies finalize changes to community bank leverage ratio", Apr 23, 2026. fdic.gov
OCC Bulletin 2026-49, Comptroller's Handbook "Concentrations of Credit" Version 3.0, Sep 30, 2026. occ.gov
Federal Reserve, FDIC, OCC, "Agencies request comment on proposals to modernize the regulatory capital framework", Mar 19, 2026, and fact sheet. federalreserve.gov
OCC Bulletin 2023-23, Policy Statement on Prudent CRE Loan Accommodations and Workouts, Jun 29, 2023. occ.gov
Gupta, Mittal and Van Nieuwerburgh, "Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse", American Economic Review 116(2), Feb 2026. doi.org
OCC, Consent Order, EH National Bank, AA-WE-2025-20, Apr 29, 2025. occ.gov
Friend, Glenos (OCC) and Nichols (Federal Reserve), "An Analysis of the Impact of the Commercial Real Estate Concentration Guidance", Apr 2013. federalreserve.gov
FDIC OIG, "Forward-Looking Supervision", EVAL-18-004, Aug 2018. fdicoig.gov
FRED, Real Estate Loans: Commercial Real Estate Loans, All Commercial Banks (CREACBM027SBOG), updated Oct 23, 2026. fred.stlouisfed.org
MBA, "17% of Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Balances to Mature in 2026", Feb 9, 2026. newslink.mba.org
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, "Banking Supervisors Monitor Risks in CRE Lending", Apr 19, 2024. atlantafed.org
A. Giltner, "Balance Sheet Concentrations: Inevitable or Avoidable?", Community Banking Connections, third release 2024. communitybankingconnections.org
FDIC, Quarterly Banking Profile, Second Quarter 2026. fdic.gov
FDIC, statement on the Quarterly Banking Profile, Second Quarter 2026, Aug 25, 2026. fdic.gov
Glancy and Kurtzman, "Determinants of Recent CRE Distress: Implications for the Banking Sector", FEDS 2024-072, Aug 2024. doi.org
MBA NewsLink, "Trepp: CMBS Delinquency Rate Increases in January, Office Hits New High", Feb 5, 2026. newslink.mba.org
Scotsman Guide, "CMBS delinquencies reach highest level since 2020", Oct 6, 2026. scotsmanguide.com
CRE Daily, "Green Street Index Reveals Sector-Based CRE Pricing Gains", Jul 9, 2026 (Green Street Commercial Property Price Index, June 2026 reading). credaily.com
Cushman & Wakefield, "U.S. Office Recovery Takes Hold as Sublease Space Shrinks and New Construction Hits Multi-Decade Low", Q3 2026 U.S. office MarketBeat release, October 2026; also reported by Scotsman Guide, Oct 20, 2026. cushmanwakefield.com
MBA NewsLink, "Commercial, Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding Increased by $42.9B in Second Quarter", Sep 30, 2026. newslink.mba.org
Federal Reserve, Financial Stability Report, May 2026, Asset Valuations, May 8, 2026. federalreserve.gov
Crosignani and Prazad, "Extend-and-Pretend in the U.S. CRE Market", NY Fed Staff Report 1130, Oct 2024, rev. Jun 2026. newyorkfed.org
Federal Reserve, Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, July 2026, Table 1; FRED SUBLPDRCSC. federalreserve.gov
Jiang, Matvos, Piskorski and Seru, "Monetary Tightening, Commercial Real Estate Distress, and US Bank Fragility", NBER w31970, Dec 2023, rev. Dec 2024. nber.org
BLS, Occupational Employment and Wages, May 2025 (13-2054 Financial Risk Specialists; 13-2041 Credit Analysts). bls.gov
BLS, Employer Costs for Employee Compensation, June 2026, Sep 9, 2026. bls.gov
Next step
See it on your own CRE book.
Explore the solution, or bring last year's stress test with the loan tape and property files behind it, and we will rerun it loan by loan with you, every number traced to its loan.
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